JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/15/21

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Ben Clemens

3:35

(one year, seven million)

3:36

Cleveland's current 2022 payroll is $50 million. Their final 2021 payroll was $51 million

They don't spend like a major league team, so they can't pay $7 million for a time-share catcher

3:37

Their opening day payroll in 2007 was $61 million! What are we doing here?

anyway I'm getting sidetracked

I think Perez would be a nice backup catcher, or potentially a time share

barney gumble

3:37

I hate asking this, but what does a trade package for matt olson look like?

Ben Clemens

3:38

I brainstormed this with Eric last week on FanGraphs audio

We were thinking some kind of big league contributor at first base, because the A's love making those style of trades where they get a like-for-like replacement right away

3:39

So that contributor plus a top 100 prospect

But towards the bottom of the top 100, not a 60 FV guy or anything

brad penny for your thoughts

3:39

is it weird that mlb wants to use fangraphs in determining player pay?

Ben Clemens

3:40

Eh, a little weird, though I'll point out that in the exact text it said they were using FanGraphs WAR "for purposes of illustration"

But generally speaking, I'm sure teams would love to get to a model where they can predict what someone will get in arb, so that if they don't value it at that much they can just non-tender them

3:41

The league would just love a fixed-payout model in general, I think

Ben

3:41

Is it just me or is it weird that Greinke had a monster 2019, threw over 230 innings in 2020-2021 as a better than average pitcher, and people are acting like he is washed up, while Verlander had a monster 2019, pitched in 1 game in 2020-2021, is older than Greinke, and people think he will turn down the qualifying offer!

Ben Clemens

3:41

Eh, he looked washed up!

3:42

He basically lost his spot in a thin Houston rotation

3:43

I think he makes sense for several teams to sign, and I'm pretty high on him as a value free agency acquisition

But I don't think it's weird to worry about the guy who struck out 17.2% of the batters he faced in 2021

That is, uh, scary low

Joon

3:43

If Guardians would not spend more, will Jose Ramirez be traded?

Ben Clemens

3:43

I haven't heard a ton of smoke there, which doesn't mean they're not gonna do it

But if they're trading Jose Ramirez, what's the point of having a team

3:44

Like, are they trying to win games now? Later?

3:45

They're not gonna get contracted, obviously, but I feel like baseball would maybe step in and say 'guys you can't do this' if they start trying to run a $30 million payroll or something

That might be a lower payroll than the revenue sharing payments they receive, and that is definitely going to draw the ire of the PA

Bob Caruthers

3:46

Thanks for chatting, Ben! Clerical matter: are there 2021 exit velocities or spray charts for minor leaguers, here at Fangraphs? Or anywhere that you know of? Thanks again, Ben.

Ben Clemens

3:46

The original two way god himself!

As far as I know, you can't find those publicly anywhere

3:47

We source them here and there, but more ad hoc, and teams have all the data, but it's not published by the league anywhere that I know of

Ben

3:47

Do you think not having the 9th inning was a main reason for Kimbrel's struggles with the Sox last year and do you expect them to trade him to a team where he can close in 2022?

Ben Clemens

3:47

Main reason? No

But I do think it might have contributed to it somewhat

I do think they'll trade him, and given his pedigree, likely the acquiring team will try him out at closer

3:48

So things will probably work themselves out. But if he 'only felt comfortable pitching the ninth', that's on the White Sox staff for not making that work somehow

I'm always complimenting the Rays, so let me do it again: the way they get their pitchers comfortable with coming in when the team can best use them is really impressive

Derek

3:49

I just want to once again put it out there that all Dolans should be banned from owning things.

Ben Clemens

3:49

Concur

Joon

3:49

Do you think either Correa or Seager will have over $300m contract?

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