JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/20

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Kevin

3:09

Thanks for the article share. Missed that when it was posted. I think you may be simplifying things (he says with no statistical support data) by only looking at LOOGY types. Starters are more likely to go 1 more out to start an inning, causing more relievers to have to start an inning with a runner on. And it will affect next day availability as guys will be used to get 3 outs instead of 1. And aren't we likely to see the manager strategically manage his late inning relievers more in the traditional 7th 8th 9th guy then the recent trend that teams like Tampa have been employing?

Ben Clemens

3:10

Yeah these are all fair things. That's offset by the fact that I assumed some rough penalties, but I do think it'll be interesting to watch. My initial guess is that it might make blowout games more blowout-y but if you discount that scoring, it won't be huge.

I was trying to figure out if it massively helped out pinch hitters, but I can't make the math work.

Like what I think it will actually do is help out lefties who hit 7th-9th

3:11

Because you can't really expose a lefty pitcher there as easily anymore.

3:12

Low-cost pinch hitting opportunity for the offense there at this point.

But again, I haven't been able to turn my thoughts into usable math yet.

2-D

3:12

In your opinion, most overrated board game?

Ben Clemens

3:12

Oh man great question. In the classic category, I'd say Diplomacy. That game has a cult following that I've never understood. It's like pulling teeth for me.

3:13

In terms of more modern games, I'd say something along the lines of Pandemic or Eldritch Horror. Co-op games need to be careful to avoid the one-person-boss issue, and while more recent games have been really clever about avoiding it, I think those have the potential to not work out well.

Games aren't fun if it's just one person telling everyone what to do.

The Ghost of Wade Boggs

3:14

Do you think the Reds parley Senzel for a Syndergaard or a Boyd or anyone else to send the rotation to the next stratosphere?

Ben Clemens

3:14

You can never have enough pitching -- but the Reds might have enough pitching??

3:15

Like, obviously Syndergaard could upgrade them. But there's a diminishing returns issue here; he crowds out desclafani, who's been worth 2+ WAR in three of the last four seasons.

And if they had no holes on the team, I'd say well whatever, pitchers get hurt, having DeSclafani as a swingman is amazing

But they really have issues at C and SS, and I'd prefer to see them address those in trade first.

Jake

3:16

Whata your take on assigning WAR values for pitchers based on FIP instead of ERA? Doesnt it make more sense to value someones work based on the actual results regarding limiting runs as opposed to expected results? A pitcher who gives up a screaming line drive that gets caught every time would give his team crazy value towards winning games and preventing runs, even if its not sustainable. (I write this as a Cardinals fan hoping Dakota Hudson continues to beat his peripherals). I gave probably a horrible example but you get the jist of what im asking i hope.

Ben Clemens

3:16

I think it depends on what you're looking for. If you want to say what happened, I'm mixed.

3:17

Like, in your example, did the pitcher give the value? Or the outfielders making the catches?

On the other hand, if a pitcher happened to get all his strikeouts with runners in scoring position and ran a crazy LOB%, well, he did that, even if it's not sustainable.

3:18

But honestly, if we're just saying what happened, I'm not sure I care all that much. I'm going to look at both, and given that I already know what happened, I can take plenty of time to make sure I get it right.

If we're talking about what *will* happen, I don't think there's any debate, FIP is better.

So if you're using WAR the way I think it's most commonly used, which is to say "Well this guy was x good this year, and this guy was y good this year, so I'd rather have x than y"

Then I'd rather use FIP