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Astros vs. Rays ALDS Game 4 Chat
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Ben Clemens
6:45
Hey guys, and welcome to our Game 4 chat. There's only one show in town today, quite a change from yesterday's circus.
If you'd like to read what we wrote about this series before it started, here's Brendan Gawlowski's preview:https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-preview-houston-astros-vs-tampa...
6:46
Or if you'd like to read what Rachael McDaniel had to say about a cathartic game three for the Rays:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/faith-hope-etcetera-in-st-petersburg/
ZiPS likes the Astros in this game by roughly a 58/42 margin:
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?seas...
6:47
And while ZiPS takes into account rest, here's Craig Edwards on the possible effects of short rest on Justin Verlander, particularly as it relates to his fastball:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/considering-justin-verlander-o...
6:49
Lastly, if for whatever reason you're not really into the Astros/Rays game, don't fret. We had all kinds of nonsense on the site today, from Devan writing about Jesus Luzardo:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jesus-luzardo-should-make-as-fans-excited-...
To me doing some math on intentional walks:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/to-walk-or-not-to-walk/
Or if you're looking for the good stuff, Jay Jaffe on starters turning back the clock:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/starting-pitching-is-making-a-postseason-c...
So kick back and enjoy. Meg and I will let the queue fill up a little bit, and we'll be here with you for the whole game.
Billy
6:59
There's been a lot of talk about how the ball's reduced drag has been conducive to more home runs.  Wouldn't it stand to reason that it would also allow pitchers to throw their fastball harder (and velo seems to continue trending upwards)?  Has anyone looked into this?
Ben Clemens
7:01
What the heck, let's kick it off with a physics question. I can't link you to any articles on this offhand, but think of it this way. Drag imparts a constant acceleration, which means that how far something travels due to a change in drag scales with the square of time in the air. The longer it's in the air, the more time it has to decelerate, and so balls hit a long way start decelerating immediately, which matters more the longer the ball is in the air.
In other words: lower drag does affect thrown pitches, but not that much, and wayyyyyy less than it affects fly balls.
7:02
Now, I'm not remotely a scientist, so real scientists, feel free to chime in.
But that's the way I understand it.
Billy
7:03
Makes sense, Ben.  Thanks for answering my question.
Ben Clemens
7:03
Yeah it's a really good question I think, b/c it's unintuitive.
Lunar verLander
7:03
Over/Under number of pitchers Rays use tonight?
Ben Clemens
7:04
I'll set it at 5.5. They've used 5, 6, 5 so far, and I'd hedge higher tonight.
7:05
But setting it at six seems wrong, seven isn't particularly likely
Michael
7:05
What do you think of starting Verlander on short rest? Obviously they want Cole for game 1 of ALCS but the history of short rest starters isn't good.
Ben Clemens
7:06
Going to link to Craig's article again, because I think it's a great angle on it:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/considering-justin-verlander-o...
7:07
I think I would not do it. That said, I like Jose Urquidy and I'd be risk-loving early in the playoffs. Try to let your fourth starter knock off the Rays, get some knock-on effects later in the playoffs. I think it's close though.
Meg Rowley
7:07
Grabbing some water, then away I'll go...
Ben Clemens
7:08
And I'd want to do more math to be certain one way or the other. For example, it helps that Game 2 of the ALCS isn't until Sunday, which means that Verlander would be on normal rest for that if they win tonight.
Dodger fan
7:09
Not related to this game, but please just set me on fire, playoff baseball is the worst.
Ben Clemens
7:09
It's also the best!
Joy wouldn't feel so good if it weren't for pain, etc.
Derek
7:10
Obvious no single game is a sure thing, but does having Cole on full rest ready to go for Game 5 make the risk of starting Verlander tonight any more palatable?
Ben Clemens
7:10
I'm actually not sure which would be the risk, going with Verlander or going with Urquidy.
Probably risk is the wrong way to think about it, though I literally just used that word now in describing it.
7:11
I think the way to think about it is that the Astros are making a tradeoff. Playing Verlander in this game, I think, increases their EV in this series, but it lowers it in future series.
Meg Rowley
7:11
Have fetched necessary supplies -- hi alL!
All, even.
Ben Clemens
7:12
Now, is that a good thing to do when there are two future series and you have to run well-ish to win the World Series? They have the PhD's, I'm just a simple blogger.
Matt
7:13
No disrespect to the game on right now, but the Strasburg-Buehler matchup for a game 5 in LA has me drooling!
Meg Rowley
7:13
and with Kershaw and Scherzer potentially in relief!
Ben Clemens
7:14
Tomorrow has three of the four pitchers I'm most excited to watch in these playoffs going. And the most exciting reliever, for better or worse (Carlos Martinez).
nat
7:15
Is the TB camera angle always this off-center or is this a Fox thing?
Meg Rowley
7:15
It's a Fox thing, and it's VERY annoying because Tampa's home broadcast cam is normally very well centered.
Matt
7:15
Playoff baseball is the greatest thing ever!!  Go screw NFL!
Ben Clemens
7:15
Tampa has the best camera in baseball.
So sad they have this one for the playoffs.
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