JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/28/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/28/22

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Ben Clemens

2:23

For my part, I'd think it's more of an angle to write about than anything else. That said, I haven't really dug into it too much - my general assumption mirrors yours. It's also the case that it'll affect some hitters more than others, though. I think Santana was among those most affected thanks to his lefty profile

Judge career

2:23

...if Judge puts up four more seasons like his worst full seasons, he probably makes the HOF. That's pretty absurd considering the late start, but it's a huge if. That said, pretty sure he's surmounted "huge ifs" before.

Ben Clemens

2:23

I think you mean 'huge OF'

He's a huge outfielder

(yeah it's crazy. I think he's on a HoF trajectory now, it makes me very happy)

Rita

2:24

Has there been a faster start to this offseason than usual or does it just feel that way?

Derek

2:24

Why do you think the FA market has been so slow to develop this year?

Ben Clemens

2:24

My take: this is just the old-school November we're used to

Last year was ultra-fast and I kinda thought this year would speed up as a result, but it hasn'

giraffe

2:24

If you were the guardians GM, who would you look to acquire in trade? /Would you consider Sean Murphy? It looks like there's a glut of every day prospects w/o space to promote them.

Ben Clemens

2:26

This is an endless issue with the Guardians. They accumulate prospects by trading for quantity when they deal people, then have 40-man crunches. If I were them, I would be very interested in Murphy, and I actually think it's a great fit b/c the A's also love to acquire bulk when they trade for prospects. I am skeptical that the Guardians will do it, though. Their m.o. is to try to get more players than they trade back in almost every deal, and they are pretty smart, so they have some method behind their process

Marshall

2:26

Thanks for your Kung Pao Garbanzo recommendation last week. I think you should make a vegetarian recipe rec every chat. Anything for us today?

Ben Clemens

2:26

I'm glad you liked it!

I'll give you one that we make a lot of the time, courtesy of a food blogger my wife really likes

https://www.danpelosi.com/post/favorite-fall-salad

2:27

Butternut squash is one of my favorite fall veggies, and really one of my favorite veggies overall. The sauce used on this (garlicky citrus dressing) is also a personal favorite of mine, and I've stolen the sauce recipe and put it on disparate food plenty of times

Johnny5Alive

2:27

I think last year was fast because they were all worried about a lockout and people wanted to get signed up. Without that threat this year, its a much more normal off-season pace, no?

Ben Clemens

2:27

That's my take, I just thought that teams and players both might have enjoyed the mid-November certainty

Makes buying a house less stressful, for example, if you're a player

Maybe it'll just shift to December now

Dan

2:28

If I added up all the WAR from the team depth charts now and again at the start of the season would it be the same because it's always benchmarked to the same number or higher because a lot of talent is not currently on any roster?

Ben Clemens

2:28

Higher, because of the talent reason

We don't do any forced benchmarking beyond what the projection systems do themselves

They consider the entire universe of players, inclusive of free agents

2:29

so if you look here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

You'll see that 'free agents' are projected for 187 WAR

The total amount projected across everything will go down as we square up PT, but the amount on teams should increase

Anj

2:30

If you had to speculate who the Orioles' biggest acquisition would be, either through FA or trade, who would you say?

McPontiff

2:30

Similar to the Redbirds, I don't expect big FA moves by the Orange n' Black Birds, but for months I've been eyeing the M's as a great need-for-need trade match. I like Pablo Lopez (and/or Cabrera) for a package of prospects. What other potential good fits do you see for replenishing the pitching staff?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I think they'd be a good fit for Rodon. I would have loved to see them sign Tyler Anderson, that's my favorite signing of the offseason so far. I think that Rodon is probably above their realistic price point, but this would be a great year to splurge on a player who can help you in the future.

2:32

I also wouldn't hate them signing, say, Cueto and Quintana

If they're not gonna go for a top ticket bat

Derek

2:32

Would baseball be better or worse if any given game had the potential to cause an international incident, a la the World Cup?

Ben Clemens

2:33

so.... if the WBC were like that, better

I think one of the best parts of the WC is that it's only once every four years

As I mentioned in passing, I was in Mexico City last week, and the dancing in the streets after Ochoa saved a penalty was straight up amazing

2:34

Luckily I was flying back to Tijuana when the Argentina-Mexico game happened so I didn't see the rending of garments after that one

Mark

2:34

Why're people not talking about Seattle and one of the big-time free agents more? They've got a lot of payroll space, an exciting young core, and seem willing to spend money the last two years.

Ben Clemens

2:34

I think it's largely just b/c there isn't that much baseball news going on at the moment

2:35

I still think they make good sense for that, and before news slowed down I was hearing a fair amount of chatter about whether Crawford could move to second

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