JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/10/22

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Max

2:17

Which starter will throw the most innings for the Mets this year??

Ben Clemens

2:18

The safe bet is Scherzer

I'm gonna say Tylor Megill, because chaos is fun

Inaccessible Rail

2:19

If the Padres finish under .500 again, Preller is out of a job, right? What kind of job could he get next?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Yeah, at this point he has to be. I assume he could easily get a job as a scouting director or the like, but presumably he'd keep angling for a GM job, or maybe one of those Dodgers-style AGM type roles where it's a stepping stone back to GM

Neb

2:21

Can we ever get a manager without any baseball experience

Ben Clemens

2:21

How far off from that is Mike Shildt?

He played briefly at a medium college, not sure that counts as 'no baseball experience' but it's certainly close to it

No professional experience, at least

John

2:21

What are the chances MLB tries to start establishing divisions in Europe, Asia and Latin America? It seems to me that putting teams in Tokyo, London, Mexico City is far more valuable than maintaining largely dead franchises (from a revenue standpoint) in Pittsburgh, tampa bay, Milwaukee, KC, Cincinnati etx

Ben Clemens

2:22

I don't know what the actual odds are, but I don't think it would make all that much sense

The travel part matters a lot in baseball

I don't think anyone would be served if they started, say, an Asia circuit with 10 teams that played in the MLB playoffs

2:23

no one would ever get to watch those players live

It's not like they'd be taking frequent road trips to Houston and Milwaukee or whatever

2:24

If they wanted to collaborate on say, an Asia league that then plays the MLB champion in an extra postseason series

That would be of more interest to me

EcoResto

2:24

What team do you think was most negatively affected by the lockout?

Ben Clemens

2:24

I'm not really sure how to think about this

2:25

I guess a team that was planning on making a ton of changes this offseason but didn't sign anyone yet

So maybe the Yankees?

They need to do several things, and they'd surely like to know what to do about Correa, but they just won't get to for a while

2:26

And if they miss on Correa, their contingency plans will be happening RIGHT before the season

Guest

2:26

Thoughts on Nats prospect Yoander Rivero?

Ben Clemens

2:26

I'm the wrong person to ask on this one. Eric might have some dirt on him; to me he looks like a guy who hit well in low-level ball last year

Fernando Tatis-Buck Jr.

2:27

who do mets sign post-lockout?

Ben Clemens

2:29

How about Collin McHugh?

Baseball Fan

2:31

I was curious about what you said in your sinker article today. You said vertical movement wasn't that important to VAA, but in the regression equation Owen McGrattan used for his article pfx_z has a pretty large coefficient, bigger than any other component.

His equation was VAA ~ -10.935970 + (release_pos_z * -1.065859)+ (release_extension * -0.030599) + (plate_z * 1.056003) + (pfx_z * 1.184797 )+ (release_speed * 0.085993).

Ben Clemens

2:34

That's a problem with coefficients, though I do see your point overall. Like, the coefficient is similar between PFX_Z and plate_z, but adding a foot of vertical movement

2:35

is uh, kinda difficult

I also had a different-coefficient estimator, so there's something to that

but plate_z still dominates in that one, because the difference between a 1 foot high and 5 foot high pitch is so much more than any variation in movement

Does kinda surprise me that his pfx_z coefficient was larger than mine though

I'll look into it

Tiger Fan

2:37

What’s a realistic expectation for Manning at this point? Mid rotation arm or is the prospect shine still real?

Ben Clemens

2:39

I think the shine is still somewhat real

2:40

I'm not saying he's gonna be great, but the raw stuff is there

namiki

2:41

Is it possible to calculate VAA from Baseball Savant's csv file?

Ben Clemens

2:42

Yeah -- you could use that equation baseball fan posted above, or there's a link to another similar calculation (based on regressing trackman readings) in a link in my article from today

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