JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/25

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Ben Clemens

2:33

they needed to sign an elite reliever

Nate

2:33

People are giving the Orioles some well-deserved grief but let's not forget that the Twins have yet to sign a single major-league deal in a winnable division

Ben Clemens

2:33

Oh that's worse for sure

I do think that a lot of the O's grief is about their multi-year arc more so than 2024-2025 winter

2:34

the Twins tv deal collapse and associated team spending freeze is pretty gross though

Sam

2:34

How do you balance your fandom with your knowledge of optimal baseball strategy? Asking as a Mets fan whose torn between wanting the Mets to pay whatever it takes to keep Alonso and knowing much more than a 3 year deal is going to get ugly

Ben Clemens

2:34

I basically throw it all away when I feel strongly as a fan

so this is based on other sports

in baseball, I gave up hardcore fandom to do this as my job

2:35

but in other sports, I'm guided by optimal strategy unless i feel strongly. and if I feel strongly, well, sports are about making me happy

wheelhouse

2:35

speaking of bellinger: what's your read on what he's physically capable of at this stage of his career? not like slash line predictions, but is the bat speed he once had gone gone or in reserve after a change in approach? is his defense far enough along in decline that he shouldn't be in centerfield?

Ben Clemens

2:35

I think the bat speed is probably gone

2:36

like... he was 13th percentile in the first year of measuring

and even at his peak, I feel like he was more a lift-and-pull guy than a pure bat speed type

2:37

footspeed, I'm willing to give him a chance to bounce back

I think that he also has elite defensive instincts, which can make average athleticism play up

I could be wrong, of course. but I'd be willing to take the chance if I were the Yankees

Theo be Praised

2:37

I am a Michael Busch skeptic; the batted ball data doesn't look great and I wonder if he'll hit enough to contribute at 1B long-term. Should I be concerned?

Ben Clemens

2:37

oh yeah I feel the same

Obviously, I could be wrong

I'm wrong all the time

2:38

but I am not a big fan of his profile

Bosoxforlife

2:38

Pete Alonso's situation is puzzling. All things considered he has far more value to the Mets than any other team. He is as much the face of the franchise as the incomparable Lindor and has tremendous marketing value. His consistently low BABIP, ridiculously so in 2023, seems bizarre for a player who hits the ball as hard as he does. In the equally bizarre world of today's contracts he is a man I wouldn't hesitate to pay him a lot more than Joc Peterson and many others who are reaping windfalls this off-season.

Ben Clemens

2:38

I mean, I think he should stay on the Mets

Thank you for the chat!

2:40

Arenado to Yanks, Stroman to As, what are the missing pieces for a three way trade?

Ben Clemens

2:40

Oh, this is a fun one

okay, so the Cards eat some of Arenado's salary, let's say

but not all, the Yankees are more willing to make this deal if they offlay Stroman's deal

2:41

The A's chip in a minor prospect who heads to St. Louis. The Yankees chip in a 45FV type

I could see that working

Theo be Praised

2:41

Do you think the Cubs will regret that Kyle Tucker trade? He's a great player, but only 1 year.....and Cam Smith might be a dude

Ben Clemens

2:41

I definitely do not

do you know how hard teams try to get players as good as Kyle Tucker?

Alf

2:42

From a strictly financial perspective, is there any way to justify Roki Sasaki's decision to come to the US now versus waiting until he could come over as a free agent? Is it possible he could make up enough money off the field that it's not a huge financial loss?

Ben Clemens

2:42

Yeah, here's an argument for you

Sasaki isn't a Yamamoto level complete package

he'd get a decent deal, no doubt, but not record setting

2:45

by coming now, he's going to hit free agency younger, and he'll get to pick the team he wants to develop with

so he hits free agency at 29 and gets a bag?

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