JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/27/25

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Ben Clemens

2:07

if pitchers really are this mujch more valuable than everyone else with team control, and they can actually hit on a few pitchers

hitters* rather

Basically, the M's have been tilting towards a worldview of "we value pitchers incredibly highly and aside from Julio just invest the scraps in hitters" from both a trade and free agency perspective

if that worldview is right? they'll do well

2:08

so far, they haven't been right. They've hoarded these pitchers and while they pitch well, they haven't hit enough for it to work

Ben

2:08

Can the Twins get Cease and dump Vasquez’ salary without giving up Jenkins or Rodriguez?

Matt

2:08

What do you see the Twins doing this offseason? It seems they have no clear holes to fill and limited payroll space, but I can't imagine them just running it back with the same crew.

Cease to the Twins for Vazquez, Larnach, SWR, and Andrew Morris. Who says no?

Ben Clemens

2:09

uh.... the Padres say no here almost for sure. I like SWR alright but he's a mid rotation guy really. and aside from that, there's not much here for the Padres

Preller is the king of trading five nickels for a quarter

2:10

he doesn't like to go the other way in deals

Caleb

2:10

Ryan Pressly - solid back-end reliever or overpaid low-to-mid leverage guy? The Astros covering $5.5MM tells me it may be closer to the latter

Ben Clemens

2:11

I think it's somewhere in between, but i think a lot of the issue here is that the Astros are cutting budget and downsizing, and he wasn't being maximized b/c they spent so much other money on relievers

that plus the no trade clause made a trade tricky, but they seem to be prioritizing money out the door

obviously with relievers it's always a crapshoot, you never know if they're cooked or just had a down month

2:12

but well, would you really rather give 1/9 to Michael Soroka than Pressly? What about 1/7 to Paul Sewald? I think these are of a piece

cool

2

Also: you guys are doing too well at submitting questions, I can't speed round this whole thing, but I'm gonna keep trying as much as possible

laughing

1

comish4lif

2:12

Is the Nats bullpen the worst bullpen in the NL?
Or, is it exactly the type of bullpen that exceeds expectations?

Ben Clemens

2:12

ask me again in six months

cool

1

2:13

in other words, bullpens are hard to predict

Joe

2:13

It looks like Baseball Trade Values estimate is the rest of Luis Castillo's contract is worth around only about $7M surplus value, and that on Baltimore guys like Mountcastle, Urias or Kremer INDIVIDUALLY have similar values, implying their model would accept 1:1 trades within that group. How would you assess or critique those readouts for real life?

Ben Clemens

2:13

baseball trade values doesn't work

it doesn't model real life trades or behavior all that well

2:14

i would basically say: stop using those readouts, and start thinking about trades critically from a perspective of supply, demand, and value above replacement

to paraphrase Kanye West, there's a thousand Mountcastles, there's only one ace

Castillo is a much more standout player than Mountcastle relative to the field at his position,a nd if your model says they're the same, it's probably wrong

Dan'l

2:14

Do you buy the messaging out of the Cards FO? Mo' wants to leave a clean slate for Bloom; so why didn't they let Bloom take over before this offseason (or walk down the hall and ask Bloom what he wants)? Or did they foresee a partial sell-off this offseason, but no one wanted to leave and now they're stuck...

Ben Clemens

2:15

I think it's kinda reasonable; i think a decent amount of it is to insulate Bloom from growing pains

they thought this offseason would be a bit more of a downturn than it was, but Arenado used his no trade clause after asking to get dealt so they got whipsawed

Guest

2:15

Is there any good writing that you or another esteemed author has done on the time value of WAR? How much WAR is 3 WAR one year from now worth?

Ben Clemens

2:16

I haven't seen any writing about it but I apply some linear discounting when I'm doing trade value stuff

that said, WAR is constant at 1,000 per year

so like... my discounting is only about teams caring more about the present and everything in the future, both costs and benefits, being discounted

Bullock's

2:16

I don't know how to look at a "really cannot hit a home run but elite speed and defense" prospect and tell whether he could have a great career like Juan Pierre, carve a spot for a few years like Ben Revere, or just get stuck as 4th/5th OF because major league pitchers just will not walk a guy that can't hurt them.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Here's the thing: scouts don't either

I have some fun research coming for Prospects Week that I think will make this point with data

Nickwid

2:16

What do you think would be a good plan for the yankees to address their 2b/3b issue?

Ben Clemens

2:16

sign Alex Bregman

Ross

2:17

Such a frustrating offseason for the Mariners. Do you see any realistic path to build a division winner with reportedly only around $11 million left to spend?

Ben Clemens

2:17

mmmm.... no

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