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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/15/21

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Ben Clemens

3:11

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-an-opt-out-worth/

David (formerly Sonoma State University)

3:11

"it's not as though the Tigers knew the exact chance of reaching an agreement before making this deal. E Rod certainly didn't" Fair point, but they probably have a better idea than you or I do, right? (No snark).

Ben Clemens

3:11

Oh for sure

But still probably not a very good idea

Mike

3:11

R/e opt out good for teams. I feel like in some situations a player playing well and then leaving isn't a bad outcome. I would love to have the next 2 years of Javy Baez, but not some much years 3-6. Best case scenario for me is that he plays well and then opts out

Ben Clemens

3:11

Best case is that he turns into an MVP candidate for all six years

3:12

You're giving that up with an opt out

Cube Jockey

3:12

Are the Cards more likely to sign a front line starter, of the SSs, or neither?

Ben Clemens

3:12

Front line starter, but I don't hate neither as an option

I just don't see a shortstop for them, it's not how they operate

Pat

3:12

What are the risks of signing before the new CBA?

Ben Clemens

3:12

So, for players, it's signing before a CBA that makes whatever type of player you are more valuable

3:13

Let's say you sign with a QO, and the CBA does away with QO's including this year's

Then you took less money than you would have received without the offer

3:14

Or let's say that there ends up being some type of salary floor that incentivizes a little more spending. Being a bulk free agent type might gain a bit of value then, though I think this is unlikely

On the team side, the teams are actively trying to lower the CBT threshold in their offers to the union

I hvae no idea why the union would agree to this, but maybe there are enough other concessions elsewhere to make it work?

Giant Gonzales

3:15

So as far as pre-deal vs post-deal nobody knows what will happen but the main focus seems to be on younger players, arbitration, and when they hit FA. As an older vet like Verlander or Scherzer whom wouldn't be affected at all, would you think that they would want to sign sooner than wait until after the new deal goes into effect?

Ben Clemens

3:15

Right, guys whose value is unlikely to be affected will probably be willing to sign, but it's not like there's a huge disadvantage to waiting for them

Players like that haven't been signing in November very often anyway

Chris

3:16

The reports that Correa to the tigers is done in your opinion is A) not true at all at this point B) it's to early but yeah they are probably a ways down the road C) done deal and will happen soon

Paws

3:16

What do you make of the report this morning that a Correa contract is a "done deal" to Detroit?

Ben Clemens

3:16

I'm probably somewhere between A and B

There's probably some smoke there, but I don't think it's an actually done deal

3:17

And I think that suitors for Correa probably know he's meeting with the Tigers, so maybe this is just a public negotiation way of incentivizing people to get to making their real offers rather than dawdling for a month

Wicho

3:17

What does a salary floor in the new CBA do for the Padres' efforts to move Hosmer? Would a team like the Pirates be open to taking him on to meet the floor?

Ben Clemens

3:17

If there's actually a salary floor, Hosmer would instantly become a trade chip for sure

3:18

I don't think that overall salary would go *up* with a floor, I just think that teams would move existing contracts around to make it work

3:19

So trading guys like Hosmer, Elvis Andrus, the last year of Justin Upton's deal, etc

Would gain value

Paul

3:19

Syndergaard still hasn't officially accepted the QO. If he rejects it, what could be possibly be looking at this winter?

Ben Clemens

3:19

I'm really not sure. Like, maybe a one-year deal to help him regain value? I really think he's just going to take the QO

Joe

3:19

Why would teams want to take on bad players to meet the floor when they could sign better ones?

Ben Clemens

3:19

Because they can get prospects too

And a lot of those teams aren't even trying to win

3:20

If the Pirates need to spend $40 million, they could get some veterans and still be bad

Or they could take on Hosmer's deal and get a prospect in return

I tihnk they'd be very likely to do the latter

3:21

I'm with you that in an ideal world they wouldn't, but rebuilding small market teams have showed essentially no desire to try to improve the major league product they put on the field

I don't know why a salary floor would change that

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