JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/31/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 1/31/22

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Ben Clemens

2:17

0-ish

I think I'd essentially need to walk in runs

But I'd never get deep into any bullpens b/c I wouldn't ever be threatening

thebeatlesshow

2:18

If the new CBA includes that bonus pool for non-arb eligible players, what's to stop the owners from low-balling their players who get bonus money?

Ben Clemens

2:18

Well, they already basically lowball those guys

non-arb-eligible players make the minimum

within a margin of error

and in fact, MLB's proposal would REQUIRE that those players make the minimum

2:19

removing teams' leeway to pay slightly more

but that 'slightly more' doesn't really happen as-is

Mike B

2:19

Out of this group does 1 guy jump out to you as a have to have for 2022 (Montas, Bassitt, Valdez, McCullers, Darvish) or are they all in the same bucket

Ben Clemens

2:20

I'd prefer Valdez and Darvish out of that group (assuming we're talking fantasy here)

I'm really not sure what to make of the A's guys because it matters where they get traded

171

2:20

Means + Rutschman + New LF wall = career year?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Oh yeah Means might be the player most impacted by the new wall, even without Adley

lefty fly ball pitcher?

sign me up for a fence that reduces righty HR/FB please

Mike B

2:21

Enrique Hernandez's projections across most of the fangraphs projection models have him as an above avg hitter, do you buy into these & his late career offensive surge or no?

Ben Clemens

2:22

I'd say I'm more Steamer than ZiPS (Steamer is the low model at a 105 wRC+)

but he's been a pretty okay hitter over the course of his career, and he seems to have rediscovered his batting eye in 2021

2:23

If you were looking at his hitting trajectory, the thing you'd be worried about is that the downward trend in walks was due to his increased chase rate and unfixable

that reversed in '21, and he's been an above average hitter overall

So why not continue to expect good hitting?

Jfast

2:23

Im a Bregman fan but his last two years are somewhat disheartening. What makes you bullish on him moving forward?

Ben Clemens

2:24

His history as an excellent player

No argument that his last two years have been bad, and injury-marred to boot

But uh, he's a career .281/.377/.507 hitter and only 27

I like that quite a bit

Jack B

2:25

How much of spring training do you think they would sacrifice to start the regular season on time?

Ben Clemens

2:25

I don't see spring training being shorter than the four-week kinda deal they did in 2020

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:25

Hi Ben! Have the Dodgers quietly out together the best LH bullpen in the majors? Vesia, Bruihl, Price, and Caleb Ferguson off an injury. Seems good. Thanks!

Ben Clemens

2:26

I thikn I'd give the edge to the Yankees (Chapman, Joely Rodriguez, Wandy Peralta)

b/c I like Joely and well, Chapman will probably rebound

Even without Britton, that's a nice group

2:27

but yeah, Vesia and Bruihl are real relievers for sure

JC

2:27

Why are you low on Turner?

Ben Clemens

2:28

I can't put my finger on it, but something about the shape of his production just makes me think it won't last

2:29

Is it impossible to keep running high BABIPs and great ISO's and not walking that much just b/c he's that good at baseball?

definitely

If I were a team looking to spend money on him I would be doing far deeper of a dive than that

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