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August 2026 Capitalist Times Live Chat
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Sohel
4:31
Hi Roger, Thanks for holding, find them incredibly useful. Re. HASI they switched to C Corp with the promise that most of their dividends would be ROC or non-dividends do you know if they are sticking to that?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:31
Thanks Sohel. I believe so. HA Sustainable is a BDC--business development company. It's assets are debt and equity investments rather than actual operations. So cash flows are tax advantaged. They distribute a 1099 at tax time--so they're not and MLP. But the nature of the business has not changed since they dropped the REIT structure and became a C-Corp.
Lawman
4:36
What do you think would happen to the prices of MLP stocks if the straight of Hormuz were to open?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:36
Hi Lawman. I think pretty much all energy stocks are going to move with the escalation/de-escalation back and forth. And based on the reactions we've seen so far to what ultimately amounted to rumor and speculation, I think a return to pre-Operation Epic Fury conditions would likely trigger selling. And that would include midstream energy MLPs--though they aren't nearly as vulnerable as C-Corps, and their underlying businesses would continue to grow from contracted asset expansion.
Lawman
4:40
Many MLP's are near to, or exceed, your high purcase limit. Do you intend to raise your limit, or do you think these stocks will drop below your high limits?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:40
I think the escalation/de-escalation action in the market now is a good reason to stick with the buy limits we currently have. Keep in mind that we did raise them earlier this summer--based on stepped up contracting activity from energy exports and utility electricity generation. Those are their primary pillars for growth. Shale discipline is still stronger than ever. So even if oil and gas prices collapse, midstream companies and producers would be prepared because they've used cash windfalls to pay off debt, buy back stock and invest in efficiency.

But this is not a time to chase. And as I've pointed out earlier in the chat, there are still midstream companies like ET and SOBO that are still selling for less than our buy limit prices.
Hans
4:41
Elliott,  As you mentioned in the latest EIA  "We'll see a meaningful pullback" should we not take some profit to get some more cash for later investments when share prices have dropped after the Iran conflict.  Thanks
AvatarElliott Gue
4:41
That comment was specifically with reference to the idea that the market for energy stocks has tended to lean out too far over its skis on "escalation" narratives this year, leaving it vulnerable to pullbacks on de-escalation days. Generally I think the risk today is much, much lower today than it was in March-April. Back then WTI was all bulled up -- huge speculative long position in oil and talk about $250/bbl. As we said, markets tend to overreact to geopolitical news. Oil prices (WTI) pulled back about 40% from closing high to closing low Mar-July. Energy stocks only down 15% - 18%, less than half. That's because energy stocks weren't pricing in $113/bbl, even at the highs they were pricing in more like $70/bbl long term. Now, even with the escalation headlines, and a rally in oil off the lows, futures speculators have a neutral position (less than half the upside exposure to WTI vs. late March). And energy stocks have started to rally independent of crude, even on days when oil is flat to down. I don't
AvatarElliott Gue
4:41
doubt you'd see some selling if the US and Iran  were to suddenly announce an unconditional reopening of Hormuz. However, I think a binary headline like that is a relatively low risk event --  and the stocks are already looking through it.  Markets are beginning to pick up on the fact that even with the Strait open, the supply demand balance for oil is a lot tighter than it was a year ago and we're not likely to see sustained sub $70/bbl any time soon. So, we'll continue tor recommend some selective profit-taking from time to time but I'm not looking for some sort of a massive, imminent pullback in oil or energy stocks.
das555
4:41
How do you feel about adding to ET at current prices - better to wait for a pullback?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:41
I like Energy Transfer at a price of 22 or less--below that level it's a buy for those without a full position.
Sohel
4:44
Hi Elliot, What is your outlook for EXE in the near term (rest of the year) and longer term next 3-5 years? How much can US export to Europe/Asia to capitalize on the massive price differential for gas? Who are the biggest beneficiaries of this likely to be in terms of stock price performance?
AvatarElliott Gue
4:44
In my view EXE has bottomed for this year. gas prices are already pricing in a ton of bad news for next winter and EXE has the capacity to weather 12 months of relatively low gas prices $3/MMBtu range while still generating ample cash flow. Longer term, on a $4.00/MMBtu NYMEX deck, may target remains $150.
Lawman
4:46
Do you favor health insurance companies in this market, and what are your thoughts on Cigna?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:46
I've held CVS Health (NYSE: CVS) to good effect the past couple years. I've also been recommending a handful of senior living REITs in REIT Sheet that have done well for us. But generally speaking, I think we want to be careful with health care now. Affordability is a huge issue and it looks like the next US Congress is going to want to squeeze out costs--very likely with something resembling Medicare for all proposed.

I think CVS is well positioned for this kind of change--given they combine insurance with pharmacy and health care. The stock is a little expensive now but would be a buy on a pullback. I think Cigna carries a great deal of political risk.
Lawman
4:48
Do you like big pharma? Thoughts on Bristol Myers and GSK?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:48
I like Pfizer in the group. The yield is high and looks very well covered by stable earnings and a strong balance sheet. And it appears to be where Abbvie was in its product cycle a few years ago. Follow that trajectory and we could be looking at 3X gains in the next few years.
Lawman
4:54
Thoughts on TTE, how would you rate TTE against other big oil companies, such as Chevron, Exxon, and Shell?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:54
My main thought is TotalEnergies is a little expensive now. But it would be a buy again on a pullback. I like the fact that its management--unlike Shell and BP--has basically stuck to the same investment plan it laid out earlier in the decade. That's dividing investment between oil and gas production--where it's goal is 3-4% annual output growth--and electricity, where it plans to have 100 gigawatts of production capacity by 2030. The electricity arm is already providing a rising stream of steady cash flow. And it's helped the company stay in the good graces of EU regulators. I also like the fact it pays dividends in Euros, which should get a lift from a weaker US dollar.

Chevron and ExxonMobil have a the best production and reserve profile of global super majors. They're also a bit pricey now. But if you already own any of these three stocks, they're long-term keepers.
Richard
4:58
Is VIST energy reasonable investment in this stage of shale developement?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:58
Hi Richard. It's not one we currently track. I see Peter Thiel has bought shares, which has some people excited.
Lawman
4:59
AWR is trading above your highest buy range. Is it overvalued, or are you going to raise your high buy price?
AvatarRoger Conrad
4:59
No. The Q2 earnings were solid. And the stock has come back since the California rate agreement. But history is not kind to people who chase water utility stocks. And Essential Utilities/American Water Works are a solid value ahead of their merger.
Lawman
5:01
Is BP a but at this price?
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:01
We like the new CEO. And the direction of the company appears to be on the right track. Management has made a lot of mistakes in recent years and it's well behind CVX, XOM, TTE etc. But we are considering it.
Michael P
5:02
Roger, I would like to thank you for the PAGP recommendation. Among many doubters, you displayed conviction on the opportunity and the under $26.50 buy price. It has been an interesting and very lucrative ride which my wife and I have enjoyed. Thanks for all you do.
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:02
Thank you Michael. Glad it worked out. I think Plains has been moving in the right direction for a while and continues to do so. Great Q2 results.
Hans
5:04
Roger,  What is all the talk about BE, is that something to look at.  Thanks
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:04
Hi Hans. There's been a lot of excitement about Bloom Energy and fuel cell deployment in data centers. Unlike FCEL, this is a company with real earnings. But it is very expensive at 20X plus sales--it also looks like an AI hype stock, which means it could just as easily trade at $100 as $300.
Karl
5:09
Given the announcement that the President just issued issued an executive order to declare a national emergency to secure the United States bulk power system including measures to strengthen grid resilience and protect critical infrastructure, it seems to me that we should be able to profit from this.  What are you thoughts on the best companies to invest in specifically related to strengthening the grid.
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:09
Hi Karl. Unlike the EU, we don't have a national energy company in the US. What the government can do is reduce regulation at the federal level, offer tax incentives, make loans and give grants. And the Trump Administration has already been doing this, though it has erected new barriers to development of renewable energy that arguably is taking electricity supply off the market. It's also ordered a number of aging coal power plants not be closed or converted to natural gas--citing national security, though it's cost operators several billion dollars already according to industry.

I guess what I'm saying is let's wait and see what specific measures are taken and how they impact specific companies. My guess would be this benefits our midstream energy companies and electric utilities.
Lawman
5:12
Current thoughts on Cal Water CWT. How would it fare in the unlikely event the republican candidate for governor were to prevail?
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:12
California utilities have typically done well under Republicans--Governor Schwarzeneggar especially. I wouldn't hold my breath for that outcome this time around. And history shows that anticipating outcomes and policies frequently leads to disappointment. But it could be a positive. California Water like American Water is, however, an expensive stock currently.
Guest
5:13
Hello Elliot. What do you make of 40T and growing debt level, federal reserve buying back bonds to lower interest rate, possibility of hyper inflation and consequences of the above for future of dollar and  USA as super power   Thank you
AvatarElliott Gue
5:13
I personally don't like to see elevated federal government spending and borrowing.    My  job as a market analyst/economist though isn't to tell you what I want to see or believe in politically, it's to tell you what I think is likely to happen, what it means for markets and how you can profit and protect your downside. With those caveats I think the deterioration in the US fiscal position is the most well-understood and talked about risk in the world. It may be a trainwreck, but it's the slowest moving trainwreck in history. This summer we saw leveraged funds build their largest-ever short position in 30-Year Treasuries and 30-Year Ultras -- on a cumulative basis they stood to make close to  $300 million for every 0.01% rise in 30-Year yields. And that's just the money we can see in the CFTC reports. Everyone is betting the same way, on the same long bond yield spike.

Typically, market catastrophes happen when most participants are looking in the opposite direction, not when the consensus is so uniform.
AvatarElliott Gue
5:13
In my view it's more likely that we'll see the long bond bears get hit amid a significant near-term rally in the long bond (lower yields). I believe that view is further supported by two additional factors. 1. The long bond yield has been unable to sustain a break above the 2023 highs while 10-year Treasuries are under 4.7%, a far cry from 5% in late 2023. 2. Treasury buybacks are nothing new -- the Treasury restarted those in May 2024. Yes, Bessent announced an expansion in size and it caught some additional attention when Stanley Druckenmiller published an OpEd in WSJ (I guess he's one of the shorts). But, I'd argue that other moves we've seen in recent years -- such as the Yellen pivot to T-Bills -- were more worrying and received far less attention in the media.
Meanwhile, if the risk were a massive surge in inflation, then TIPS would be performing better.
Longer term, three more (relatively) quick points.
These macro catastrophe narratives make the rounds every few years and they catch a lot of attention and, to be frank, sell a lot of advisory services/newsletters. However, they are almost always exaggerated.
Second, the biggest positive the US has going is that there’s no credible alternative. Europe is a mess economically, and suffers from a severe, ongoing energy crisis. China’s currency market isn’t open and the country suffers from plenty of its own bubbles – real estate, now solar. Also, China’s energy position isn’t as solid as the US.
In my view the dollar has room to weaken – this is long-term trend we’ve been positioned for in several services, but I don’t think the dollar collapse on hyperinflation narrative is credible, at least not yet.
Lawman
5:13
Is CPK a buy at $133?
AvatarRoger Conrad
5:13
My highest recommended entry point is 120--and I'm sticking to that. Great company but an expensive stock.
Lawman
5:15
With data centers needing so much energy, which industries and companies are most likely to benefit?
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