JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/24/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/24/22

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Ben Clemens

2:12

Agree!

2:13

You can do something around the September roster expansion and exemptions

But you shouldn't get an advantage from calling someone up in May instead of April

Moog Powell

2:13

Are there any defensive metrics that take into the different surface areas of coverage for outfielders? Like is their a positive positional adjustment for playing CF in Comerica or a negative adjustment for only having to cover LF at Fenway?

Ben Clemens

2:14

The best option for this would probably be Statcast's Outs Above Average, but it's my understanding that all of the major outfield defense ones do control for that

I understand the OAA methodology best, and it takes distance to cover, time to cover distance, and walls into account

So it actually looks at how far you'd have to run to catch a given ball

The outfielders who play small parks are just going to have easier chances on average, so they'll get less credit

Rachel

2:14

What are the chances the Angels make Ohtani a full time hitter taking the pitching away? Thanks!

Ben Clemens

2:15

Uh

It's like 5%

and it involves a catastrophic arm injury

He's probably the best pitcher on the team (depending on Thor's recovery)

Baseball Enthusiast

2:16

I was super intrigued by how you calculated spin axis for that Luke Weaver article today. Any way you can share the formula/way to do that for the rest of us? I think it could be a good way measure to SSW for the public.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Oh yeah it's super easy. You just take the arctangent of the pitch's movement

2:17

So like, this will just calculate the 'observed' axis

Like Statcast reports

But here's my awful formula for it in Excel

=180-(ATAN(AC2/AB2))*180/PI()

AC2 is VMov, AB2 is HMov

2:18

I said 'SOH CAH TOA' out loud for the first time in decades while writing that article

laughing

2

Guest

2:18

How do you personally watch baseball? I've found myself watching a game with Baseball Savant open or going there when something catches my eye. Is it a stream of consciousness thing where you think "Hey I wonder about ___" and then look it up?

Ben Clemens

2:18

Very stream of consciousness unless I'm watching a gamer

watching baseball is one of my favorite things to do, which is how I got into this job in the first place

2:19

So usually when I watch I like to listen to the announcers, watch the game, and whenever I have a question about what just happened, I'll pull up the Savant gamefeed

Moog Powell

2:19

Re: OF Defensive statistics; Does OOA (or any other defensive metric) have any penalty for batted balls not caught? And if so, would that at all be weighted towards outfield dimension?

Ben Clemens

2:19

They all do!

So for every batted ball chance, they figure out how likely you were to catch it

(that's the secret sauce in them that's hard to do)

Then let's say it's a 33% chance

If you miss it, they dock you 33% of an out

If you catch it, you get 67% of an out credit

PackOdds

2:19

arctangents are for lovers.

The Real Ben Clemens

2:20

Thoughts on the reports that the Royals are considering shifting Bobby Witt to 3rd to allow Lopez to stay at short? Obviously Lopez's defense is fantastic, but it sort of feels like a mistake to not at least let Witt get a chance to stick there.

Ben Clemens

2:20

I think I'm okay with what they're doing, but boy it feels strange to move your solid shortstop prospect off of shortstop

2:21

Like... Lopez won't be there forever, Bogaerts came up at third and moved to short and was just fine, etc.

But it's just so weird!

DK

2:22

Do you buy Tyler O'Neill as a 130+ wRC+ hitter? Not a ton of comps for a guy with his barrel rate, max EV, whiff/K rate, and sprint speed.

Bob

2:22

Odds that TON goes 40-40 next year? what about 30-30?

Ben Clemens

2:22

The Pillar of Meat is getting a lot of love (both among Cards fans and fantasy people I talk to), and I am into it

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