JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/21 | 8/23/2021

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/21

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Ben Clemens

3:29

He's great!

And it feels like he's healthy (he said hopefully)

Randy

3:30

Why does it seem that projections continue to undervalue the production the Giants have sustained this season? I recognize the Dodgers are a substantially better team, but shouldn't results speak for themselves? When was the last time a team was in first since the end of April still so doubted this far along in the season?

Ben Clemens

3:30

Because projections weight several years of performance and the Giants have a ton of players having career-best or turn-back-the-clock years

3:31

It's an interesting question, and you could argue that maybe the projections are too slow to pick up changes

But Dan (and Jared Cross of Steamer) didn't just build models 10 years ago and sit on them without changing them

They're constantly trying to improve them and eliminate blind spots and bias

I'm not saying they're right, but I am saying that they're not just saying 'nope I think the Giants suck'

Correa

3:32

Would that be an even bigger story than a former Red Sox player coming to the Bronx? Wow.

Ben Clemens

3:32

Oh yeah it'd be AWESOME

Also the fans would love him right away obv

Assuming he produced

Steve O

3:32

Isn't it absolutely insane that those benefits count against payroll?

Ben Clemens

3:32

I dunno, I'm not so weirded out by it

It's weird that they're variously reported or not reported

3:33

But if you said, say, half of revenues go to players

Wouldn't you count paying for health insurance as some of that money th at goes to players?

I think I would

Bob

3:33

Better future value, Kelenic or Adell?

Ben Clemens

3:33

I'm on Kelenic but can neither confirm nor deny that it's mostly b/c A-Rod was drooling over Adell last night and he's the kiss of death

Steve O

3:34

I just thought it was strange since the NBA and NFL don't do that. I'm sure it's factored in somehow, just not into payroll.

Ben Clemens

3:35

Yeah, I think it makes sense to have it more in the background somewhere

But I think it does factor into the NBA's revenue sharing. I should do some more reading on that

Lash

3:35

How do you feel about Aaron Ashby? Over 14 K/9 in the minors and with the organization with the Midas touch. Anything to be excited about there? Part 2 - do the Brewers add any value to a SP prospect compared to an average org?

Ben Clemens

3:35

Definitely something to be excited about there. I think at this point I'm a buyer of Brewers starting prospects

3:36

I dunno what the organization is doing right but they're inarguably doing something right

Billy Beanie

3:36

Remember when Isaiah Kiner-Falefa was mad he didn't get all-star votes... what happened?

Ben Clemens

3:37

Bat got cold, and defense too. I almost wonder if he's hurt

He's been making a ton of contact even as he slumps, which is not how you u sually see it

Rothschild

3:38

With 36ish games to go, do you think we see Mackenzie Gore appear in a major league game this season?

Ben Clemens

3:38

No. Think they're likely to let him keep revamping his delivery over the offseason

Alright, a quick lightning round, and then I'm gonna go have some lunch.

Reheating some kung pao chickpeas I made over the weekend

Joe

3:38

Re: the salary floor, why do you add the 15 million per team?

Ben Clemens

3:38

I'm not adding it, I'm looking at the CBT calculations major league baseball d oes. They count non-payroll player expensese

Lash

3:38

What grade would you give the Cubs and Nats on their tear downs/rebuilds? Did any other team do a good job in your opinion?

Ben Clemens

3:39

Incomplete on both

The Cubs got good value trading their expiring contracts, now we see if they want to suck for five years while they develop 19-year-olds or try to be good quickly again

Nats, I like what they're doing building around Soto but they need to sign people this offseason to make that work

Billy Beanie

3:39

At some point the A's have to bench Andrus and see what Chapman or Harrison or Lowrie or even Pinder can do at SS, right? They're running an NL-style lineup out there every day with his sub-.600 OPS... (Also, why were they not making calls on, like, Miguel Rojas?)

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