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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/27/23

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mac

2:52

the yankees' hitting dev question is because all of their hitting prospects have been busts for half a decade. volpe, peraza, cabrera, pereira, florial, even going back to frazier have all failed miserably at MLB level despite modest to major hype and minor league success. at what point is that no longer bad luck and instead indicative of a horrible system?

Ben Clemens

2:52

a longer time frame than this, imo

Cooooors Lightyeat

2:53

Is Trevor Story cooked

Ben Clemens

2:53

We're gonna find out in 2024

I think he gets a pass for '23 because basically playing his way back to major league readiness in season is tough

2:54

he only had 48 minor league pa of rehab assignments after missing a full year

you obviously have to revise your estimates down, though, and mine were already low, so I'll say yes, but with the acknowledgement that it's certainly not a settled question

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:55

Following up on Vargas/Busch - where are the 1000 ABs coming from? Everything except LF is blocked, and there's a big time DH down the 5 freeway that's being targeted...

Ben Clemens

2:55

I still think it's more likely than not that Ohtani signs elsewhere

but injuries, LF, 2b when Mookie plays the outfield, DH, 3b if/when Muncy misses time, that kinda thing

2:56

I'd revise that estimate down if they landed Ohtani

Econ Student

2:56

Hey Ben! I am currently writing a research paper on the determinants of a player's salary using coefficients such as player's age, war, etc. Would you be able point me in the direction of an article here that may be benefitial?

Ben Clemens

2:56

hmmmm

there's this:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-per-war-in-free-agen...

and here's an older version that uses some good methodology that I think I lifted in part for mine

https://tht.fangraphs.com/methodology-and-calculations-of-dollars-per-...

Mitchell

2:56

Jay Jaffe’s recent piece on Lou Piniella’s HOF case reminded me that when Lou wanted to go home to close his career the Mariners received Randy Winn from TB as compensation, who proved a real steal. How many GMs do you suppose would trade their manager today for 2-3 years of a 3-4 WAR player? Conversely, how many teams would trade 2-3 years of a 3-4 player for a manager today?

Ben Clemens

2:57

I don't think any teams would trade Randy Winn for a manager today

KC Pain

2:57

Why do teams kick tires on guys like Dejong and not Hiura AAA type and hope for a JD, Duvall, etc. type breakout? (diff positions all around I know) Feels weird w Jon Singleton getting chances at 30+ and Hiura is 25-26(?).

Ben Clemens

2:58

Teams love these kinds of deals, I think that he'll end up somewhere

I mean the DeJong thing is just bizarre

I think it's fair to assume he's cooked

2:59

I think Hiura is likely cooked, too, and he can't really handle the middle infield, but why not find out?

2:59

Do you think Kim Ng is going to take a year off and see if there's any GM vacancies next offseason, or is she likely to slot into a team's existing front office structure?

Ben Clemens

2:59

yeah I think she'll likely take a year off

when you've been GM, it's probably very difficult to take what amounts to a demotion

KC Pain

3:00

Do you think Seager's contract will be like Scherzer's in Washington? OMG SO MUCH $$$ then the guy lives up to it?

Ben Clemens

3:00

Trending that way for sure!

3:01

I think from the Ragners' perspective, he's already lived up to it

on that note, I'm gonna call it a day

thanks for all the great questions, everyone

Odds are low that I'm gonna be chatting next week, because I'll be at the winter meetings, but I'm going to start getting back to a more regular schedule now that I am not constantly traveling to weddings or covering playoff games

have a wonderful week

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