JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/20

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Ben Clemens

3:03

That's a lot of what baseball is!

Spending it on fines to cheat? Eh

Guest

3:04

Odds of Cora lifetime ban? 3+ year ban?

Ben Clemens

3:04

Lifetime, I'm going to say <5%. I won't put an exact number on it.

But I don't think it's likely

3:05

3+ years? I'll put it at 25%, 2 at 40%

John Olerud's Helmet

3:05

Oh wise one Mr Ben!! Enlighten thee!! Will Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal finish 1&2 in the AL ROY this season?

Ben Clemens

3:05

I'm not going to give anything away, but I have about seven good article titles lined up for Madrigal, so I hope so.

Silver Lining

3:05

So, time to sign some free agents with attached qualifying offers, since the Astros will now be forfeiting lower-level draft picks?

Ben Clemens

3:06

I mean, that would be savvy if you thought the Astros weren't most concerned, this offseason, with saving money. But given that they've talked about trading Correa and didn't even play on Cole, I'm pretty sure they're trying to save money.

Morbo

3:07

You think its likely Cora gets a larger ban than Hinch and Luhnow? Why?

Ben Clemens

3:07

So, this is definitely speculation, but:

No players were disciplined by Major League Baseball in the Astros' investigation. While Mets manager Carlos Beltran was part of it, he was a player at the time and thus was not suspended.

Discipline for Red Sox manager Alex Cora is coming. It is going to be harsh, per sources.

Zach

3:07

Welp Lunhow and Hinsch just got fired.

Ben Clemens

3:07

Jim Crane just fired Jeff Luhnow and AJ Hinch.

That's a long suspension!

A forever one

Proposal

3:07

Proposal: Make all sign stealing of every sort legal. Leave it to catchers/teams to hide signs.

Ben Clemens

3:07

Uh, pass. Pass so much

3:08

Why would you want this?

All this does is slow the game down more for no gain

No one wants to watch teams steal signs. I'm fine with players taking little edges but this seems crazy to me.

Guest

3:08

Yea what do you think QO penalty for HOU is now?

Ben Clemens

3:08

If I recall correctly, it'd be their highest pick, so third round pick?

Morbo

3:09

I'm actually shocked that the astros fired them. Luhnow more so than Hinch. Managers are more replaceable than a good GM/POBO

Ben Clemens

3:10

I'm more shocked by Luhnow than Hinch, but the Astros FO, at this point, might be causing more trouble for Crane than they're worth. Advantages aren't permanent, personnel changes, and it could be that he was employing the guys who were really valuable 5 years ago but are just average now, and in exchange getting alllllll this awful behavior for it.

Johnnt5Alive

3:11

I think the astros penalty regarding QO if I read correctly is that it will be 2 first rounders, so if they would lose one due to singing a free agent, that year doesn't count and they would instead lose their next first round pick.

Ben Clemens

3:11

I need to read through this. That would be a very clever way to do it, and in fact makes sense. If that's the case, then wow signing a free agent is very bad for them now.

Matt

3:11

Do you think Crane was aware of the punishments ahead of time and able to mull this decision, or do you think he got the info relatively real time and just reacted with the firings?

Ben Clemens

3:11

Oh 100%. I don't know how far in advance, but they didn't just tell the Astros on one line while someone called Jeff Passan on another line.

DJ Tanner

3:12

Why wouldn't the Giants invite Heliot Ramos to Spring Training as non-roster invitee? He's a top 3 prospect for them in AA, not far from the Show, wouldn't it make sense to get his feet wet with the big boys?

Ben Clemens

3:12

I think they should! I think sending prospects to spring training should be done more often

Derek

3:13

Yeah, I think the firings read to me mostly as Crane just being fed up with everything. Obviously he has some level of tolerance for unsavory-leaning behavior, but there has to be a line somewhere!

Ben Clemens

3:13

I agree with this. Here are some things we can say with certainty

5 years ago, the Astros front office was one of the very best in the game.

3 years ago, the Astros front office was one of the very best in the game.

3:14

Currently, the Astros player development system seems amazing, though I'm not convinced they are playing 4d chess at the GM level.

Currently, the Astros front office is trying to do every scandal all at once.

So like.... maybe just fire Luhnow, keep the guys you still think offer some juice, and start over?

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins

3:14

Will Luhnow and Hinch work in baseball again? This seems like a final nail type of deal.