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April 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat
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AvatarElliott Gue
5:35
I don't think it's in a coverage universe, but I am familiar with them and the company, MRC Global, they merged with late last year.  If you're asking about the rebuild of Middle East infrastructure, DNOW does have some exposure, and they have offices in Saudi and UAE (I believe) but traditionally it has mainly been a US business -- for the full year 2025 I think something like 90% of sales were to the US and Canada. If you're asking about US infrastructure build out then they have more exposure -- still some upstream, but also downstream (refineries) and midstream (pipelines). They've had some technical issues related to the merger, which is what the stock was hit back in February, but they should be a longer-term beneficiary. We do have significant exposure to these themes in the EIA model portfolios including BKR and SLB highlighted in this week's detailed update.
JT
5:39
HI Elliott, are you still bullish on BTU?  It has been hit hard recently. Has anything changed fundamentally or is this just the   typical fluctuations of a volatile stock?  Can you share your price targets and support levels?
AvatarElliott Gue
5:39
We have only recommended BTU in the trading services, CT Trader and Elliott's Options. In CT Trader we have a smallish position and still recommend it. It has been dragged down by weakness in gas prices (which make gas a more attractive fuel), so I'd like to see a rally back over $28 soon though it's still holding on to that support around $25. In my view, we will see a rally in gas into the summer and that should help BTU.  In EO, we recommended calls back in January, got a quick double (2x) and sold half the calls to lock in a break-even on the trade. The stock reversed lower and so we ended up booking a breakeven. I am watching for a break above $28 to perhaps recommend the calls again.
Lawman
5:43
Is AAPL a buy pre-earnings?
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:43
Apple trades at 34.4X earnings and a yield of less than 0.4%--a great company with a stock price wholly unmoored from business value. At 6.5% of the S&P 500, it's a momentum stock where the daily action is heavily influenced by algorithmic trading that's been trained to respond to headlines.

As it turned out, Apple reported what I would consider solid FYQ2 results after the close. And the action in the so-called after market has been positive so far.
Frank
5:44
I am a recent subscriber too EIA and compiled a shopping list of things for my watchlist and then Iran happened. Everything immediately went ballistic. Is there anything still reasonably priced that has good potential. I see VG is reasonable and EXE was trending down before their earning release
AvatarElliott Gue
5:44
Yes, a lot of the recommendations have popped above our buy under prices recently. I suppose that's a "good" problem to have, but one we will continue to address in upcoming issues. Specifically, in some cases (like VLO, KMI recently) we may recommend taking half the position off the table in names that look extended and stretched based on near-term fundamentals.  We also may raise the buy targets in names where it's justifiable. And, much as with this week's long update, we are trying to highlight areas that still look buyable at current prices.
AvatarElliott Gue
5:44
SLB is a classic example, a name that is still under our $60 buy target and we believe will actually benefit once the conflict is resolved and oil prices back of their recent highs. VG, EXE (gas) are two other examples that you mentioned.
Tommy L
5:51
Hi Roger and Elliott, I am a long time subscriber to your various newsletters (CUI, CUI+, Reit Sheet) and sincerely appreciate your perspective.  A couple of questions at this time--what is your current perspective on MAA, a REIT that had slipped around 10% so far this year?  Second, AES has also been a laggard during this period of advances in energy and utility prices.  What do you see down the road for AES?
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:51
Hi Tommy. The big issue for AES is the takeover. As I've said several times in the chat, I think there are several reasons why the deal could fail. And my view is the offer of $15 in cash is pretty much low ball. But that said, we'll still make about 10% from the current price including dividends paid by holding to a successful close. And if the deal fails, we should see a higher price down the road.

I've only just glanced at the Mid-America Apartment Communities results issued earlier today. But from what I saw, there are some real signs of stabilization--including a year over year boost in net operating income. The blended lease rate also appears to be flattening out(-0.3% versus -1.7% in Q4). And turnover dropped to an all time low. Those are all great signs that the market is slowly but surely tightening. And danger to the dividend is falling. I want to look at the results more closely--a lot going on today. But my inclination is to restore MAA to a buy next month.
Jack
5:59
Hi:  Do you see much upside potential for ETP?  I am wondering whether their existing contracts limit their upside potential from the increasing utilization and exportation of natural gas.  What stock price do you think ETP can eventually achieve and over what time frame?  Thanks.
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:59
Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) will release Q1 results and update guidance on May 5. And I look for another healthy increase in throughputs and cash flow, as the company continues to bring new assets on line on time and budget, as well as realize synergies from previous acquisitions.

I don't see their contracts as limiting upside potential from rising exports of LNG and NGLs (natural gas liquids). Renewals are likely to be at increasing rates. And I expect to hear about progress signing more contracts with data centers, power producers etc--and possibly a partner for the currently shelved Lake Charles LNG export project.

Our highest recommended entry price for ET is currently 22. We may raise that depending on what's announced. Ultimately, this should be a $30 plus stock sometime during this upcycle. And in the meantime the yield is near 7% and growing.
Thomas C
5:59
Thank you Roger that makes good sense
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:59
Thank you for the question.
Jack
6:05
Hi Roger:  I am disappointed that AES seems to have been left in the dust, while other electricity producers seem to be benefiting from the AI craze.  I am not aware of having been contacted to vote on their buyout....  Did I miss something?  Why has not another company come along to buy them out?  I don't think we have much time left before they are taken over at what seems like a low price.  Thanks.
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:05
Hi Jack. There's been no shareholders vote yet on the takeover of AES by Blackrock, CALPERs and the Qatar sovereign wealth fund. Holders of 3 bond issues have been asked to sign onto a "consent solicitation" for a change of ownership. As of now, one has approved by a razor thin 52% while the other two are still in limbo. That's a pretty good sign management has a lot of selling to do, even before it seeks regulatory approval.

As to the question of a counterbid, it's basically impossible to launch a hostile takeover of a regulated utility or company that owns a regulated utility. And as of now, management has accepted the Blackrock bid. AES' far flung holdings and business combining regulated and contracted operations could also be a deterrent.  

In any case, there's not a lot of risk to holding on to see what happens. I think the bid is low. But we'll still get a return of about 10% from here just to hold to a successful close.
Jack
6:09
Hi Roger:  At today's prices, what Canadian Energy company do you feel has the most upside potential to capitalize on the increased export of LNG from the West Coast of Canada?  Thanks.
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:09
I think Shell Plc (NYSE: SHEL) is building a nice position in LNG exports from Canada's west coast with the ARC Energy acquisition. And ARC shareholders would get a continuing play as 75% of the deal is in stock.

But there are really multiple players here--Pembina, Altagas and TC Energy on the midstream side for example. Ovintiv in the EIA portfolio also has a big position. We're due a piece on this in EIA--look for one shortly.

Anyone who doesn't currently subscribe to EIA should call Sherry at 877-302-0749, anytime M-F, 9-5 ET.
susan p
6:28
I have to break for something at 6pm but wanted to thank you both for this exceptional offering you give us. Rest when you can...The hand-holding all year long has been appreciated.
AvatarElliott Gue
6:28
Thank you for the kind words and for joining us tonight!
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:33
Thank you Susan!
Frank
6:34
I have a large position in HASI and to my untrained eye the company looks to me to be like a BDC. If there is a crack in the private credit/equity market, would HASI be caught in the downdraft, more so than other renewable companies?
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:34
HA Sustainable has KKR as a financial partner in a venture with total authorized investment now of $5 bil. So if KKR went bust from its other loans, HA would have to find a new partner or else scale back to what it can afford on its own.

So far as the actual assets go, however, the value of loans and equity investments are tied to the individual projects and creditworthiness of the operator. And HA has extraordinary quality control as well as diversification.

HA is a BDC. The difference with the rest of the industry is it has a dominant position in a still high growth niche that's proven to be generally resistant to economic ups and downs. And that focus means they don't have to lend to weaker counterparties.

Q1 earnings and updated guidance are due May 7. And I expect another solid result.
AvatarElliott Gue
6:37
Here's a few from my e-mail queue: Elliott's thoughts on the impact of UAE's departure from OPEC--if he hasn't already addressed this development. 
I offered a more detailed outlook above. To summarize with a few added points, in the short term, there is no effect because the closure of the Strait means that UAE can only export about 1.8 million bbl/day via a pipeline that bypasses Hormuz. They produced 3.55 million bbl/day pre-conflict. Intermediate term: Also, not much impact.
Once the conflict is resolved it will take time to assess damage and restart wells. Eventually they could push up to approx. 4 million bbl/day (+450k) but that’s a 6+ months process most likely. Long Term: UAE is targeting 5 million bbl/day of production (this was the core of their longstanding dispute with OPEC and Saudi). I think there may be some delays to the 2027 time frame they put in place for getting up to that production level due to infrastructure damage.
However, regardless, the world lost over 1 billion barrels of production, so I suspect OPEC would be producing flat out anyway and it’s going to take more than an extra 1.45 m bbl/day from UAE by 2028 or so to shift the supply/demand balance. Generally, I don’t think it was a surprise that UAE left OPEC at all (the timing yes, but it was always a matter of when not if). And if UAE and Saudi are producing flat out that means there’s no spare capacity – this is usually bullish for oil prices.
susan p
6:44
Roger's last REIT issue's title "High Income Antidote to an Uninvestable S&P 500" was clever, as was the substack "The S&P 500 Is Really the S&P 7"...Public Storage's purchase of National Storage Affiliates seems to reflect a potential wave of REIT M&A -- e.g. Blue Owl recently bought healthcare net lease reit (Sila). S. Calif's Rexford Industrial Realty has been mentioned as a potential way for a bigger industrial reit to grow via acquisition. I don't see Rexford on your REIT sheet. Is this by design --i.e., not strong enough. Or indicative of the need to cut off the number of REITs covered. Like you, I think there are many good bargains amidst REIts for a long-enough time horizon. But, Rexford preferreds have an investment-grade rating and I have wondered about this REIT. Thanks for your thoughts if you are familiar with it.
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:44
I have to give credit for those headlines to my son Nate, who is helping me with Substack.

I agree with you on the acquisition/consolidation theme in REIT land. Self storage is a business I now have some experience with family owned partnerships. And the game has always been consolidation with the bigger players buying up established properties developed by smaller ones. I think CUBE is likely to be next major REIT to get a deal. But there are also a lot of smaller ones also likely to be snapped up.

Rexford is one I probably should cover. There are a lot of names in the REIT space. And I always appreciate suggestions for new coverage.
Alex M.
6:51
Hi Roger.  Do you have a preference/favorite among the major apartment REITs (AVB, MAA, CPT, ESS)?  Thanks.
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:51
I think MAA is right now the cheapest. And after their generally solid Q1 results, I'm more comfortable holding it as the cycle turns up for residential. But AVB is well off the highs and probably has less risk. Word on CPT recently was they were considering putting themselves up for sale. I'm rating most of them buys in REIT Rater. And again, if you're not a REIT Sheet or Dividends Roundtable (Substack) subscriber already, I invite you to give one of them a try.
Frank
6:52
ARC Resources was bought out by Shell at a nice premium. What does that portend for the rest of the Canadian upstreams like Tourmaline or Peyto?
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:52
I think it bodes very well for all of the western Canada energy patch. And Peyto and Tourmaline are certainly potential takeover candidates. The ARC deal shows the region has the attention of at least one super major. And where there's one, there are usually more within 2-3 years or less--bringing considerable investment with them.
AvatarElliott Gue
6:54
Question from E-mail: Are there any shippers and/or export-transportation-related names that either Roger or Elliott think worthy of consideration, given a likely changed role for the Straits of H once hostilities subside? Many are foreign based and have run up in price. But, a Bermuda-based name like DHT Holdings hasn't popped as much as most peers, yields over 5% and has paid a variable dividend for 19yrs. I don't know the company but use it as example of a name in the shipping transportation sector.
We wrote up DHT and FRO, in brief, last September I believe. Both are focused on the VLCC market – Very Large Crude Carriers (basically the largest class of tanker ship). Tanker rates are currently very high and volatile due to disruptions to oil trade flows due to the closure of the strait, so I do think there could be a knee-jerk sell-off once the Strait reopens.
However, in my view, the fundamentals actually improve once Hormuz reopens because VLCC ships tend to benefit from increase Middle Eastern production (these are the ships used to move oil from the ME). So, I suspect all your big OPEC producers are going to be shipping flat out – as much oil as possible as quickly as possible – in a desperate effort to make up for lost time and rebuild global inventories. So it’s a group we’re watching closely through with tanker shipping rates so elevated I’d be cautious near term.
I’d also keep an eye on refined product tanker names like STNG.
Due to the loss of global refining capacity – particularly in Europe/UK – countries there are very dependent on imports from places like the US and the Middle East. So, once Hormuz reopens I’d also expect to see a surge in demand for those tankers as well.
Bill G.
6:59
Hi Roger, Elliott:
Thank you for hosting these monthly Chats.
I'll totally conflicted about EIX? Anything to add?
Is RIO a buy or anything else in that area like SSCO?
Thank you
AvatarRoger Conrad
6:59
Hi Bill. I thought Edison had good numbers and guidance today. But the real issue for the stock as I've said is settling the potential liability for the Eaton fire. And the company once again said that it can't give a definitive estimate based on currently available information. I think this is a $90 stock when Eaton is in the rear view mirror. And I still believe the probability is they're not found negligent, even if their equipment--an out of service power line--is ultimately found to be the source of ignition. But until Eaton liability is known, the low to mid 70s are probably about as high as the stock is likely to go. And it's going to take some patience to get there.

My favorite major mining company is still BHP Group (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP). It's coming off decent operating results for calendar quarter Q1 2026 and looks headed for another big dividend increase this summer. I own it in the CUI Plus portfolio as well as Dividends Roundtable on Substack.
Guest
7:11
Hello Roger:  Can you provide us with an update of XIFR?  I read some disturbing comments last month from 1 of your colleagues about the ownership of the company as follows.  He opined that:
"XPLR is just the renamed NEP, and the fundamentals didn’t improve with the new ticker. Despite the common claim, it’s not 20% owned by NextEra—current filings show NEE closer to 2–3%, which tells you how far they’ve stepped back. At this point it trades more like a distressed renewable asset than a stable income investment.

NEE didn’t make a big, discrete sale — its stake in XPLR has simply been diluted over time as other institutional buyers accumulated units. The new holders are mostly hedge funds and special situations investors who specialize in distressed infrastructure assets. NEE’s remaining ~2% is basically a leftover po
AvatarRoger Conrad
7:11
Not sure where that information came from, or who this so-called "colleague" is. But neither characterization is accurate.

NextEra Energy is the general partner and has effective voting control of XPLR. There's no evidence they're "backing away." In fact, the CEO is a major shareholder and exercised options this year.

Specifically, XPLR Operating Company owns all the assets. Shareholders of XIFR own 48.8% of the Operating Company and NextEra itself owns the other 51.2%. NEE has the option to effectively swap its operating company units for XIFR shares.

Obviously, XPLR is not an income investment now, let alone a "stable one" as it hasn't paid a dividend for over a year. And it won't until at least 2028-29, depending on the success of paying off the CEPFs. I expect to see progress on that score when earnings are released and guidance updated May 7.
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