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April 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat
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Christopher B
3:05
Hello Roger Conrad
York Water Company had a public offering of shares I believe at $28.50/share
What is your viewpoint on YORW The York Water Company?
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:05
Hi Christopher. York is an extremely solid, small regulated water utility operating in rural and small town Pennsylvania. Up to now, it's had multiple opportunities to absorb smaller systems to gain scale in a very favorable regulatory environment.

The stock took a hit from the offering on dilution concern. But it will provide relatively low cost capital (the yield is a little over 3%) to keep growing by investing without weakening the balance sheet.

In my view, York has been too expensive to be worth buying for several years. But after selling off under $30 again, it's worth a look. I think the end game is probably a takeover--possibly by American Water after it merges with Essential Utilities, which has an expected close of Q1 2027.
Lawman
3:11
What are your thoughts on the ARC sale? Do you think it will close? Are there any other non-US oil and gas companies you think could be acquisition targets?
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:11
Hi Lawman. It looks like a decent deal for ARC shareholders. You get cash as well as stock in a super major, which despite some stumbles the past couple years--the Venture Global lawsuit being one--still has a very bright future in this energy upcycle. I don't see a lot of hurdles to the expected second half 2026 close, given the nice premium and the strong support of the Canadian government for the export sector.

I think this deal also highlights the fact that Canada's nascent energy export business is heating up and that major players want a bigger piece of it. There are numerous other possible takeover targets, including Peyto Energy and Vermilion Energy. You can find more on them in the "Canada and Australia" coverage universe.
Lawman
3:16
EPD and the other MLP's are continuing to go up. Do you think it is too late to buy any MLP's, and if so, what are your favorite MLP's to buy at today's prices?
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:16
I don't think it's too late, though you need to be selective and patient, as obviously the prices were lower before Operation Epic Fury. Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) is trading right around our highest recommended entry point of 20 and Plains is still under 26.50.

There is a case to be made that OEF has changed the game and earned North American midstreams higher multiples. And we will be giving everything a hard look as Q1 results and guidance is released the next few weeks. And we may raise some of the buy-in targets on that basis by mid-May.
Dan N.
3:24
Good morning Roger - thanks for hosting your live chats.
 
Did XIFR recently issue new shares? The press release was not entirely clear to me whether these were ordinary shares. I thought management had promised that the recovery plan required no new shares to be issued. Given the deflated share price, any meaningful fundraising by issuing new shares would be heavy dilution, yes?
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:24
Thanks for joining us today Dan.

XPLR Infrastructure--formerly NextEra Energy Partners--did file a $300 mil "mixed shelf" offering in late March. The company's primary goal since suspending dividends last year is to retire the remaining 3 CEPFs--convertible equity preferred financing. The plan management has stated is to do that entirely with the proceeds of asset sales and free cash flow--basically with zero reliance on capital markets. But if they are able to raise capital on economic terms, they can speed up the process and possibly keep all the assets.

The shelf offering is an opportunity to do that--possibly with equity but more likely debt. But remember that NextEra Energy the parent has a majority stake and is calling the shots--they won't sell stock if there's real dilution.

The company will issue Q1 results and update guidance May 7. I expect to see more progress then and intend to hold onto the position, which does seem to be moving in the right direction.
Jeff B
3:28
Hi Roger,  Would you advise trimming a little of EPD.  The dividend is down to 5.72% based on the run up.
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:28
Hi Jeff. I don't think Enterprise has quite crossed that valuation threshold yet for a possible trimming. Our long-standing take profits price has been 40. And after the company's generally solid Q1 results, I think that's an appropriate price for selling some shares, especially for investors with particularly large positions and big profits. But this company is definitely in the right place at the right time for the growth of US energy exports. We saw it in those Q1 numbers and the guidance raise for 2026. And I think there's a lot more opportunity ahead.
JT
3:33
HI Elliott, "The Overbought Myth" was very insightful, and I would like your take on whether US stocks (QQQ, SPY) has taken back the leadership from international equities (VXUS, EFA, EEM)?  Last April when stocks recovered from the tariff panic, international stocks were rocketing higher breaking out to new highs in record time with no pullbacks, while US stocks were slow in getting back to their previous highs.  This time, it seems to be in reverse with US stocks rocketing to new highs with no pullbacks while international stocks are slow to get back to highs and are pulling back.

The main question is should we be repositioning ourselves in favor of US stocks now.
AvatarElliott Gue
3:33
Thank you, I'm glad you enjoyed it. For those of you who may have missed it, this is a new weekly video series I am doing over on my Substack publication called "Sunday Deep Dive" -- it's free if you want to check it out. Here's the "Overbought Myth" link https://freemarketspeculator.substack.com/p/the-overbought-myth-why-re.... At any rate, I mention this also because one of the topics I'm thinking about covering in this Sunday's "Deep Dive" is Latin America and the region's growing importance a "resource sanctuary" not just for oil/natural gas, but also copper, iron ore, precious metals and even agricultural products like soybeans. My view is that the US could lead for a time (particularly tech/growth/AI beneficiaries) as it did from late March into early November of last year.  Also, the ongoing Iran conflict and elevated oil prices act as a tailwind for the US dollar (headwind for international stocks) as a safe haven.  However, my intermediate to longer term view is that we're in the midst of a
AvatarElliott Gue
3:33
multi-year cycle that favors a weaker dollar, stronger commodity prices and global outperformance relative to the US. Just as we saw last year, I think what you're seeing is a temporary short-term burst of US outperformance within that longer term decline.  As so often happens sentiment got a little extreme early this year (bullish euro, cable, even EM currencies and bearish dollar) and we're now seeing that extreme bear on the dollar unwind a bit to more neutral levels. However, I don't think this longer-term trend is over, the global trade has legs. Sometimes these long-term trend trades can be frustrating because they take time to play out and there are counter trend moves. But, I don't think the trend is even close to done.
Dan N.
3:34
Quick updates on coverage. Were you still planning to add GWRS? And when the IPO goes through, would you want to add geothermal co Fervo?
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:34
Yes to Global Water Resources (NSDQ: GWRS), the water utility. I will have to take a look at Fervo. I do have one geothermal energy company already in coverage--Ormat Technologies (NYSE: ORA). It's a little expensive right now in my view. And I expect the IPO will probably benefit from the same premium for geothermal companies.

That said, I do think we have to be careful about the hype factor for geothermal in general. Mainly, this is not a power source that's going to replace coal, gas, solar or anything else--no matter how good the tax credits are. It can be very profitable with the right contracts. And Ormat just got a huge boost on a recent renewal. But it's geographically constrained--not so many places have the needed geological activity. And those that do are a danger to facilities.
Lawman
3:41
What would happen to energy stocks if crude prices continue to appreciate?
AvatarElliott Gue
3:41
Energy producers generally benefit from higher oil prices however, there's a limit. If prices were to continue rising, I suspect the market's focus will shift on the rising probability of a global recession caused by high energy prices. SO, I suspect, that most stocks would sell off in that scenario including energy. Look at 2008 as a corollary -- in early May, the S&P 500 Energy Index peaked even though oil prices continued to rally into early July to those historic highs near $150/bbl. This is not our base case, but in terms of a hypothetical scenario, that's what I'd look for.
Lawman
3:42
Any thoughts on National Energy Services Reunited (NESR), BKV Corp (BKV), and Archrock (AROC)?
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:42
NESR and AROC are up a lot this year already, BKV not as much. In the compression sector, we've covered the Energy Transfer affiliate USAC for some time, currently rate it a hold. It's the kind of business that does well when companies are ramping up production. That will ultimately happen in this cycle. But the gains in AROC and USAC may be anticipating something that will take longer. As for NESR, we prefer SLB. But as Elliott's recent EIA piece highlights, we are increasingly bullish on services in general. And there's a lot of business to be had in the Middle East, however OEF comes out.
Dan N.
3:45
Speaking of coverage, how often does the coverage universe get culled or purged? Is there a periodic reckoning, or does it just happen organically when companies merge or go bankrupt?
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:45
That's pretty much how it works. Mergers and bankruptcies are the primary way names come off the board. Strategic moves that eliminate the business fitting the coverage universe are another way.
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:45
And sometimes we replace companies with others that we want to bring to your attention.
Gary
3:47
Is future very cheap Permian natural gas a threat to Hainsville which has much higher production costs and will this effect EXE future plans?
AvatarElliott Gue
3:47
No, not in my view. For now, Permian gas is stranded due to the lack of pipeline capacity.  The last big pipeline to come into service, Matterhorn, helped for a couple of months in late 2024 but then was quickly overwhelmed. New pipes are coming into service end 2026 and in 2027 and 2028, but I'd expect this gas to be quickly absorbed. Given sky-high global gas prices (driving LNG export demand) + growing demand from US AI generation + Mexican demand, I believe that gas prices will need to remain at levels ($4/MMBtu) that incentivize Haynesville operators to produce. Commodities are marginal cost businesses -- price doesn't track the lowest cost producer, it tracks the last incremental MCF of gas. We're going to need Haynesville volumes to meet all the demand.
Dan N.
3:55
Any insights from the AES annual meeting? Management has been so silent since the buyout was announced, so this would be the first venue where they would have to answer questions and answer dissatisfied shareholders (like me). I personally plan to vote against the buyout unless the offer gets substantially sweetened. Given that most of the purchase price is assumed debt, offering another $2 or 3 per share would barely move the overall price.
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:55
Yes, I think they've basically gone to ground since realizing investors weren't too happy with the deal.

There was an SEC filing dated April 14, announcing what looks like a relatively minor executive shuffle. But the Q4 earnings call was never rescheduled. And while Q1 results and updated guidance are expected May 1, management has never confirmed that date. We may just see a 10-Q filed and that will be it--as that's the legal minimum.

My view is management and the buyers are expecting a lot of pushback and are trying behind the scenes to round up support from big institutions that hold much of the stock. They may or may not be seeing success--they still haven't received approval for change of ownership from two bond issues, and barely squeaked through with 52% of the other.

The worst we do sticking with AES and voting no to the current deal is a return of 10% if it does close. We do better if the offer is raised. And while the stock will likely dip if the deal fails, it should go higher ultimately.
Frank
3:55
Venture Global seems to be doing the same thing that got them sued in the past, selling LNG on the spot market before official commissioning. I hope that their counterparties are OK with this, this time around?? It's a similar situation to the Ukranian invasion
AvatarElliott Gue
3:55
Venture Global's contracts specifically allow them to sell LNG on the spot market before official commissioning. Back in 2021, there were delays in the start up of Calcasieu Pass (CP 1) as it was VG's first project and they had trouble with their heat recovery steam generators. So, these technical delays pushed the official commercial operation date into early 2025. This was what attracted the arbitrations not the fact that they sold gas before commissioning. And, as we've seen, even with that caveat, they've won more arbitrations than they lose, including against Shell's efforts to take the conflict to NY State courts. More importantly, since their first terminal, they have actually tightened up their technical "game" and have been moving from FID to first gas to commissioning in record time and in-line with or ahead of schedule. Finally, you can expect they have worked with their lawyers to tighten up their contracts even more to prevent this type of arbitration drama in future.
Jack
3:59
Hi:  Venture Global had gone up significantly, and subsequently has pulled back in price....  I am wondering if this is due to their signing of contracts for the exportation of LNG at the expense of exporting at the spot price?  I had read that they had 30 to 40% of their LNG for export available to take advantage of the spot price.... To your knowledge, has this changed?  Thanks.
AvatarElliott Gue
3:59
No, there is no change. What VG does is they sign long-term contracts that start once the project is officially commissioned and put into commercial service. However, since VG uses a modular design -- lots of smaller LNG liquefaction trains built largely off-site -- they actually start producing gas (LNG) before the projects are officially commissioned. In that interim period, their contracts allow them to sell LNG at spot. So, this gives them rolling spot exposure as they bring new projects online. And, I think by the early 2030s it's quite possible they will be even bigger than Cheniere (LNG).
Dan N.
4:00
Interesting to see that the price of BEPC crashed this week, now finally close to a 10% premium compared to BEP partnership shares. Do you know of any event that caused the correction?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:00
As I said answering a pre-chat question, there was no  business development to precipitate the selloff. And both BEP and BEPC look like they're going to close up about 3% today. The big date is tomorrow when Brookfield announces Q1 results and updates guidance. But there's nothing to indicate anything but another solid result, following onto what we saw for Q4.

I don't think there's much reason to buy BEPC over BEP at this time--given the discount for BEP and the fact the dividend and ownership are the same. And BEP's dividend is tax advantaged as well. But both BEPC and BEP are below my highest recommended entry point of 40.

A larger point is big daily corrections like these have actually become pretty commonplace this year. The key is always to ask the question why the drop--as you have done. And more often than not with a stock like BEP/BEPC, it's not a reason with any staying power.
Dan N.
4:09
I expect capital spending plans take a long time to shift, but are there already any signals for how energy infrastructure plans will shift in the wake of the Iran disruptions? Considering both the damaged infrastructure that will take years to build and the indefinite disruptions to shipping (the reliability of which many nations might not fully trust ever again)? What stocks do you think haven't yet priced in anticipated shifts and growth opportunities?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:09
All I've seen so far from the utilities is continuing increases in CAPEX plans. Entergy Corp (NYSE: ETR), for example, announced a boost in 4-year CAPEX to $57 bil, up from $43 bil the previous quarter. The primary driver was locked in contracts with data center operators that are expected to produce customer savings--not much impact from Operation Epic Fury though ETR's service territory is the Gulf Coast and US energy exports I think are going to get a multi-year boost from the force majeure declared by Qatar et al.

As far as oil and gas infrastructure, we are taking a look at North American midstream companies for possible boosts in buy-in prices. I do agree there has been reputational damage to Middle East energy producers and we already see Asian and European buyers locking up other sources, particularly North America.

I also believe nuclear power and renewable energy is going to get a lift globally from this. They can't replace oil and gas. But there will be investment and it will be a good business.
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:11
Nuclear power stocks except Brookfield Renewable are pricey and very hypey right now--especially SMRs companies. But there are a number of attractive renewable energy companies that haven't really participated to the extent I think they will. I mentioned the offshore wind company Orsted in our MoneyShow presentation in Hollywood, FL earlier this month. It's up a lot this year but I think has a long way to go.
Tommy L
4:15
With the significant increase in energy prices, I am surprised by the decrease in EXE.  Your thoughts, and how do you compare EXE and EQT currently?
AvatarElliott Gue
4:15
EXE and EQT are both gas producers in the US and US natural gas prices remain low right now at under $3/MMBtu. Unlike crude oil, and global natgas prices (ie Japan-Korea Market (JKM) and Netherlands-TTF). US natural gas storage is above the 5-year seasonal average and there are some concerns this just won't be hot enough to eliminate that overhang. Longer term, we see the ramp up of new LNG facilities, growing demand for gas to generate electricity and increased exports to Mexico coupled with the fact the US's main LNG competitor (Qatar) is offline/damaged to add up to a bullish picture for gas prices longer term. When gas prices are low (like now) investors will favor the lowest-cost producers (EQT is the lowest cost dry gas producer in the US). That's because EQT operates in the Marcellus Shale. EXE operates in both the Marcellus and the Haynesville. The latter is higher cost, but is centered on Louisiana, which is ideal for the LNG export market. SO, we believe it makes sense to have some exposure to these
AvatarElliott Gue
4:15
two basins -- Marcellus and Haynesville -- so we recommend a mix of EXE and EQT.
Lawman
4:27
EIX has been going higher and higher> Is it still a buy at this price, or should I wait for a pullback?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:27
The big issue with Edison is settling claims from the Eaton Fire while staying financially whole. If it can do that, we should see the stock return to a premium sector valuation, which should equate to a price close to $90. The business is otherwise healthy, with regulator approved rate base investment boosting earnings and squarely aligned with California's electrification goals.

During the earnings call this week, management focused on measures it's taking to ensure against future wildfires and updated it Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program: Of 30,000 potential plaintiffs, 3,100 claims have been filed, and it's extended 1,500 offers worth $500 mil to Eaton victims that are forgoing lawsuits. It also noted advancing measures in the state to reform the current system, which basically holds utilities as the insurance companies of last resort.

That still leaves a lot of lawsuits. The worst case is Edison equipment is implicated with igniting the fire and also found guilty of negligence.
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