JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/15/21

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rob

3:21

Who sticks at third longer, Bohm or Riley?

Ben Clemens

3:21

Riley

I think Riley is totally fine there

verging on a plus

3:22

Whereas Bohm is only there because Hoskins is blocking first

Giant Gonzales

3:22

sorry, didn't mean to type "impending shut down" twice in one sentence but was eating a sandwich. Tuna + jalapenos is still the best

Ben Clemens

3:22

I'm never angry at someone for eating a sandwich

HornsUp

3:22

Feinsand and Anderson both have the Cubs serious on Corey Seager. Driving up the price, or genuine?

Ben Clemens

3:23

I think it just depends on what 'serious' means

If they said 'Hey Corey, we're thinking 10/200, maybe 10/220' is that serious?

If they told a beat reporter "We want to sign Corey Seager, he's a great baseball player" is that serious?

3:24

I tend to not dwell on free agency rumors too much this time of year

There will be plenty of actual signings to ponder, adding to the noise by wondering what a team's public posturing means is just stress without payoff

Giant Gonzales

3:24

First off, thank you for answering my questions and I hope you've had a chance to check out Great British Menu at this point. Secondly, I hate being that guy that only asks questions about "my team" but I am that guy. Devers longterm, as an org do A) sign him to an extension now or B) wait until next year when Martinez is gone, move him to DH and then extend him as a DH and hope his AAV is less. Casas is the top farmhand at 1B and Dalbec could potentially fill in at 3B

Ben Clemens

3:25

Soon! I was traveling last week so haven't watched much TV

I think I'd sign him to an extension if the CBA is amenable to that, unless they think it makes more sense to sign Bogaerts to an extension and they want to move him to third

I do think that long-term, there's only room for one of those two -- long term being over the next 6-8 years

3:27

It's awkward thinking about where he fits long term because I think he'd be fine at first, but that means Casas would need to play somewhere else

The DH idea isn't terrible either, though

He hits enough to make that work

I don't think waiting for Martinez to move, then DH'ing him for a year, THEN signing him to an extension is a money-saving move

3:28

That would be going into the 2024 season by then, at which point he'd be a year away from free agency. Teams get a bargain by giving players certainty when they're multiple years away from cashing in, not usually in that last year

Dave

3:28

It looks like pre-12/1 free agency will be a lot more active than previously expected, no?

Ben Clemens

3:28

Yes indeed. Just Rodriguez signing is more activity among the top 15 free agents than I expected

3:29

I'm not sure what that means for other signings, but it's certainly surprising

HornsUp

3:29

Maybe a better way to phrase the Cubs-Seager question is, would a team that's in the bottom 7 in projected WAR and only has one top prospect on the cusp actually sign a 300 million contract?

Ben Clemens

3:30

I mean, likely not. But on the other hand, they're signing a guy who will be there for many years, they should probably be running a big budget given their revenues, and their payroll for 2022 is a miniscule 82 million as it stands

3:31

I think teams like that who expect to run big budgets in the future (and the Cubs are absolutely that, they have a good TV deal on their own RSN and make a ton of money overall) can afford to sign free agents with an eye on the long term

What do I expect? I expect them to cheap out, pocket a ton of money for ownership for a few years while they rebuild, and say 'eh we werne't competing anyway, why throw money away for the sake of spending?'

3:32

But I've been wrong before on this, and it's not a terrible time to get a shortstop if you want one. The market won't have this many great young shortstops available again any time soon

Nate

3:32

As an Astros fan...I'm I overly optimistic to think we could get Jon Gray to pull something close to what Cole and Verlander did if we could land him? I keep thinking I wish we'd make an aggressive bid with that in mind and potentially land an under the radar ace

Bort

3:32

Is Jon Gray the next starter off the board?

Ben Clemens

3:32

I'm not very high on Jon Gray, but I don't have incredibly high certainty about that or anything

3:33

I just think that people are assuming a huge improvement for him

3:34

Like, he's been a perfectly serviceable pitcher, but a little bit on the downswing compared to what he looked like early in his career.

A lot of pundits seem to be high on him going into free agency, but I think you'd have to expect a bit of improvement to give him the kind of deals I've seen projected

3:35

I like the idea of him as a mid-rotation starter, I just think that many people expect him to improve massively upon leaving the Rockies, and I'm not sold on that idea

Ben

3:35

I know the catcher market is really weak this offseason, but who is the #2 free agent catcher after Yan Gomes? Is it Roberto Perez? Manny Pina?

Ben Clemens

3:35

I think it's Perez

A different team might have picked up Perez's option this offseason

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