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April6 2020 Chat
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Ray Murphy
9:03
Hi gang, hope everyone is healthy and safe out there.... I was glad to post a new article on the site today... we can't have actual baseball right now, but writing about it/chatting about it still beats just about anything else out there right now. With that, on to the questions....
Rich K
9:07
Hi Ray!  Thanks for chatting.  In a 12-team H2H league, I have surplus pitching and need more hitting.  I have Kershaw, Greinke, Giolito, Gray, Lynn, Price, Weaver, Mikolas, and Josh James as SP.  Which one should I cut to pick up a hitter?  Mikolas because of his flexor strain and mediocre 2019, or Josh James because of his uncertain role?  Thanks.
Ray Murphy
9:07
More from Rich K: "Sorry, I forgot I also have Chris Archer.  Should I cut him, Josh James, or Mikolas to make room for a hitter?  Thanks again! "

Well, the late addendum makes a difference here. I'd cut Archer first. (Nice staff, btw!) If you do need another cut, I would cut Mikolas before James. Given your depth, seems like you have the opportunity to speculate on James' ceiling. And, back in February one of our concerns was an innings limit on James, and that may be less of an issue in a short-season situation.
Fred V
9:14
Hi Ray, love your work! How would you rank the following back-up closer options for probability of taking over? And what sleeper is not in this list? Buttrey, Harvey, Barnes, Montero, Rosenthal.  Thanks.
Ray Murphy
9:14
Backup closers are one of the more interesting areas to re-evaluate in the context of a short season. There was a debate about this in our subscriber forums recently: do we think closers-in-waiting are (as a class) less attractive in a short season, because there's less time for the wheel to spin and find them? Or do we think the extra importance of each individual game (and BS) will give managers itchy trigger fingers and have them flipping roles faster? I'm not sure there's a global answer to that question, but it's interesting to think about.

Anyway, from the list you gave, I think I'd lean toward Harvey right now. Bad team, to be sure, but he is the only guy on this list who *might* have still been on the road to an Opening Day closer gig. That might not have happened, but if the O's had a plan to let him work his way into the role during the season, maybe they just decide to give it to him out of the (new) gate. All of the other guys need a domino to fall before they get their crack.
Dr Dave
9:18
Auction keeper leagues.  What is your feeling about advancing contracts if there is less than 100 games played, or what would your cut off point be in terms of numbers of games played.  Tough to lose a Juan Soto with less than a full season played if he is in his last contract year.
Ray Murphy
9:18
Eh, I might be heartless, but I think I follow the lead of MLB on this. All of the players get their full service time credit even if there are no games played. Now, that's a little extreme for our purposes (and we don't have to negotiate with the MLBPA), but I think as long as there's a season, the example is instructive.

Also, I'm kind of dubious that we see a season of less than ~100 games. I think at that point, either they bag it altogether, or do something so crazy (like some 30-team WBC silliness) that it becomes inherently obvious to us fantasy players that we're going to see isn't a real season. But if they play ~100+ games, I think you should just call it a full season for contract purposes, and go out and try to win your league.
njmdsf3
9:25
Hi Ray - We play W+QS with all of the other categories being standard. What do you think of Pablo Lopez - SP (Marlins). How do you view him versus Michael Wacha. Another philosophical question.  If the season is only around half as long as a normal season, will the gap between SP and RP be as wide as usual? We play SV+H as one category.  It would seem as if very good closers/set up men who also get saves/holds with great ratios might be more valuable than innings eating SP even with the SP getting K's but the strikeout difference will not offset the ratios. Thoughts on that please too?
Ray Murphy
9:25
Lopez over Wacha and it's not close, if only because Lopez has legit upside if he finds his first-half 2019 groove again. Wacha doesn't have anything resembling that kind of ceiling.

The macro question is interesting. In a vacuum, yes, volume-type SP are going to lose some value in a shortened/compressed schedule. But before you go full Sweeney Plan with relievers, check the MLB rules... expanded rosters, esp. if available all year, could spread out the innings for relievers too. Closers/primary setup guys still have value, of course. But I think you might see more openers than ever before, and the bulk men/2-3 IP relievers who Yarbrough their way to a pile of Wins as second man in could be a really interesting class of pitcher if you can figure out who they are early in the season.
Rich
9:30
My league has changed its rules this year to incorporate more middle relievers this year, moving from 5 SP and 2 RP to 4 SP, 2 RP and 2 P. Saves plus holds replaced Saves, too. With the season shortened now, it seems like the smart thing is to get lots of quality arms like Gallegos last year. What high K relievers stand out to you that aren’t expected to be closers?
Ray Murphy
9:30
Not sure how many teams in your league, but in this day and age, there are enough high-K relievers to go around for everyone in most leagues. Some personal favorites: Lorenzen and Stephenson in CIN, M. Feliz in PIT, Chris Martin and Luke Jackson in ATL. But seriously, there are a couple on every team, and that's before the new guys who show up out of nowhere once the games start.
Kyle
9:35
Is there anything you’d so differently than usual if operating a roto keeper league during a shortened season? My league rebooted with categorical changes and had less keepers for just this year but we have yet to draft.
Ray Murphy
9:35
That's a new wrinkle to think about.... how do you change your league rules for just this year, when you're in Year 1 of a dynasty league? Seems like the default strategy for everyone will be that it's easier to punt this shortened year and play for the future, right? So maybe try to incentivize people to compete a little harder in year 1? Something about next year's draft structure, graduated number of keepers, something along those lines? Also wait and see what MLB does this year when (if?) they announce they're playing.... conditions involving the schedule, expanded rosters, etc., are going to have strategic implications for our games for this year.
Ray Murphy
9:40
OK, getting late here on the East Coast, so I'll wrap this one up. Thanks for all the questions... nice to see people staying engaged during these crazy times. Keep hoping we get back to baseball at some point. In the meantime, be well!
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