JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/30/23

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Wireless Joe Jackson

2:46

How does one watch the WBC?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Looks like it's gonna be on various Fox networks, so FS1, Fox, FS2 (didn't know this existed), etc.

Chip

2:46

Do you think Josh Donaldson makes it through Spring Training on the Yankees? As bad as IKF was at SS his previous defense at 3rd would at least equal JD's, and his hitting can't be THAT much worse.

Ben Clemens

2:47

I think IKF's hitting is a ton worse than Donaldson's

I think he'd be a better defender for sure

Really, though, I think he should be a utility infielder, the role just makes too much sense

2:48

He just doesn't hit enough to be an everyday third baseman

Franimal

2:48

Do you think Franmil will get a spring training invite soon?

Ben Clemens

2:48

I do, though I've been wrong about this repeatedly this offseason, I'd have said yes each of the past four weeks if you asked me this question

Stros

2:48

Houston seems pretty confident Brantley can come back and keep on hitting. Anything you've heard about his injury issues that makes you think he'll get 400+ ABs?

Ben Clemens

2:48

Haven't heard a thing

That said, I find it quite reasonable to believe that he'll continue to hit when healthy

Brooklyngail

2:48

Feels like the Braves and Fried will part ways after ‘24, yes?

Ben Clemens

2:49

Definitely feeling that way to me

They've gone to arbitration twice in a row, that's not a great sign for team and player being on the same page

Chip

2:49

"He just doesn't hit enough to be an everyday third baseman" *Looks at Donaldson disapprovingly*

Ben Clemens

2:49

IKF's career batting line is worse than Donaldson's worst single-season line

2:50

In wRC+, IKF's BEST single-season line is worse than Donaldson's worst single-season line

or at least, excluding two partial up-and-down seasons at the start of Donaldson's career

2:51

like, I wouldn't really want to have either of them as my starting third baseman

Mr Met

2:51

What tips do you have for evaluating young pitchers that goes beyond prospect evaluator lists (though I trust Eric as a gospel). Given the sky-high injury rate among youngsters, I know it's an imperfect science. But what other indicators beyond velocity could be worth monitoring. For instance, when does K-BB% become predictive?

Ben Clemens

2:51

I'm not going to lie to you, I don't feel nearly as good about my prospect evaluation of pitchers as I do about hitters

2:52

I think a key thing that teams have hammered home in recent years is that fastball shape and command are really important, and that a lot of teams seem to believe (rightly so) that they can teach velocity

I was having a really hard time finding stable predictive things for pitchers, which is why I've done less work there

A Boy Named Yu

2:52

IKF is just miscast as anything but a utility guy. It's not his fault he jumped at the chance to be a starter. That's on the Yankees, not him.

Ben Clemens

2:52

Yeah, this is how I feel. As a utility guy, he's great!

2:53

I'd be very happy to have him on my team as someone who can handle all three tough infield positions, can at least threaten to catch so that you can pinch hit more liberally with your catcher spot, and is a great situational pinch hitter when you need contact

Dan

2:53

From last week: AAA team plus five degroms. I started with the 2018 Mets replaced 2/3 of their innings with a pitcher that let up 1.7 runs per nine and 1/3 5 runs per nine. I think these assumptions (worse defense, more rested bullpen) are optimistic but not impossibly so. I replaced their offense with one that averages 5 runs per game, slightly worse than the worst real ream that year. These assumptions added about 120 runs making them a clear playoff contender. But also the real degrom went 11-10 that year supported by a team notably better than an AAA team.

Ben Clemens

2:54

5 runs per game!

that's bad?

that sounds good

If that was supposed to be 4 runs, that makes more sense to me

Peetchers

2:55

Which of these young pitchers are you most excited about for this year? Lodolo, Greene, Brown, Kirby, Bradish, Bello, other?

Ben Clemens

2:55

I think it's Kirby, but I'm excited to see all of these guys pitch