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AvatarRoger Conrad
4:28
If Edison is found guilty, it would owe about $4 bil to the state, with the Wildfire Fund paying the rest. If no negligence, the Fund will cover all damages.
4:29
The lawsuits are still there. And management still isn't prepared to offer a hard estimate of all liability. But at this point, it looks like liability is limited. And in anything but the worst case, EIX should move a lot higher. I still rate the stock a buy at 75 or lower.
Mary
4:34
Hi guys. I was reading up above that Warsh has a 'new' way of calculating inflation. How will that affect my I-Bonds?
AvatarElliott Gue
4:34
Currently, the Fed uses core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) to measure inflation. So, this is basically PCE excluding food and energy prices. Warsh has discussed using trimmed mean measures instead. An example is the 16% trimmed mean the Cleveland Fed calculates. The basic idea is that a trimmed mean would INclude food and energy prices.  Rather than arbitrarily excluding energy prices, the Cleveland Fed's trimmed mean excludes components that are above the 92nd percentile or below the 8th percentile -- it excludes components that are either spiking or plunging, the idea being that it gives you a cleaner, less distorted view of how inflation is progressing. In practice, while they technically track core PCE, the Fed does look at alternate measures such as trimmed means and median inflation rates as well. However, this has no impact on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) or Series I Savings Bonds  -- inflation linked bonds are indexed to headline CPI (CPI-U, Consumer Price Index for all
AvatarElliott Gue
4:34
Urban Consumers). Warsh is proposing a change in what the Fed tracks, which is already a different benchmark to what underlies TIPS and I-Bonds.
susan p
4:37
Hi guys, The recent focus on oil service cos was well done and appreciated the 4.16 issue's back-and-forth format, as a way to convey your thinking. Wondering if you have head anything more about Western Midstream and potential involvement with Kinetick Holdings? Similarly, has Hess Midstream continued to be "uninteresting" to Chevron or any other buyer? As always, your insight is appreciated.
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:37
Hi Susan. I still believe the end game for Hess Midstream is a full privatization by primary owner Chevron (NYSE: CVX). It's what CVX did with Noble Midstream earlier in the decade after buying Noble--which it prized for its eastern Mediterranean gas assets. And doing so will reduce CVX' cost in the Bakken and well as improve flexibility. it could also be accomplished for no more than $4 to $5 bil in new CVX stock, a drop in the bucket for a nearly $400 bil company that's likely to announce record free cash flow tomorrow for Q1.

I don't have a seat on CVX' board. And I'm no long distance mind reader. But the super major's need to sell assets as it planned following the Hess Corp merger is considerably less now at $100 plus oil. I can't speak to the timing of a deal. But I think HESM at 35 or lower is a solid proposition until one happens.

Western and Kinetik both release Q1 earnings and updates guidance on May 6. But at this point, the merger rumors of earlier this year are just that. Still like WES at 40.
Lawman
4:41
Is NEE a buy at this level, or should I wait for a pullback?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:41
Love the company--NextEra Energy is the best in class electric utility in the US, and probably the world. And they keep coming up with ways to surprise us positively--record renewable energy and storage backlog at the unregulated Resources unit (4 GW plus orders in Q1), renewed licenses at the St Lucie, FL reactors, the 10 GW natural gas deal in PA and Texas that will be wholly financed by the US and Japanese governments etc.

I do think a stock price pushing $100 is a little expensive. But NEE is a keeper for the long-term.
Lawman
4:44
Is PBA a buy at this price, or should I wait for a pullback?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:44
I think Pembina is a little expensive ahead of Q1 results and guidance on May 7, though it's entirely possible we may boost the highest recommended entry point from the current 42 depending on what's said. The funding deal with private capital firm Apollo Global Management is a good indication growth is only starting to pick up. And no midstream company is better positioned right now to benefit from increasing Canadian energy exports to Asia.
Lawman
4:49
What will happen to MLP's if the Iran war ends, and the Stright of Hormuz is opened?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:49
It seems likely the stocks will slip back a bit. That's what happened the last time victory was declared in Operation Epic Fury.

On the other hand, North American midstream companies continue to practice shale discipline, just as producers do. That means every new project is pre-contracted and pre-funded--so they predictably boost cash flow at startup as we saw with Enterprise Products Partners' (NYSE: EPD) very strong Q1 results. So even if oil prices fall back to where they were before OEF, their cash flow, dividends and balance sheets stay strong.

And there's also the fact that North American oil and gas have likely earned a premium for safety--following the force majeure on contracts from Qatar and Middle Eastern producers. They're going to get a lot of contracts from Asian and European buyers anxious to lock down more secure supply.
Lawman
4:53
Why has VET fared so poorly even with oil and gas pricies as high as they are? Is this a buy?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:53
Vermilion stock is actually up more than 60% so far in 2026 and 133% including dividends the last 12 months.

The company went through some restructuring earlier in this decade, some of it relating to Europe's short lived effort to end domestic oil and gas production. But the company should report another solid result for Q1 on May 6. And we will likely see another dividend increase this summer.

We track it in the Canada and Australia coverage universe in EIA. Current advice is buy at 15 or lower.
Lawman
4:59
Is the AES sale likelly to close? If it does not close, what would happen to the stock price?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:59
I think there's a risk AES stock will drop a couple points if the takeover fails. And that could happen if shareholders reject the offer, holders of 2 bond series don't sign on to the consent solicitation, the Qatari sovereign wealth fund backs out of the acquiring consortium for any reason or regulators in Ohio vote it down--Indiana is likely to approve.

That said, count me in the camp that says this offer is too low. And if the deal fails, management could well be ousted if it follows through on a threat to cut dividends. I would look for a return to the high 20s eventually for the stock if the company remains independent.

Bottom line: We get about a 10% return from here for holding to a successful close. And we could get a lot more if it fails--though we'll probably have to be patient.
Mike
5:00
Quick q.  While shel is not part of your model portfolios- what are your thoughts?   I bought shares years ago that have stagnated- but have gone up recently.
AvatarElliott Gue
5:00
Generally, the European majors -- SHEL, BP, TTE -- have underperformed the US supermajors, XOM and CVX. A lot of that is because XOM and CVX continued to invest in new oil and gas production projects during the 2018-2020 era, the bottom of the cycle for energy while the European majors pivoted away from oil and gas to invest in the "energy transition." The supermajors' traditional advantage is that they're big and have strong balance sheets, which allows them the flexibility to invest in new projects at the bottom of the cycle when costs are lowest. This is a tremendous advantage because investments made when costs are low turn into new cash flow as the cycle inevitably turns higher. And since conventional projects take 5+ years to move from discovery to FID to first oil/gas, investing at the bottom of the cycle is how you get new production to take advantage of the rise in prices. A good example is XOM's Guyana project, which it discovered in 2015. Guyana is now a world-class asset and XOM has visibility
AvatarElliott Gue
5:00
to years of production growth ahead. The European majors just didn't invest in oil and gas and are now fighting the decline curves on their existing assets. SHEL reversed course on its energy transition strategy a couple of years before BP, so they're a bit better off. However, it's still a headwind and there's no easy way to fix it because projects take time to develop.
Lawman
5:02
As between T and VZ, which do you prefer? Are they both buys at these levels, or should I wait for lower prices?
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:02
I like them both at these prices. Both are coming off strong Q1 results and guidance--Verizon actually raised substantially.

I think both stocks are cheap, in part because of a misconception that SpaceX will try to a fourth national wireless competitor in the US--a move that would depress margins for all and very likely needed system investment as well.
Lawman
5:07
Whara are your thoughts on PALAF? Are there any uranium stocks you think should be purchased at this time?
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:07
I think if you're going to buy a uranium miner, you should stick with a consistently profitable one like Cameco (TSX: CCO, NYSE: CCJ). But my overall view is these stocks have been hyped up on the misconception that there's going to suddenly be a meaningful increase in nuclear power output in North America in the next decade.

If enough money is thrown at developing new technology, the industry will eventually have a model utilities and other power producers can take to investors and regulators with a (1) hard cost projection (2) hard projection for completion time. But the cost overruns at Vogtle showed that doesn't exist now. And that means the soonest we'll see new nuclear in quantity in the US is at least a decade out.

Buy some good oil and gas stocks instead. They're making money now.
Lawman
5:09
Thoughts on buying Gold at this level?
AvatarElliott Gue
5:09
I recommended buying gold, silver and some mining stocks a few years ago in Creating Wealth/Free Market Speculator. We've also traded in in my options trading product, Elliott's Options as well as CT Trader. We did recommend taking profits across all of these services between late 2025 and early 2026 as prices ramped. I do retain a smaller position in Creating Wealth/FMS and am considering adding to both SLV and GLD as my view is that the ultimate peak of the precious metals bull market lies ahead, it was just that the parabolic move earlier this year was unsustainable, particularly for silver. So, we haven't yet, but still recommend GLD/SLV and an add is definitely on my radar. screen.
AvatarElliott Gue
5:09
Note that, just recently, we did recommend a trade in Elliott's options, a (bullish) put credit spread on SLV). A major component of this reco is that silver prices do tend to follow copper when it breaks higher. I covered that relationship here: https://open.substack.com/pub/freemarketspeculator/p/when-copper-leads...
Lawman
5:09
RFAAF took over Artsis that I bought on uour reccommendation. Should I hold onto RFAAF, or sell it at this time?
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:09
Artis was a concentrated real estate entity. RFA is more diversified but pays a far lower yield. I think it's probably a good idea to move onto something else.
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:10
The REIT Sheet has my best ideas on REITs. Call Sherry anytime M-F, 9-5 ET at 877-302-0749 if you want to get a look.
Lawman
5:13
Do you think it is wise to buy high flier AI plays s such as Micron, Invidia, GOOGL, or some of the other AI rockets, or do you the share prices of these stocks to come down in the coming months?
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:13
I think if you own any financial instrument with a stock element, odds are you already own a lot of these artificial intelligence plays.

I'm much more interested in the picks and shovels of the gold rush--mainly energy companies (utilities, oil and gas, renewable energy), or an undervalued data center owner like American Tower (NYSE: AMT). See my REIT Sheet for more on that one.
Alex M.
5:20
Hi Roger.  It looks like California Water Service Group (CWT) is reacting to today's earnings release.  The stock is down quite a bit.  What are your thoughts on the results?  Is the stock getting interesting at these levels?  Thanks.
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:20
Hi Alex. California Water is still trading above my highest recommended entry point of 40. And though I continue to believe it's a quality company--and potential takeover target--I would still wait for a dip to that price to buy.

The reaction to the news today looks pretty severe (-7%). But this kind of volatility has actually become commonplace this year--including in stocks like CWT where we're not used to it.

In this case, the company's Q1 results were in line with management's previous guidance--so no real surprises. Earnings were lower primarily because California regulators are only now deciding its 2024 General Rate Case--so revenue has continued to lag expenses. It now appears to have ruled for a 10.9% boost in 2026, 4.7% in 2027 and 5.1% in 2028, along with some "key revenue stabilization mechanisms." So overall not a bad result. And rates are retroactive to Jan 1--so Q2 will get a double benefit.
Hans
5:24
Elliott/Roger,  With Oil now at $105 and oil stocks close to their highs,is it now time to take some profit and buy again at a later date when everything is somewhat normal again with oil at $ 70 to 80
AvatarElliott Gue
5:24
We recommended booking half your gains in VLO and KMI a few weeks ago. We also publish a table each month recommending levels at which we'd consider taking partial profits. We definitely also recommend thinking about booking gains in incremental mov rather than as an absolute -- sell partial profits, rather than the entire position. More broadly, not all energy stocks will react the same way when prices come in -- as we explained in this week's lengthy update, services stocks have actually tended to benefit from deescalation days because, once the conflict ends and oil prices pull back, these companies will; get started un lucrative work to repaid damaged infrastructure and restart wells (among other reasons). SLB, in particular, is still under our buy under price and is starting to make a move to break higher now that earnings are in the rearview mirror. As for producers -- I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull back on some sort of deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, they're not really
AvatarElliott Gue
5:24
valued today based on $100/bbl+ oil prices, they're valued for more like $70 to $75/bbl oil. And I think any pullbacks are likely to be pretty modest in scope and duration.
Alex M.
5:25
It looks like DT Midstream is up pretty substantially over the last few years.  Is it time to take some money off the table at these levels?  Thanks.
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:25
Taking some money off the table with DTM makes sense to me. The midstream C-Corps have really run over the past year. The business case is solid. And DTM has strong Q1 results and guidance today. But the C-Corp midstream like DTM now trade at huge premiums to MLPs like Energy Transfer that are not justified on a business value standpoint--and therefore likely just reflect investors' aversion to filing K-1s. I would take money off the table in any high priced C-Corp and invest in the handful of MLPs still trading below our highest recommended entry points. If nothing else, there will be a much higher yield.
Gary
5:35
DNOW provides much needed equipment and services to the energy infrastructure rebuild that will be coming in full force.  Is this a company you cover or would recommend?
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