JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/20

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Ben Clemens

2:46

Yeah, Catan is really fun, though I think its age shows at times; it can feel a little politic-y and dice-roll-dependent for my tastes at times.

2:47

If you want a fun game to play with a small group, and are the kind of person who reads FanGraphs, I know I've loved Sherlock Holmes: Consulting Detective

Every playthrough takes an hour or so, and is a case: it's cooperative, and you try to look for clues to solve a mystery like Sherlock Holmes.

You can make an evening out of it and have a dinner party for four, or just play with two people, and my wife and I always have fun with it.

Stephan

2:48

Any thoughts I who is most likely to become this year's Most valuable late rd.SP's.? I.E. 2018 Bieber, Paddack, Giolito.

Ben Clemens

2:50

So, I'm not your go-to guy for fantasy most likely, because I haven't played in a few years, though I'm going to pick it up again this year I think. But in terms of players I like to break out this year, I'm pretty interested in Adrian Houser. I have no idea if he's cheap or not, but if the Brewers are going to give him 30 starts, I think there's something there. Love the changeup, love the fastball, love getting to face NL central offenses.

Jon

2:50

"And that seems weird given their construction?"

Ben Clemens

2:51

As in, they're built to win in 2020. They have aging players they should be trying to maximize now. The forever dynasty thing is tough to do, especially if you're not signing Mookie Betts to a long-term contract, and taking a step back in a really tough division when you know that you have Chris Sale semi-healthy this year seems weird.

2:52

Like the way you become a forever dynasty is through smart drafting, but also through locking up stars. Don't trade your stars if you're trying to compete is my view.

Settler X

2:52

Ah yeah the trick is finding a game that both I and my non-fangraphs reading wife will enjoy. Catan has struck that balance for now but I’m sure we’ll be looking for another game shortly.

Ben Clemens

2:53

Makes sense. I will say that I think co-op games are underrated. Tons of fun to play together and getting the endorphins of winning without squabbling is nice.

Nick

2:53

Practically speaking, how does MLB suspend Luhnow from his GM duties? Are they going to track his movements to ensure he doesn't show up at the stadium? Monitor his phone calls and text messages to ensure he's not giving directions to staff?

Ben Clemens

2:54

Presumably yes? More likely they'll monitor the team's emails and stuff, but I doubt he's allowed in the stadium, and so on so forth.

j

2:54

Shouldn't every team cheat as much as possible if this is the punishment? if it's true that the draft picks are worth 40 million and the fine is 5. What team couldn't afford a one time 45 million dollar investment to get better?

Ben Clemens

2:55

I don't think so. 45 million dollars is a lot. And I think it would be really hard to quantify how much gain the Astros got from the scandal, but I can't imagine the ROI is higher than spending money in the international market or on player development.

Now, if you add in the fact that they almost didn't get caught, maybe that makes it more reasonable if you're totally amoral? But I'm skeptical any team is going to look at this and think 'yes this is what I should do.'

Johnnt5Alive

2:56

Games that are fun for small groups - exploding kittens! But also there are a number of semi-RPG card games that are fun, like Bang! (a spaghetti western inspired game), Donner Dinner Party, etc.

Ben Clemens

2:56

Oh yes exploding kittens is great. Also Letter Jam if your small group likes crosswords/word games.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins

2:56

I hope the acting Astros GM trades for Mookie.

Ben Clemens

2:56

Oh yes please. That would be so fun.

Mookie follow up

2:56

But I completely get your point about not trading your stars in building a dynasty. In the Sox case, however, this would be a way out of their current mess with bad contracts and not much support coming from the minors.

Ben Clemens

2:57

Yeah if you think the Sox aren't good this year, then maybe. I think they're pretty good this year, and that they should try to win now, let Mookie leave (or preferably keep him) and go from there. If a return bowls you over that's one thing, but if you're getting, say, a borderline top 100 prospect for literally Mookie Betts, why?

Tito Landrum IV

2:57

Assuming that Arenado opts into the remainder of his deal, what sort of STL package brings him in? Gorman/Liberatore/Fowler (or Carpenter)/Hudson? Does 2 sinkerballers, a future 3b, and a current 3b makes it work?

Ben Clemens

2:57

This is like, soooooo far over the top.

If I were the Rockies, I would snap this deal off instantly

2:58

Like, I'd say no-take-back-sies

I'm gonna paste in someone else's speculation:

JJ

2:58

I agree some of the trade talk with re: Arenado seem so far out there. Do you feel like I do that Stanton is a similar trade and that the Rockies should be looking at a couple minor league pieces and maybe one MLB piece who isn't crazy expensive? The only way I see them getting someone like Liberatore is taking on Fowler or Carpenter right? And wouldn't STL be interested in 4 years of Donaldson at $10mil less if they couldn't get rid of Carpenter. It just doesn't pass the smell test to me.

Ben Clemens

3:00

So yeah, this is what I'm thinking. Arenado is better than Stanton, but he isn't cheap. Assuming he declines his opt out right away, you can ballpark him as something like 27.5 WAR for $227.5 million (these are extreme ballpark numbers using bad aging assumptions).

That's great, and there's value in having someone so awesome on your team.

3:01

But it's not *that* great. Maybe you could do something like Fowler, Liberatore, TON, and a bulk prospect? That would seem reasonable to me, though I don't think the Rockies would necessarily do it even if the numbers lined up.

3:02

But if you're the Cardinals, why spend so much for Arenado when you've been complaining about financial constraints?

There's something weird about it to me.

Morbo

3:02

If I'm STL I'd probably do the Arenado trade for Gorman, (Fowler or Carpenter), and Hudson

Ben Clemens

3:02

Yeah Hudson over TON/bulk prospect, sure

Mookie follow up

3:02

"If you're getting, say, a borderline top 100 prospect for literally Mookie Betts, why?" - Wouldn't you assume the return would be Goldy return +?

Ben Clemens

3:03

Well I thought the Cardinals overpaid by a lot in that, and I think I'd rather have a year of Mookie than that return; so if it's more than Goldy, that'd be interesting. Less than or equal to, eh.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

3:03

People, if you want to spend $45 milli to get better for a season, grab the top 1-2 FAs on one-year deals. The trash can system was of questionable value. That Cole pitcher, on the other hand, is a proven commodity. We're better than this.

Ben Clemens

3:03

Yeah, wholeheartedly agree.

There are ways to use money to get better.

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