JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/10/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/10/22

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Ben Clemens

2:02

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. This one might be somewhat brief today (1hr or so) as I build up my chat stamina, slash because I have some writing to get to

But let's talk baseball!

Guest

2:02

What do you think is more predictive for a 23-year-old? 18 MLB PAs or 388 AAA PAs? And roughly at what quantities do you think they are approx. equally predictive?

Ben Clemens

2:02

The AAA line by a lot

2:04

I thikn I'd probably weight them equal when the ML line is, eh, 80% of the AAA line?

I haven't looked into this specifically but AAA stats are really useful

Appa Yip Yip

2:04

Did you ever play Base Wars for the NES with the baseball robots that fight?

Ben Clemens

2:04

I never had a Nintendo actually

I got a PS2 in high school, my first console

Ben

2:05

If a player was a terrible hitter but hit a TON of foul balls (say .111/.211/.111 slash line, but averaged 20 pitches seen per plate appearance), would they be worth rostering and, if so, how would you best utilize them?

Ben Clemens

2:06

This question comes up in various forms from time to time

I think they'd maybe be worth rostering if they could also fill some other holes. Say fourth outfielder or something

2:07

You can't start this guy every day, that's a really big offensive hole

But say you're facing deGrom or something? Or say your opponent brings in a tough reliever and you arne't interested in seeing them for multiple innings

Guest

2:08

do you think baseball clubhouses are MORE professional than the average fan would expect (eg, it's a workplace, and we only hear about the worst behavior because it's unusual) or it's LESS professional (eg, Eno's experience with Moustakas and Hosmer are regular occurences and it's miserable for regular people)

Ben Clemens

2:08

I think more professional ,but it really depends on what the average fan expects

2:09

That Hosmer story sticks out b/c there aren't a lot of others like it, and I don't think that's due to some baseball omerta

Doug

2:09

Do you think if the lockout goes to the point where there’s an abbreviated spring, might we see fewer trades than anticipated? Feel like those take a while and teams might not want the chaos during spring training

Ben Clemens

2:09

For sure

I don't anticipate a ton of offseason trades generally, but I think that teams will be behind on everything if we have an abbreviated spring

Joe

2:10

Care do make a prediction on what date there is an agreement between the owners and players?

Ben Clemens

2:10

Uh, sure. O/U Feb 8

171

2:10

Could a team survive with an entire pitching staff of guys who all pitch 3-4 innings every 3-4 days?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I wish I had a good way to answer this question, because I'm also very curious about it

I'll be honest with you: my guess would just be that, a guess

2:11

Are there pitchers who can do this? yes

Could you make a whole staff out of them and also manage the innings correctly for games when guys just don't have it?

That part seems really hard!

segiddins

2:11

For some reason, I just had a flashback to watching Rick Ankiel outfield assist videos on vacation. Is there anything else that's so aesthetically pleasing, disproportionate to the on-field value?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Steals. Back-picks. Second basemen who make double play turns with really stable platforms to where it looks like the ball is just looping through a jai alai thing

2:13

Defense and baserunning are both really pretty, and both relatively low-value (compared to pitching and hitting)

Inaccessible Rail

2:13

How likely do you think it is that Cano finishes the season on the Mets roster?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Assuming a DH gets instituted, I'd say 75%

I'm higher on Cano than our projection systems are

2:15

And I also think that the team would benefit from a guy who is likely to hit fairly well, as opposed to a ton of question marks

But he's 39

2:16

It'd hardly be a surprise if he just didn't have it

Reds question

2:16

Were you as shocked as I to learn that Reds were in on Heaney?

Ben Clemens

2:17

Not really, to be honest. Seems like the kind of guy the Reds might go for thinking there's untapped potential there. Maybe it's not a good fit for their competitive window, but I think of them as a very 'let's find ways to help pitchers help themselves' kind of team, and Heaney is a prime candidate for that treatment

And if they're planning on trading somebody, they have a LOT of innings to fill

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