August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat -- 9/27/16
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august fagerstrom
12:23
That's a strong top three. Might swap Bochy for Francona.
Raindog
12:24
As an O's fan, about once a week I get a panic about Machado not being extended. He's getting $5M now in 1st arb year. Think that $10, $15 for remaining two, then 8 yrs at $30 for a total 10/$265 gets it done?
august fagerstrom
12:25
I think you have every right to be panicked about his not being extended
12:26
A player of his caliber on a franchise like the Orioles makes that seem like a longshot, IMO, even though both parties have expressed interest
EvanC
12:26
Paul Goldschmidt stole his 29th base last night. Any idea the last time a 1B stole 30?
august fagerstrom
12:26
to the Play Index!
12:29
Since the expansion era began in 1961, there are just nine instances of a player who played more than half their games at first base stealing at least 30 bases, accomplished by eight different players, most recently Jeff Bagwell, in 1999, when he stole exactly 30. Bagwell is also the only first baseman to do it twice, as he stole 31 in 1997
12:30
Rod Carew has the first baseman steals record, with 49 in 1976. The last time a first baseman cracked 40 steals was Gregg Jefferies (46) in 1993. Others: Gerald Perry (42, 1987), Lee Mazzilli (41, 1980)
12:31
Other 30-bag stealers were Dan Driessen, Joe Carter, and Cesar Cedeno
So, yeah, it's been 18 years! Pretty impressive. Might even be post-worthy.
Particularly given decline of steals league-wide since those guys played.
CamdenWarehouse
12:31
Sam and Ben want Fernandez on a HOF ballot. What is your take?
august fagerstrom
12:32
I'm game. No harm in putting him on there and letting the voters decide, in my opinion.
Al
12:32
http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/22/try-try-try-to-understand-dan-warthen-is-a-magic-man-yeah-well-make-heart-jokes/

no need to post. would love to see a similar article from fangraphs (or you, personally) about this
august fagerstrom
12:32
Will read after the chat.
ShakeYourTushieHasegawa
12:33
Could you please give me your best guess as to what Ivan nova receives in free agency? He's been great since coming over to PIT, but his track record is..spotty. Also, his average opponent thus far has had a 92 wRC+ (that's Jordy Mercer). And while Nova's made some sustainable adjustments, mainly ditching the slider and pounding the zone, he's benefited from a 2.91 ERA against CIN(3x), MIL (2x), and PHI, while running a 4.47 ERA against LAD, SFG, HOU, and WSH. Maybe...12m aav? Or does he get more in a weak market?
august fagerstrom
12:34
I think you obviously start with Happ. Nova is three years younger with higher previous highs (Nova's 2011 and 2013 were better than anything on Happ's resume) but also he's not been nearly as dominant as Happ was with Pittsburgh last year. Happ being such a success for Toronto may also play in Nov's favor. Maybe an extra year but at slightly lesser money? 4/45 or so?
I'm also admittedly *terrible* at contract predictions, so you'd be better off asking Cameron.
Bad Hermit
12:36
Nice band choice but, considering your condition, I feel that you should have chosen Hospice as the album.
august fagerstrom
12:36
I won't lie, Hospice was how this started. Ha.
Much prefer Burst Apart (and Undersea) to Hospice, though
tommylasagna
12:37
True/False: The World Series determines the best team in baseball in a given year.
august fagerstrom
12:37
False
Raindog
12:38
David Ortiz has the highest wOBA in baseball. Ted Williams managed that trick in his final season. I'm willing to bet no one else has. This is pretty ridiculous, isn't it?
august fagerstrom
12:38
I'm not certain, but the answer may be in here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/best-final-seasons-part-one/
spartacus
12:38
For the younger readers, I was in college during 9/11... I didn't see the point in going to class while there were people at Ground Zero still searching... I felt like I should have been doing something more important. The baseball games were canceled for several days and when they resumed, obviously the joy wasn't there. It took a few weeks. I went skydiving that October... trusting a plane was the first big step in feeling safe again... JF's death is different, but shocking. It will take time. Don't rush it. Feel every emotion.
M&M
12:39
Thanks for answering. You're a really fantastic person, and you make me feel better. I'm sitting at my desk at work trying not to cry, but I mean that in a (mostly) good way. Thanks again.
august fagerstrom
12:39
Thank you.
RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY
12:39
What reasons do you have that the Cubs will not win the series? Not in any specific order.
august fagerstrom
12:39
1. There are a lot of good teams.
2. Baseball is weird.
fin
Amy
12:39
Which is more telling about each of these players futures in baseball: Aaron Judges struggles, especially with Ks, or Gary Sanchez's crazy hot start (though cooling off lately)
august fagerstrom
12:40
Sanchez, I think. A player proving he can excel to that level over a (somewhat) extended period of time says a lot more than a guy struggling in his first attempt at major league pitching. Judge still has tons of time to adjust and adapt. Sanchez has already proven something.
You Better You Better You Betts
12:41
Who are five 25-under players who have the best HOF chances? Trout, Harper, Betts, Syndergaard, and Correa might be my personal choices
august fagerstrom
12:41
There definitely wouldn't be a pitcher
Trout, Harper obviously. Next three I think would be Bryant, Machado, and... Correa, with Corey Seager a close sixth. I can already see Betts being underrated by Hall of Fame voters with 75 career WAR now.
12:42
Though hopefully by the time of his induction we're past the underrating of amazing all-around players
Also maybe he sheds that narrative by hitting 30 homers every year.
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