JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/26/26

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Ben Clemens

2:30

Rizzo ran so hot in the mid-2010s that he got a very long leash

and well, at some point that caught up with him because he didn't adapt to the changing game

Random Fact Generator

2:30

Randy Johnson was traded to Houston during his age 34 season. He produced 66 WAR after that trade.

Ben Clemens

2:30

amazing

bosoxforlife

2:30

I am trying to solve the Red Sox 3rd base situation. I am content to put Mayer there but a deal with the Astros for Paredes, who seems to be a perfect fit for Fenway, would make me even more content. At the same time grabbing Geno off the bargain basement list also sounds intriguing. There is something about the name Geno that stirs the juices here in CT. Please help me solve this conundrum.

Ben Clemens

2:31

I think that I'd list the options Paredes/Mayer/Geno

Eh, actually, I take that back: let's put Mayer last, because I think playing Mayer there assumes no further external additions ot the offense

2:32

and that seems like a bad plan to me. I just think that a season where they don't need Mayer at at least one of short and second seems unlikely without further acquisitions

It's amazing ot me that hte Sox have been very active this offseason and yet their projected infield outside of first is Romy Gonzalez, Trevor Story, and Mayer

2:33

Story is 33 and has hit 600 PA once since COVID

Romy might work out, but he's coming off a career year by a mile at age 28, and while you can hope that continues, not having a backup plan if it doesn't is irresponsible

wrights_back

2:34

You guys ever write up trades which examines the transaction from a holistic standpoint?  What I mean by this is examining how a front office evaluates high variance or rookie talent versus 'surer things.'
For example, there are many moving parts in the Peralta trade:  undervalued stud pitcher whose WAR is probably bankable, and high variance rookies whose potential is sky high, but also have a chance to crap out.
I guess what I'm trying to say is "how would you integrate outcomes in arriving at a fair dollar figure over time for a trade?"   If we assume Szym's WAR numbers are normally distributed, isn't this possible?
(Tired typing now, stopping here).

Ben Clemens

2:34

i mean, it's sadly incompatible with the way we produce content

the audience wants articles about trades that just happened, quite reasonably

most of my work is disposable

and that's on purpose

2:35

the kind of analysis you're discussing is not something you just bang out. I'm trying to do one on the Mets offseason and it's taking a long time

also, you want to be really careful in evaluating something like this, because there aren't a lot of generally accepted definitions for the stuff you're trying ot measure

2:36

I'm very cognizant of trying not to be too certain when I dont' know, and this kind of analysis is particularly difficult in that light. If you're intellectually honest and trying to evaluate a variable distribution of talent across four players in a trade on a deadline, your answer should be 'I'm not sure' every time

Insert Witty Name Here

2:36

Is it just me, or is it absurd that there’s a low number of CF’s in the HOF. That’s one of the most important positions up the middle, you’d think there would be more capable players there.

Ben Clemens

2:36

you should check out Tom Tango's twitter/bluesky, he has some really good points on this

2:37

basically, do you think Tim Raines was a CF? I sure do

but the 'number of CFs in the hall' says Raines is an RF

er, very sorry, Andre Dawson, yeesh

2:38

got my expos mixed up

9000 innings (elite) in CF. 10000 innings (decline phase) in RF

I think that the definition of 'center fielder' and the way that aging works leads CF to 'look' underrpresented even more so than it is

Insert Witty Name Here

2:39

Book recs for pre-spring training? Doesn’t have to be baseball related.

Ben Clemens

2:39

ooh! I just read 'Breath' by James Nestor, really interesting even if I thought some of it was a bit off the wall

I read 'the last murder at the end of the world' by Stuart Turton, highly recommended if you're into suspense and sci fi

I think it was perhaps TOO shyamalan-y, but very good overall

2:40

I really loved re-reading "The Player of Games" by Iain M. Banks over the holidays, perhaps my favorite sci fi book ever

I've also been pretty into Emily Henry of late, and I'd say "Funny Story" is my favorite of hers, if you're interested in a very different genre

Interested person

2:41

How do you think fangraphs is going to update projections next winter based on these crazy high aav deals like Bichette, Tucker, Bregman last year?

Ben Clemens

2:41

So in this instance, FanGraphs means me, since I do our projections for free agency

2:42

I know how I'm going to handle it, actually. I run two separate models, one for length and another that takes length as an input and predicts AAV

I think that I'm going to have to work kind of heavily on the length predictor model, because I had redone it for older pitchers in recent years but hadn't expanded it to position players yet

2:42

I just want to vent about how frustrating it is as a Tigers fan to go from Mike Ilitch going for broke to one of his sons who's biggest annual move is signing a 5th starter.

Ben Clemens

2:42

seems bad, sorry!

2:43

my late grandfather was a lifelong huge Tigers fan. he passed away before Ilitch, and I have to say, I wish he got to see Skubal but I'm glad he doesn't have to hear the spendthriftiness

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