JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/20

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Ben Clemens

2:34

I think MLB will handle people throwing at them like they handle all intentional HBP's, and that's fine with me. I honestly wish they would enforce stricter penalties on them.

Ryan

2:35

Given the depth the Rays potentially have in their rotation right now (McKay, Banda, Beeks, Richards, etc. all sitting at AAA), do you see a ST trade happening with Chirinos or Yarbrough? Would be a very Rays move to make, trying to capitalize on some other team's desperation.

Ben Clemens

2:37

I mean, it would be a very Rays trade. But uh, what do you think those guys fetch in trade? I like Chirinos quite a bit, and Yarbrough okay, but for it to make sense for them, they'd need to acquire prospects who don't need 40-man protection or stars. They're not getting stars for them. So I guess they'd be aiming for prospects. Maybe they should see if the Cardinals are interested in Chirinos and Yarbrough for this young power pitching prospect they have.

Libera-something.

Dan

2:37

What's the most likely reason the Cards didn't upgrade the offense? Sunk cost for Carp/Fowler? Too high payroll overall? Giving opportunity to prospects?

Ben Clemens

2:38

This is a good question, and I don't know that we'll ever get an answer from them, so I'll just have to hypothesize. I think the team is reasonably banking on a bounceback from Carpenter, but I'm pessimistic there.

I think that they're also in the position where it's a tough team to upgrade, because honestly, Nick Castellanos versus whichever of hte prospects works out best isn't an obvious call to me.

2:39

It's a downer for 2020, because they'll have to play these guys a bit and might pick the wrong one, but the Cardinals are facing their usual issue of enough pretty decent guys that it's a tough roster to upgrade.

TomBruno23

2:39

Re Souza and Gennett from a Cubs buddy, "Cubs must have lost data on 2018 and 2019. Souza and Gennett were 2017 anomolies."

Ben Clemens

2:39

They're different types of anomaly, though.

2:40

Souza was a guy with prospect buzz who looked like he might be figuring it out. Gennett got waived by the Brewers!

2:40

Do you believe in Starlin Castro's huge second half, as he embraced launch angle, or mere half season of randomness.

Ben Clemens

2:40

Somewhere in between? Brendan again:

2:41

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/starlin-castro-signing-only-raises-more-qu...

He isn't a guy I'd particularly expect to benefit from a launch angle change

2:42

In that he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard.

And derives a lot of his value from not striking out.

But uh, sure? I could buy that our projections are a smidge low on him.

Alan Nolanado

2:42

It seems everyone turns a blind eye to Arenado's home/away splits... does anyone in the industry think he's overpaid?

Ben Clemens

2:44

Oh, you mean his awful away splits, where he has a 109 wRC+? League as a whole has a 94 wRC+ in away games, and he's dealing with a more difficult penalty than most due to the Coors hangover.

I mean, I just don't buy this narrative at all.

2:45

I'm not saying there's no risk, but people know park effects, you know? No team is going to be like "wait he played in COLORADO??? We've been had!"

Guest

2:45

Chirinos/Yarbrough to LAA for a 45+ prospect?

Alanando

2:45

You don't pay 35mil/year for 109+

Ben Clemens

2:46

Yeah but that's his road wRC+ man. People hit better at home! And he's a premium defender, too. That's also career, and he wasn't the hitter he is now when he was younger.

2:47

Like, I respect that he does not hit as well on the road as he does at home, but what do you really want here?

People haven't wildly misjudged him as a great hitter when he's bad or anything.

LeMahieu

2:47

Rockies players really do fine once they leave, you know

Ben Clemens

2:48

Haha I mean, true! But yeah, I dunno, this is just shades of "Larry Walker wasn't that good."

Kevin

2:48

I think the 3 hitter rule is a huge variance that fans are not talking about enough. We are going to see a lot more offense this year, and blown saves as relievers struggle to get out of an inning right?

Ben Clemens

2:48

I'm skeptical. I did some digging on this earlier this offseason:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-three-batter-minimum-barely-matters/

And didn't really find much change. I think it will increase scoring overall, that's for sure.

But probably not by a lot, and probably not in a way that tilts many teams' fortunes.

WIll

2:49

Sorry for yet another Cubs question, but how much improvement can we expect from Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, and Yu Darvish given their terrific second halves?

Ben Clemens

2:49

NL Central is the place to be right now! Let's take them in reverse order

2:50

Improvement from Darvish? I mean, I think he's awesome. I think he will continue to be awesome in 2020. His early-season struggles looked incredibly fluky to me, and heck, Steamer projects him for 3.8 WAR.

2:51

Schwarber: I'm skeptical about expecting improvement here. He was pretty good in 2019 overall, and I'm not exactly seeing where he's goin to add. A little BABIP regression maybe? More power seems tough, he was crushing everything in 2019. Also hard to project better health, he made 600 PA.

2:52

I think he kind of is what he is: an above-average regular who isn't as bad at defense as people think, but isn't as good at hitting as people think.

2:53

Happ: I don't have a strong feel here. I never really got the joke with him, never really bought in. And he absolutely crushed in limited 2019 reps, but I think the sample size is so tiny it wouldn't move the needle much. So: average-bat utility guy? I'm in for that

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