Return toCapitalist Times
August 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
This chat is available to members only. Please log in to participate.
Jack A.
3:07
Hi:

A respected analyst has recently recommended WMB as a top pick in the pipeline services sector. He highlights their future benefit as a provider in the AI buildout. What are your thoughts, especially in comparison to other pipeline service providers? And of all the pipeline service providers, which, at this time, at current prices, would be your top pick for placing fresh money in? Thank you
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:07
Hi Jack. Per my answer to a previous question, I think Williams has become an AI stock at this point for better or worse. It's yielding well less than 3% and shares have pretty much stalled out since March. It's also a very liquid C-Corp ($90 bil market cap), which means institutional money can trade the stock--it's a go-to when people want an oil and gas-related midstream.

This is not to say Williams isn't a great company. And I think it's taking advantage of a range of conservative investment opportunities to lock in contracts, mostly with regulated utilities. But I think the stock is vulnerable at a mid-70s price.

As for what I would buy in midstream, I think South Bow is the best value among C-Corps. And I really like Energy Transfer LP (NYSE: ET) at a price of 22 or less. The company raised 2026 guidance after a 31% boost in Q2 EBITDA--and it's all from long-term contracted asset expansion. There's a direct supply contract with a data center. But the real growth is coming from a theme
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:08
that has nothing to do with AI--US energy exports especially NGLs.
Lawman
3:17
What are your views on the future price of gold? Would you suggest buying coins/bullion, or  stock in the gold miners?
AvatarElliott Gue
3:17
In Free Market Speculator, I turned increasingly bullish on gold, silver and related stocks (my favorite has been WPM) back in 2023. Things got a little extended in my view starting towards the end of last year and, particularly for silver, in January. So, we recommended taking partial profits across the longer term services as well as trading services CT Trader and Elliott's Options. Except for EO where I recommended SLV calls, we retained at least some precious metals position in all other services. Now that we have seen a significant pullback, I am turning bullish again. I raised all our precious metals recommendations back to buy again in mid-August and I am currently working through a list of names as potential additions to the model portfolio in Free Market Speculator. That list is mainly junior and intermediate mining companies. These stocks carry higher risks than a straight metals ETF like GLD or SLV or a more senior name like WPM, but my plan is to recommend smaller stakes in a basket of names
AvatarElliott Gue
3:17
(much as we've done in biotech stocks this year as well). In my view it makes sense to own a combination of gold/silver and related stocks. My view is that right now there's probably more upside in the stocks because even if gold sort of trades sideways you can see some nice moves in that group.  Look at WPM as an example, that stock is almost back to its highs even with both gold and silver well off their early 2026 peaks.
John P.
3:19
Eliot and Roger, Thank you for running a great service and giving all of us a chance to have a secure financial future. Your advice is Top Notch. My question is about Viper energy. Now that they have revised their payout and removed the guaranteed 75% payout of earnings. What do you see as the possible yield in future quarters. I know that a high oil price helps their earnings a lot. Thank you
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:19
Hi John. In my view, Viper Energy's ever-generous policy of returning capital to shareholders just become even more attractive. The base dividend was increased 32% to a level management says is "fully protected down to approximately $30 per barrel WTI." It's also just 50% of cash available for distribution at $70 WTI--which means 50% is available for a combination of variable dividends, stock buybacks and "accretive M&A." Adding properties boosts cash flow further, while buybacks boost cash flow per share. Even if realized selling prices of oil and gas stay the same, this will lift cash flow available for variable dividends, buybacks and acquisitions.

Removing the quarterly commitment leaves the capital allocation decision to management's discretion. But I think it's reasonable to assume they'll continue what they did in Q2--which was to pay the base plus a variable dividend (29 cents per share), buy back stock (3 mil @44.61) and make an acquisition (Riverbend Oil & Gas LLC).
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:21
Bottom line--Viper will have more cash to disperse for variable cash dividends, buybacks and M&A the higher energy prices go. But the buybacks and M&A will keep underlying earnings power growing rapidly--and in line with the plans for parent Diamondback Energy (NSDQ: FANG). There's also no K-1 to file.
Lawman
3:22
Do you like any of the hyperscalers, or high priced AI trades, such as NVDA, MU, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, META, and AAPL, or are they too risky at today's prices?
AvatarElliott Gue
3:22
At this time I don't recommend any of the hyperscalers though I believe we could see an opportunity there in the next 3 to 6 months. We do have some exposure in Free Market Speculator/Creating Wealth to AI related tech names-- that list includes NetApp (NTAP), Arista Networks (ANET) and Flextronics (FLEX). All of those names are either rated hold or are above my buy-under price targets (making them effectively holds). I also recommended booking partial gains in FLEX a couple of months ago and NTAP earlier this month. So, I think a little extended still near-term but longer term there are opportunities.
Robert P
3:30
Hello Roger and Elliot, hope all is well. Your experience and advice is very much appreciated! My question is in regards to Canadian companies such as CCJ which may be trading on weakness due to the trade dispute with the Trump administration. Do you have any recommendations?
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:30
Hi Robert. Cameco may still be a little expensive. But I agree selling of Canadian energy stocks based on US/Canada trade friction is short sighted. You might recall a similar selloff last year when it became clear the Trump Administration viewed tariffs--basically import taxes on American businesses and consumers--as a primary economic weapon. And it was clear pretty quickly that oil and gas companies were not going to be a target.

I do think many Canadian energy stocks--like US energy stocks--are currently caught up in the escalation/de-escalation back and forth. And as a result, they could weaken near-term if there's an outbreak of peace. But the longer-term fallout from Operation Epic Fury is sources of energy outside the Middle East are likely to be increasingly attractive going forward. And that includes Canada's nascent export sector to Asia.

Canadian energy stocks in the Energy and Income Advisor portfolio currently include producer Ovintiv (NYSE: OVV) and midstreams Pembina Pipeline (NYSE: PBA),
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:32
South Bow (NYSE: SOBO) and TC Energy (NYSE: TRP). All but TC are trading below recommended buy prices--and it would be on a dip under 60. Whatever the reason for the selloff--tariffs or de-escalation hopes--these prices are a good opportunity for longer-term minded investors to pick up shares.
Lawman
3:35
Why has the price of NG languished at such low prices when the US and Europe rely soe heavily on this commodity, even moreso now with what has happened in the middle east? What will it take for US natgas prices to finally take off, and do you expect this to happen and, if so, when? Which types of companies stand to benefit most if the price of natgas goes up in the future?
AvatarElliott Gue
3:35
European and Asian gas prices are very high right now -- the equivalent of $20+ per MMBtu in US terms. TTF (Netherlands) is actually trading at a higher price today than it was at the March intraday peak. The problem is that the US and EU/Asian gas markets aren't well connected from a supply standpoint.

US LNG export capacity is growing fast as are what I like to call US stealth gas exports (nitrogen fertilizer, ethylene, methanol). However, current capacity is essentially maxed out and even using a modular LNG construction plan such as that used by Venture Global (VG) it takes 2 - 3 years to bring a new export terminal from final investment decision (FID) to first exports.  Accordingly, the US market is currently oversupplied with gas while Europe/Asia face a chronic/structural supply deficit. What will change it is that new LNG export terminals are ramping up, and that runway extends into the 2030s -- this is a steady pull on US gas demand. AT the same time, you have a number of other projects under
AvatarElliott Gue
3:35
development including EXE's methanol export facility, CF's nitrogen export facilities, behind the meter power projects for data centers in TX, PA, etc. Continued EU-deindustrialization, with heavy industry relocating to the Gulf Coast. These too will add new sources of demand and export relief for the US gas market. In my view, as we've written before, I think we see gas prices in the $4/MMBTU range, still well below the EU/Asian levels, but at levels that benefit producers like EXE and EQT.
Mack
3:39
What are your thoughts on MGY? It's been recommended as a 'value' stock by someone I trust, but it has gone nowhere for a long time. Thanks.
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:39
Hi Mack. Magnolia Oil & Gas isn't a company we currently track in EIA. But very quickly, things seem to be moving in the right direction--with the dividend increased from 15 cents per quarter at the beginning of the year to 18 cents currently.

The Wildfire Energy acquisition from a private capital consortium appears to be a positive, adding acreage near Gulf Coast export facilities for oil, gas and NGLs. And Q2 results look solid, though that's pretty much been the case for most oil and gas producers this year.

The primary reserve basins--Austin Chalk, Eagle Ford--are generally considered to need  gas prices north of $3 per million BTU, like the Haynesville. So this is not a company on par with EQT or Expand Energy--which we prefer. But it's one we might pick up at some point in coverage. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.
Sohel
3:44
Hello Elliot, With the recent moves by China to ban paper gold trading and all the net physical gold purchases by central banks, what do you expect physical gold to do over the near term (next 3-4 months) and the longer term 3+ years?
AvatarElliott Gue
3:44
I am generally bullish both gold and silver. I think there's a  good chance we see $5k+ gold by early next year, perhaps a retest of the all-time highs. Longer-term, I don't think we've seen the cycle highs -- my longer term target has been $8,000 and I outlined some of my rationale in this video https://freemarketspeculator.substack.com/p/why-gold-jumped?r=slp10&ut... (it's from April 2025). Right now, I am really diving into the mining space. While we've done well with names like WPM, I think there are some opportunities a bit further down the cap curve. I will probably have at least 1 or 2 new recommendations by early next week.
Lani
3:48
Hi Roger,  

I’m thinking of following your recommendation and buying some Pfizer stock. My concerns are their high PE, apparently high debt, and high payout ratio.  Your thoughts? Thanks!
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:48
Hi Lani. The value proposition with big pharma Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) is two-fold in my view. First, the company pays a generous dividend. And at the mid-point of 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance--$2.80 to $3 including a 10 cents per share one-time charge for the Innovent Biologics transaction--the dividend is covered 1.7X (payout ratio 59.3%). The company also raised the mid-point of revenue growth guidance for 2026, which implies a boost in earnings guidance later this year.

Second, Pfizer is I believe at the bottom of its product cycle, with the full impact of loss of patents now in earnings and the share price. And with a wide range of new treatments getting traction, I think we could see a trajectory for the stock price similar to what Abbvie achieved the past few years--as new treatments growth more than offset the loss of Humira patents.

I think Q2 results contained a number of signs this is starting to happen. As for the P/E, it's 8.1X at the mid-point of 2026 guidance--very cheap.
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:50
Pfizer is also rated A with stable outlook by both Fitch and S&P. Not that credit raters are perfect--but such a high rating does mean preferential access to lower cost debt financing, which is critical managing a balance sheet. It's just one stock in the portfolio. But I feel pretty good owning it at this point.
Alex M.
3:53
Gentlemen, I was hoping to get your thoughts on the covered call funds that focus on precious metals such as IGLD, IAUI, KGLD, etc.  Are these good long-term holds to gain exposure to gold while collecting income?  Thanks.
AvatarElliott Gue
3:53
Generally, I am not a fan of covered call ETFs based on assets I am very bullish on. When you sell a covered call, You are giving away upside in exchange for current income.  In a powerful rally the risk is that you get the underlying called away from you frequently, which limits your upside. When the underlying asset sells off, the premiums from sold calls does protect your downside a bit, but not all that much -- just look at how those funds all came in with precious metals following the early 2020 highs. The only covered call ETF I like here is TLTW. TLTW owns long-term US Treasuries via TLT and sells calls on TLT one month out. Each month, it then rolls. So, you're getting the carry in TLT (~5.2%) plus a premium kicker.
Susan P
3:57
Late summertime thanks to both of you & Sherry...I have a macro question that is asked in the context of managing a portfolio: Since the FED's establishment in 1913, the U.S. $ has lost roughly 96-97% of its purchasing power. What $1 bought in 1913 required $30–32 in 2025. Implementation of a fully FIAT approch in 1971 has only accelerated the erosion of purchasing power (a $1 from 1971 requires $10 to 13 dollars). Gold bugs will say they have the answer but for investors wanting to generate income and have easy liquidity, gold bouillon and far fewer equity choices diminish gold's appeal. From your experience over the years, do either of you have thoughts on energy vs utilities vs reits vs staples/pharmaceuticals/etc., as well as specific bond approaches, to counter this 113 year trend of declining purchasing power. Thank you.
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:57
Hi Susan. Great question. Yes, the dollar doesn't buy even what it did a decade ago, before the federal debt more than doubled. I do think owning a little Newmont or Barrick is a very good idea for income oriented portfolios, despite the fact they pay basically what you'd get from an S&P 500 ETF in dividends.

I do think a lot of people tend to discount dividend stocks' ability to keep pace with (and often beat) inflation--mainly because we keep hearing the false conventional wisdom that they're "bond alternatives" that rise and fall with interest rates. But a well-run utility, REIT, energy company, big pharma etc that can reliably grow its business will beat inflation over time--both with growth of principal and a rising income stream.

I think at this point that REITs are probably the great undiscovered dividend stock inflation plays. Utilities maybe come in second, since people seem to be doubting their growth projections--which I think are actually pretty conservative.
AvatarRoger Conrad
3:58
If we can get our favorite energy midstream and producer stocks below our recommended buy prices, they're probably the best way to ensure you'll keep up with inflation. Just keep in mind the escalation/de-escalation back and forth is still driving prices to a large extent.
Paul
4:01
What you thoughts about TLTW with with the changes happening to the etf.
AvatarElliott Gue
4:01
One problem/Risk with TLTW has been that the ETF always rolls its exposure on a  single trading day from one month to the next. Under the new system they will "stagger" the roll into four weekly tranches. Theoretically, this is an enhancement because it lowers the biggest risk facing TLTW in my view, which is a major short-term rally in TLT that results in giving away too much upside. MY strategy in Smart Bonds has been to recommend a mix of TLTW and TLT favoring the former when I am more neutral and the latter when I see elevated risk of a sharp bond rally. This shift should help reduce that risk.
Alex M.
4:09
Hi Elliott.  What are your thoughts on ORCL at this price?  Has it gotten too risky given the recent balance sheet stretching?  Thanks.
AvatarElliott Gue
4:09
We added ORCL to the Free Market Speculator portfolio back in October 2023. At one point it was the largest single weight in the portfolio. The stock saw a huge run-up into the highs about a year ago and we ended up selling off most of it/booking gains on the way up. Now it's a small position in the model portfolio (rated hold) and still up 38% or so since recommendation. (I think the largest profit we took in ORCL was close to 200% if memory serves). At this point I have no plans to move it back to buy or increased the recommended position size. My sense is that ultimately some of the concerns will prove overblown, but I am in no hurry.
Don C.
4:12
Elliott/Roger--Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley recently abandoned the time honored split of 60% stocks and 40% fixed income for most portfolios. He is now recommending 60% stocks, 20% fixed income and 20% gold.  Do you both see this as signal that mainline Wall Street is embracing real assets such as oil, copper, gold and other metals? Thanks for all that you do for subscribers.
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:12
Hi Don. We've seen a great deal of upside in gold and other resources the past few years--which conventional Wall Street have largely missed out on. NYSE-traded ADRs of the world's leading mining company BHP Group (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP), for example, are up better than 60% year to date. Yet, the 17 research houses covering the stock break down as 4 buys, 11 holds and 2 sells--with an average price target less than half BHP's current price. They're a little more bullish on  leading copper miner Freeport (NYSE: FCX) after a 55% gain. Yet the average 12-month target price is about -10% below FCX' current level.

Why? Mainly because Wall Street has been largely fixated on the biggest Tech stocks to the exclusion of most everything else, at least up until recently. And now their clients are saying why don't I own more XYZ.

With all due respect to Morgan Stanley, I think declaring the end of 60-40 is a throwaway line. And 60-20-20 after gold has rallied to $4600 prompts the question--where were you guys in '23?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:15
It's possible that we'll see some mainstream buying of gold stocks as a response. But it's also true that when the last bears start to throw in the towel, those with big profits should start doing a little harvesting. I see multiple upside catalysts for gold and stocks like Newmont from here. So I'm not ready to cash out completely.
Bill
4:21
Just curious about your thoughts on Crown Castle. The earning seemed very positive. Do you think their tower network will be utilized by data centers?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:21
Hi Bill. Crown Castle's Q2 results had plenty of hints that the REIT's fortunes have bottomed. And with 2026 guidance raised, debt reduced and the company working through the negative impact on revenue from Sprint and DISH contract cancellations, I no longer consider the reduced dividend at elevated risk.

That said, I definitely prefer American Tower (NYSE: AMT) in the communications infrastructure group. They've already turned the corner on revenue growth at the wireless tower operations. And the CoreSite data center business is thriving.

One possibility is CCI merges with AMT--while there's a favorable federal regulatory environment for M&A. And if CCI can successfully sue Echostar for $3.5 bil in broken contacts, the cash windfall will likely give a real boost to the stock. But AMT yielding a growing 4.1% is the better buy for conservative investors now.
shelll
4:26
Many past Septembers have seen market collapses.What is your best guess for the upcoming September and any advice. Is it time for some profit taking?
AvatarElliott Gue
4:26
September has the worst average annual return of any month of the year; last I looked at the data, it's the only month of the year where price returns have been positive les than 50% of the time. Returns are also historically a bit worse than average during mid-term election years. So, I think there are some valid concerns but I do think there's a valid risk of overplaying seasonality -- markets don't turn on a calendar so I regard seasonality as more of a vague tendency than a primary strategy input. For broader market publications, like Free Market Speculator, we've used recent strength to book some partial gains and, as I noted earlier in the chat, I am contemplating some additional moves by early next week. My inclination is to probably sell more -- raise more cash -- than I recommend deploying. Generally speaking, based on the studies I have done, the Sept. weakness seasonality isn't significant for commodities or related stocks except for years where something really "breaks" like 2008.
Connecting…