JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/13/25

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Ben Clemens

2:59

fwiw our projection systems agree with me too

3:00

ZiPS is the low one by far and has him with a 112 OPS+, 3 WAR

Wags

3:00

Brady SInger a good fit of GABP?

Ben Clemens

3:00

man, good question

the grounders, yes

the fact that he doesn't strike anyone out, not at all

i think it'll net out okay

and that he's more or less a neutral fit

Ken

3:00

How concerned should A's fans be about Severino pitching in Sacramento? Outside of Citi Field, his ERA was 5.

Ben Clemens

3:01

nah, I wouldn't worry about that specifically

3:02

not a huge split in K/BB things, he ran a .270 BABIP at home with really juiced things but similar FIP and xFIP (better xFIP on the road actually)

which* really juiced things

Steve O

3:02

If you're the Red Sox do you prefer to extend Crochet now, or to wait and see if he can stay healthy for more than one season?

Ben Clemens

3:02

I'd extend him now if he were willing to take a reasonable deal

b/c honestly, I think he should accept a discount for certainty, and that's a great position the Sox are in

3:03

if you wait, you're just getting market rate one way or another. why not monetize the fact that you get to develop many players over many years and assume a little bit of their risk (will he get hurt?) in exchange for a deal

that's an everyone happy situation in my eyes

John B

3:03

Luis Matos posted an .880 ops in the Venezuelan winter league and won ROY. I know he struggled last year but he's just turning 23 and has shown a ton of promise at times in the past. Do you think he could be poised for a breakout season?

Ben Clemens

3:03

look, I've been wrong before

I definitely told people to keep Matos over Ramos in fantasy last year b/c I thought his spot was pretty locked up with JHL on the IL

but uh.... no, this time I'm out

3:04

I'm sure a few hustle doubles and a nice defensive play will chnage my mind again in May, but nah, I think that the outfield is too crowded and he's had too many chances

at best I think he needs a change of scenery

Bosoxforlife

3:04

I am trying to figure out the AL East. First of all, I can't put my finger on why the Blue Jays stink. I haven't been able to answer my question whether the Yankees are better or worse after losing 1/2 of one the better one-two acts of all-time. The Orioles appear to be blowing their opportunity to get what they should from the hoard of prospects they have and the Rays are playing in a spring training venue. The Red Sox just might be ready to ascend.

Ben Clemens

3:04

Yeah, good year for the Red Sox for sure. Also a good year for the Jays to ascend, imo

I agree with you that I don't get why they're bad. maybe that means they'll just be good

Baloo

3:04

Biased, but wouldn't Sasaki in Detroit be an incredibly fun outcome? Jobe and Sasaki behind Skubal would be cool af. And they have a very good reputation for pitching development, so maybe it's not just a pipe dream? JK, I know it won't happen. :(

Ben Clemens

3:04

yeah I would be into it

Sir Nerdlington

3:04

Sure, sure offseason isn't over, but the Cubs have one of the largest payroll drops on the heels of trading for Kyle Tucker feels horrifically short-sighted. Talk me off the ledge, please.

Ben Clemens

3:05

maybe they'll get Sasaki, get encouraged and sign Flaherty, then somehow luck into one more contributor from a team looking to shake up their roster. Also the NLC will be bad, and the Cubs will cruise to the division title

Matt

3:05

Thoughts on Josh Naylor for 2025? Will he continue his 2024 performance?

Ben Clemens

3:05

the odds seem good given that he's basically been this player for three years in a row

3:06

I think that he'll continue to be really bad on the bases and defensively, but hit 20% above average thanks to some power and a low strikeout rate. I'm into it

that's a great above avearge 1b right there

in a very standard way, too

i think it's no surprise that the projection systems all peg him right around 2 wins

Justin

3:06

Who do you think comprise a larger percentage of A's fans/watchers this year. Former Oakland A's fans or future Las Vegas A's fans.

Ben Clemens

3:07

former oakland a's fans

maybe that'll change in a year or two

I think there is very little A's buzz in Vegas yet

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