August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 2/9/16
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njs
12:40
there's been some debate about aj pollock's projections being super low (he's projected for 4 WAR but has produced ~6.6 WAR over his entire time in the bigs... which is about 1500 PAs). thoughts? (ditto goldschmidt: he hit 7.5 WAR last year and is projected for something like 6 this year).
august fagerstrom
12:41
yep, I'd take the over on both of those, and it's already one of the best projected one-two batter combo's in baseball, even with the seemingly low projections. Steamer totally isn't buying the last ~800 PA from Pollock
Ernie Camacho
12:42
% probability that one of Uribe or Freese is the Tribe's opening day third baseman?
august fagerstrom
12:42
40%
GG
12:42
Why do people think the Red Sox are going to be good? Is it really that outlandish that I don't think Price and Kimbrel are enough? I see Boston last in the division again.
august fagerstrom
12:43
Well obviously Price and Kimbrel are massive upgrades, and that bullpen is stacked with Smith, too, but I wrote about this earlier: I think one of the big things people forget about is that regression goes both ways. Hanley and Panda were worth like -5 WAR last year. Even if they're just average players, you're talking like a 7-9 win swing
Nobody should actually expect those two to be the two worst players in all of baseball again
Cory S.
12:44
Swihart not a major leaguer as is? Had a .312 wOBA and a .712 OPS as a rookie who was surprisingly pushed into a role. League average is .296 wOBA and .678 OPS. He was also only 23.
august fagerstrom
12:44
Right but if he needs to improve with the glove to stick at catcher, because if he's not a catcher, the bat doesn't play anywhere else
Danny
12:45
No need to go into too much detail or even share if you don't want to, but what happened with the Cleveland gig?
august fagerstrom
12:45
with MLB? That was just an internship
Rick
12:45
Cespedes, Meyers, Castro, Heyward, Sano: Which of these position changes is most likely to go the way of Hanley Ramirez?
august fagerstrom
12:45
Sano, easily
Duke
12:46
Don't understand the love for the LAD. Aside from Gonzalez, Kershaw and Jansen, they have a great degree of uncertainty at every position. Why does Fangraphs rate them so highly?
august fagerstrom
12:46
Well we don't choose what the projections say, but it's got a lot to do with fantastic depth and a top-3 player in baseball
I guess we have differing views of "uncertainty" too with respect to guys like Seager and Puig
12:47
I'll take uncertainty when the uncertainty is "uncertain whether he'll just be a 3-win player or one of the very best in baseball at his position"
Cecil Fielder
12:47
Speaking of cigarettes, that report about yopenis cespenis smoking too much between innings cracked me up
august fagerstrom
12:47
One of my favorite stories in recent memories
Still kinda cant believe it
Geebs
12:48
With what's left on the FA market, what if anything can the O's do to be serious contenders in the east?
august fagerstrom
12:48
It's too late to be a "serious" contender I think. The good thing about the AL is, there's not enough separation for anyone to be out of it. O's have a chance, I just see them as more of a longshot than most due to that rotation right now
Bork
12:48
How true is the quickly made Cleveland tourism video?
august fagerstrom
12:49
Obviously embellished and they highlight the poor spots, but all of that stuff is real. There are very nice parts of Cleveland, too, though. Downtown is nice and has made big strides in recent years
Mike
12:49
Yulieski Gourriel: which team scoops him up?
august fagerstrom
12:49
auto-response: Dodgers
Guest
12:49
Any guess what tlop stands for the new kanye album?
august fagerstrom
12:50
no idea but god damn I can't wait any longer
Bubba Starling
12:50
Do the Royals really go into the season with a Dyson/Orlando platoon in RF? Why not give Eibner a look? He's gotten better and better, excelled in AAA last year, and put on a Ruthian spring training with the big league team before that.
august fagerstrom
12:50
Dyson/Orlando has the chance to be a sneaky valuable platoon
I'd love that if I were a Royals fan
Dyson's had roughly 2 full seasons worth of PA and has 10 career WAR!
12:51
Obviously propped up some by defensive metrics and only facing righties, but it's not a horribly small sample of defense and he's expected to continue only facing righties!
Gordon-Cain-Dyson/Orlando everyday platoon is a huge upgrade from Gordon-Cain-Rios with Dyson and Orlando on the bench
Russel
12:52
Do you think TJ House ever gets confused for Johnny Manziel?
august fagerstrom
12:52
i do not
Bad Hermit
12:52
I saw you on TV. Has your cease and desist order arrived from Rust Cohle yet? Or is the lack of a mustache a material difference?
august fagerstrom
12:52
lemme google that name real quick...
12:53
I am way better kempt than that dude
better kempt? more kempt?
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