JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/31/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/31/22

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171

2:09

Estimate how much lower the O's staff ERA will be this year with Adley behind the plate than it has in the past. Gotta imagine it'll be at least like 0.50 right? The confidence of pitchers throwing a ball in the dirt to Adley compared to Pedro Severino has to be huge.

Ben Clemens

2:10

That's too much, haha. That'd be 55 runs of defense better than Severino over 1000 innings

2:11

I do think it will be lower, but let's put it this way: the number of catchers to grade out that much better than Severino in 2021 was 0

in 2020? 0

in 2019? 0

zjgifford

2:11

Just read your sinker/4seam article. On Gray and Castillo reverse tendencies (more sink to fly ball hitters), did you give any thought to the fact they play in GABP? Home/road splits for those two would be interesting

Ben Clemens

2:11

Could matter, but that should show up in their overall tendencies too

It's not like throwing four-seamers to groundball hitters gets better at GABP

2:12

so their sinker rates should just be jacked across the board at home, not selectively

JV

2:12

Who is JV?

Ben Clemens

2:12

presumably Justin Verlander

trout

2:12

What's the probability that Correa will go to NYY?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Call it 50%

But I don't really know

Krusty

2:12

Random leverage stat questions: would RE24 be more popular if it were marketed as basically "advanced RBI"? Any chance WPA ever goes mainstream like WAR?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Probably? Equalized RBI or something?

I do not think WPA will go mainstream like WAR, though

And rightly so

2:13

It's answering a more niche question than WAR, and the reason WAR has caught on so broadly is that it's just an instantly understandable concept

WPA less so

Dank Meme

2:13

What sort of pitcher is Means this year? He looked great in the first half, but was very hittable after he returned from the IL. Is he just a mid-rotation guy who pitched over his head for a couple months?

Ben Clemens

2:13

Really good question and I've been wondering this.

I still think means is more of a #2 than a mid-rotation guy

2:14

I wrote about him as a trade target earlier this offseason

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/john-means-potential-trade-target/

To be clear: #2 upside

not right now

Jfast

2:14

Is Kyle Tucker an MVP candidate in 2022?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Yes

2:15

I don't think he's a front-runner or anything

But I think whichever of the trio of best Astros hitters (for me that's Bregman/Yordan/Tucker) has the best year is an MVP candidate

JC

2:15

What kind of contract would Trea Turner get if he was an FA this off-season?

Ben Clemens

2:15

Bigger than Seager's, maybe bigger than what Correa eventually lands, but in that range

2:16

I'd prefer Correa to Turner but I'm kinda low on Turner relative to industry consensus

Jack B

2:16

Over/under 150.5 games played this regular season?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Over please

That's what my heart says, and also what my brain says

I think that a slightly delayed start of the season is in play for sure

2:17

But I don't think either side is interested in losing 12+ games

Joe

2:17

To rephrase a question from KG's chat earlier, if you cloned yourself 9 times and played a 162 game season against MLB teams, how many total runs would you score?

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