JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/21

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Ben Clemens

3:02

Time value of money, teams have debt so spending the money later is usually better, that kind of thing

Two, for the purposes of the CBT, the league calculates each year of the contract with the same value

So even if you went, say, 30/30/10/10

3:03

Each year would count $20 against the CBT threshold

So you can't actually get away with something by doing it. Now, maybe you could trade the guy in the future if things don't work out and he's now on a cheap deal?

But you could also get that effect by retaining money in the future

Gerald

3:03

What is the Mets payroll right now?

Ben Clemens

3:03

I think I saw 265, but maybe it was 256?

Something like that, the highest in the game by a big

3:04

big amount*

Johnny5Alive

3:04

Can the mets do anything about Cano's money. Like if he "retires" or does a Bonilla-type buyout with money deferred over long times, does the 20million count against the cap still?

Ben Clemens

3:04

Okay if he actually retires, they're off the hook

So that's unlikely to happen

If they do a buyout, I actually don't know the cap implications

Let's say they agree to an 'extension' that's 5 million a year for 4 years, replacing this year's deal

and then they cut him

I don't know if the league would let them spread the money out that way

Alby

3:05

If you ran the Phillies, would you rather spend on a SS or 3B? Seems like they need both in addition to a CF.

Ben Clemens

3:05

Shortstop, just because there's a higher likelihood that there's someone they think is for them is on the market

If they're super into Kris Bryant or Matt Chapman then nevermind?

3:06

But generally speaking I think short is a harder spot to fill for them (I kind of think Bryson Stott will end up at third)

Btw, saw Stott in Fall League and he looked powerful

His homer numbers haven't jumped off the page in the minors, but I kind of think he'll hit for more power than he has shown so far

Guest

3:06

Semien contract = Werth contract in DC?

Ben Clemens

3:06

Yeah, I like this comparison

3:07

If that's what the Rangers are doing, then fine

The Werth deal was not a great deal for Washington in dollars and cents, but it was a great deal from a standpoint of energizing the fanbase, letting players know it was a good free agent destination, and still being a useful member of the team when the contention years came

If Eric Hosmer weren't so bad, he'd fit this kind of contract too

3:08

It's just... he's replacement level, Werth had two 4+ WAR seasons in DC

Gerald

3:08

Should more teams/players look to structure a deal like the Buxton deal?

Ben Clemens

3:08

I think so

3:09

I don't exactly know how it works, Buxton is a REALLY unique player in terms of his fit for this deal

Where he's a hitter with pitcher-ish tendencies

3:10

In terms of very uncertain availability

But likely dominance when healthy

It's hard to structure deals exactly like that for more normally-shaped hitters, but I love the ideal of larger incentives for players who are kind of stuck between two future outcome projections

Bob Melvin

3:10

What would you do with Hosmer if you were the Padres?

Ben Clemens

3:10

Oof

3:11

I think I'd try to make him a platoon first baseman, and be willing to cut him if that didn't work out or if he wasn't into it? It's crazy because there's still a lot of money coming his way, but just from the sheer amount of smoke coming from the clubhouse there, it seems like they haven't really done a good job getting the team to buy in that the right thing to do involves less Hosmer playing time

3:12

That's euphemistic. What I mean to say is that the team seems to think that either a)playing Hosmer provides some value that public models don't capture

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