JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/28/22

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Ben Clemens

2:03

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

2:06

Since it's a slow news week so far, and was slow last week, and I'm still recovering from a wonderful trip to Mexico City, I'm going to take it slow on the chat today. There should be some fun topics to cover, though

2:06

You're the new Astros GM (after all, there's a vacancy) and can sign any one free agent not named Aaron Judge. Who do you sign?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I think I'd probably sign Rodon. He just feels like a good fit for their window (endless) and pitching preference (powerful)

Chris

2:07

Is Jerry dipoto going to wait till the winter meetings before he cooks something up?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I sure hope so. I really love writing about trades at the winter meetings and DiPoto is our best chance for it

2:09

There will surely be SOME trades, don't get me wrong

But the DiPoto ones are always really fun

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:09

Are you surprised that the final Clevinger deal is 1/$12 mil? Seems a little over the estimates, but the white sox are probably desperate for innings.

Ben Clemens

2:10

I'm definitely a bit surprised, but I think it supports one of the two theories I had about offseason deals

Namely, that everyone's market is just a little stronger than I thought

2:11

Most of the deals that have gone through so far are above both my and the crowd's estimates. It seems to me that teams are just spending a bit more in free agency this offseason

Dancing dan mcgraw

2:11

How about using IKF behind the plate as a way to get a bit more value out of him?

Ben Clemens

2:12

I don't really get how this would add value. He was always miscast as a catcher -- he'd tell you that. It's nice to have him on a roster as an emergency catcher, I guess, but he wasn't a great defensive catcher, and he's not a great hitter

2:13

He's better as a utility infielder, and I do think it's cool that he lets you carry a bat-first catcher who you can DH/PH with and not worry about the whole 'my guy gets injured and now i need an emergency catcher' issue

Hey, he's a good fit with Gary Sanchez!

Colin Robinson

2:13

Hey Pirates fans! I'll be guest GMing your team through the end of the year. Hope you liked my latest signing of Carlos Santana. Not, I should note, the American guitarist who rose to fame in the late 1960s and early 1970s with his band Santana, but rather the fifth-best hitter for last year's Kansas City Royals, depending on how you count qualifying plate appearances...

Ben Clemens

2:13

Delightful

Chris

2:14

Is there anything to the idea that a lineup should have a balance between sluggers and OBP-driven hitters? Or should teams just try to get whoever is the best available regardless of the source of their production?

Ben Clemens

2:14

There is not anything to it

In fact, you should go the other way

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/choose-your-own-lineup-adventure-on-base-v...

OBP is OBP's best friend, which makes sense

Sean L.

2:14

I see stories from local media about the Cardinals interest in Trea Turner quite a bit. It seems pretty clear from the past signings of the St. Louis front office that they will not be signing any big name free agents, and especially not to long term deals. For example, Dexter Fowler and Mike Leake have been some of their "big" signings. Do you see them changing their approach? Or will they address the roster issues through trades?

Ben Clemens

2:15

Yeah, I don't think they're likely to be in on Turner given their general operating plan. They clearly like the exclusive negotiating window with stars and would prefer that to getting into open-market bidding wars. I'm not sure it gets them better deals on net, but they seem quite comfortable with it in any case

It also doesn't fit in that I think upgrading at pitcher would pay more dividends for them. They have plenty of infielders they're trying to juggle as it is

mikeschach

2:16

Given what Diaz cost the Mets, what could Hendriks bring the WhiteSox in a trade? A starting second baseman? A decent outfielder?

Ben Clemens

2:16

For some definitions of 'starting', sure

2:18

I mean, maybe Brandon Lowe is available somehow? I don't think Hendriks would be enough but maybe he'd be part of the deal. If I were the Sox, though, I think I'd hang on to Hendriks, who is a true difference-making closer

I think that the market in trade for those guys is a lot better at mid-season, anyway, when the team trading for them knows it's in contention

Dan

2:19

The Bryce Harper article said his injury would be season ending without a universal DH but wouldn't his bat make him well above replacement level even if he had to toss the ball left handed to the center fielder when ever he fielded it?

Ben Clemens

2:20

The Cardinals tried this once with Randal Grichuk. It was really embarrassing for everyone involved, Grichuk and the other outfielders included. I do not think that a no-arm Harper would play the outfield. I also think turning every baserunner into Trea Turner (probably the easiest analog for this) on any ball hit to right would be a pretty big hit

Sounds like it might be fun to look into, really

comish4lif

2:20

If MLB tried to institute winter signing and non-signing periods, how would that work?

Ben Clemens

2:20

I think it'd be something like 'no deals between the winter meetings and new years'

2:21

The NBA has an enforced dark period after the Finals, and I think it is a good guideline. There, deals basically get done quietly and then all announced as soon as the moratorium is over

baseballenjoyer

2:21

Astros GM by committee says, "Sorry Ben, we're going Abreu." Good signing imo.

Ben Clemens

2:21

Yeah, I haven't seen the final terms yet but I'll be writing up this deal

2:22

I like it! I also like Jose Abreu a lot. The Astros replace their Cuban-legend 1B with a Cuban-legend 1B with a cooler goatee

Chip

2:22

I'm seeing a lot of headlines (including at FG) about how Guy X will see improvements with the shift ban this year. But prior to the ban the talk was that shifting was not that helpful for defenses and therefore individual batters shouldn't see a huge spike in production when it is banned. Is this just "Sam Hilliard to the Braves is not news unless we find an angle" or do analysts/teams think there will be significant production value found post-shift ban?

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