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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/20

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Desperate Times

2:54

Do you at all think that Luhnow’s rule-stretching reputation now at all vindicates Correa’s accusations that he was counter-hacking Luhnow’s Astros for first stealing info from STL?

Ben Clemens

2:54

I mean, I think those accusations were always somewhat credible, and also don't justify what Correa did.

2:55

If you woke up this offseason and were like "Wait, Jeff Luhnow is *sketchy*," then my friend, you've missed a decent amount of the past ten years

Mountie Votto

2:55

Do the Reds still need to address the bullpen? They were a bit lucky last year, and fell off some in the second half. Maybe a bounceback from Iglesias and a full year of domination from Garrett will help, and I can squint and see one of the reclamation projects working out (Nate Jones?) but I'm skeptical...

Ben Clemens

2:55

I'm a big Bob Steve fan

2:56

Lorenzen is real, too.

2:57

I'm sure they'd love a bullpen upgrade, but I don't see them as particularly needing it -- it'd just be a nice bonus. They go four deep in people I think are for real, and Lucas Sims struck out 32.2% of opposing batters in 2019.

Over not zero sample size.

Plus Mahle might get a few reps out of the pen, and he's nice too.

2:58

The back end of the pen is all has-beens and never-was'es, but that's baseball for you.

Matt

2:58

Is the thing about trading for Arenado not the home/road splits, but the fact that he's like the 30th best hitter (wRC+) but has the 3rd biggest contract in the sport? As soon as that superhuman run of health isn't there or the defense slips, this contract is rough.

Ben Clemens

2:59

Yeah I mean, that's for sure the risk. Trading for someone who doesn't have a true carrying tool but is just a star by doing lots of stuff well always feels suspect.

But look, that was basically Christian Yelich, right?

Albeit younger.

3:00

I think the real risk with Arenado is that he's more of a 3-4 WAR type guy who's just been playing out of his mind the past few years.

TomBruno23

3:00

Tis done, Marte to AZ for Liover Peguero and Brennan Malone

Ben Clemens

3:01

(furiously googles the prospects)

Oh yah

3:01

D backs trade for S. marte. Thoughts?

Ben Cherington

3:01

How did I do on my first trade in Pittsburgh?

Ben Clemens

3:02

This seems about right. Two years of Marte for two well-regarded youngsters who can push the Pirates window far off into the future. Fits with Cherington's Boston-era m.o., and I won't pretend to be an expert on the prospects involved. Eric and Kiley are great for that kind of stuff, and we'll have reaction to the trade (from Jay Jaffe with input from McDongenhagen) later todya.

Or perhaps tomorrow!

3:03

But yeah, this trade makes a lot of sense for both teams I think.

I am the Walrus

3:03

If the Bosox ate $45M of Myers contract could they get Patino for Betts?

Ben Clemens

3:04

There have been a few different amounts of salary eating suggested in this trade. It seems pretty reasonable to me! I wouldn't do it if I were the Sox, because Mookie Betts is awesome and Luis Patino is a 20-year-old pitcher who has made two starts above A-ball.

3:05

So if they're trying to be competitive now, it's weird.

But in the cult of always acquiring years of control and surplus value matches and so on, sure.

I think the math about adds up.

I'd love that trade for the Padres, though.

Nichols

3:05

Ben, you're basically the poster child for the "cult of the Rays" : "Trading with the Rays is hazardous for executives’ health. They’re liable to turn a pile of straw into a 3-WAR outfielder, and get you to chip in Shane Baz while you’re at it."

Ben Clemens

3:05

No argument here! It's easy to get mesmerized by how they always seem to come out a little ahead.

3:06

That said, I think that there are really two styles of Rays trade, and I like one of them more than the other.

3:07

There's the upside plays, where they go get guys like Glasnow (worked!) or Souza (didn't work!)

Who they think might be big-wattage talents

Or heck, Edwards this offseason.

Though I'm down on him a little

And I guess I'd include the consolidation trades in that, like when they shipped off a bunch of minor league chaff that was clogging their 40-man for Tommy Pham (Genesis Cabrera is at least interesting though)

3:08

I like that style of trade, because I think it's a good use of their player development pipeline

I'm less enamored with the endless flipping ones, because I don't know how much they actually help them

Like if the Rays trade a major league pitcher for a 45+ pitching prospect in Low A, they might win, for sure

3:09

But that's more of a roster churning trade. And while they have to do it, I'm not sure it helps them all that much in the long run.

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