JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/26/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/26/26

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QO

2:43

Have you ever looked into quantifying how the QO impacts players that are not obviously at the very top where it doesn't matter or if they are older? No one denies it hurts players, but I haven't been able to find any writing that attempted to quantify how much it might impact earnings/years or anything (though I get it's very difficult and would have a ton of caveats)

Ben Clemens

2:43

i tried, and then I gave up

2:44

it's just not a fruitful area of research

the effect sizes are small, the sample is small, and crucially, my readership doesn't care much

so it'd be a very hard slog for little gain. If I worked for an agency or the MLBPA it'd make a lot more sense as a project

Mel

2:44

Thoughts on any additional moves by the Phillies. Roster construction and payroll limits big FA additions, but there are still needs (SP depth, another RH bat). Do you buy DD’s “I like our roster” comments or is there one more needle moving play up his sleeve?

Ben Clemens

2:45

I mean, I don't like their roster, I think it's too light on the pitching side

the RH bat, I'm with you but I think it's less pressing

I think there's very little chance that Dombrowski is actually happy with their current SP situation. But whether he has the authority to fix it, or whether they're waiting to see how the current crop works out and then planning on adding at midseason, i don't know

Bog

2:46

You think you will be able to predict with any confidence the players that get short high AAV deals? It seems like mostly just a personal choice by the player

Ben Clemens

2:46

I sure don't!

But I need to include it in the model anyway

so that I am at least aware of the possibility

I'm with you, though. I actually th ink that these things are almost unmodelable. But you know, that wouldn't be a very good article

Derri

2:46

Three weeks ago, Kyle Tucker sends his about-to-be new contract to all 30 teams. The Dodgers aren't the only ones who actually agree to these terms, right?

Ben Clemens

2:46

correct

The Actor for Al Pacino

2:46

Cactus League vs. Grapefruit League, which do you prefer as a fan show follows almost every team?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I've never actually been to the Cactus league, b/c I grew up on the East Coast and go to Fall League when I go to AZ for games now

but the experience in AZ is incredible and I'm sure it's the better of the two if you're going to follow your team around. The locations are better, and I vastly prefer the dry spring heat to the humidity

2:48

Salt River Fields in particular is a great stadium, too

added benefit if you're a person who gets nauseous in car rides: not in Arizona you don't

the roads are in much better shape than my northeastern brain could comprehend

2:49

my wife was shocked at how un-motion-sick she got in our drive all the way across town

bosoxforlife

2:49

I am mystified by the Red Sox roster construction as of now. 4 good outfielders, a questionable infield, 8,311 starting pitchers while there are no left-handed pitchers with any proven bullpen experience or competence. Is it possible that they are planning on using Early, Tolle and Harrison as the primary bullpen arms?

Ben Clemens

2:49

I'm wondering right alongside you

I do think that Harrison is a reliever, to be fair

2:50

not that I would have managed him diffrently last year. I just think that his stuff is too natural of a match for the bullpen longterm

I mean, they should trade an outfielder, the same thing you and I would have said last May

they're not going to trade an outfielder, it seems. so in that context I like that they at least built some pitching depth. but i hate that they seem unwilling to build infield depth

2:51

I think that they're going to give the young guys in the bullpen to start but that they'll use them aggressively in case of injury, and honestly even not in case of injury in Oviedo's case

Guest

2:51

Giant "great" Mike Yastremski signs for 2/23. New Giant Harrison Bader signs for 2/20.5. Who do you prefer?

Ben Clemens

2:51

Bader by a lot

2:52

I wrote up the Yaz trade and basically said the Braves were paying a premium b/c they wanted this guy specifically, and that I would not agree with that assessment

Bader was in my top 50 free agents, and in the middle, like 25-30 range. Yaz didn't make it. Maybe I had too harsh of a hitter cutoff this year, but like..... every hitter is doing worse than our crowdsourcing, almost

2:53

Yaz beat his projection by 13 million, he's actually the third-highest-paid outfielder to sign this winter!

so like... yeah, that was probably a reach

Welland Jackfish

2:53

if Harrison is a reliever, the Sox' return for Devers looks even worse. Just "we broke our relationship" and then salary dump.

Ben Clemens

2:53

I mean, I might be wrong

who knows

2:54

but he has a reliever-y profile, and he was doing swingman duty in SF before he got traded

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