JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/21

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Ben Clemens

3:12

b)benching Hosmer creates some negative value that public models don't capture

I'm skeptical of both!

That said, I'm a public models guy

3:13

I'd axe him, say 'look no hard feelings you've got a pile of money either way' and move on with life

Joey Caltrain

3:13

How do you feel about MLB's proposal a little while back to base player salaries on Fangraphs' own WAR model? Does it change how you feel about working at this website?

Ben Clemens

3:13

I thought it was a flawed model, and am generally against the idea of determining salaries in an algorithmic way like that when teams retain the option to non-tender players. It makes for an asymmetric risk profile

3:14

The devil would be in the details, and given the way past arbitration systems have worked, I think it's unlikely to work out in players' favor

That said, doesn't change how I feel about working here at all. If there was a fair way to do it, I'd generally be in favor. I'm just skeptical of the concept

Appa Yip Yip

3:14

The sunk cost fallacy is so real you gotta keep digging that hole you've dug so far already

Imagine stopping digging wtf what a waste

laughing

1

Ben Clemens

3:15

Amazing

Imagine stopping digging

Nats Fan

3:15

Ben I’m sad

Ben Clemens

3:15

Just think of beating the Astros four times in their house in 2019

And Juan Soto shuffling aggressively

Thomas

3:15

I really liked your Buxton piece, and it does seem like maybe more deals should be structured like this. But then I thought about it some more, and isn't this sort of heavy-awards-based incentive system just the arbitration system, but outsourcing the arbiter's role to the BBWAA?

Ben Clemens

3:15

Yes and no, because teams can cut the guy if they get hurt in arb

3:16

I like the floor in Buxton's deal, and I like the fact that it's performance-based if he goes nuts but is at a reasonable level for both sides in other circumstances

The concept of getting money in exchange for playing well is good... I just think that the current arbitration system doesn't enact it very equitably for players

But yeah.... a system that had more incentive bonuses would look more like arb for sure

Guest

3:16

Is it true that all the FA's are signing before the lockout simply so they can afford tons of Christmas gifts for their families?

Ben Clemens

3:16

Totally true!

3:17

I saw Alex Wood at my local Costco going nuts in the gifts aisle

(I absolutely did not!)

5 Run Homer

3:18

Source: The Mariners are closing in on a deal with Robbie Ray.

the Mariners!

Ben Clemens

3:18

!!!

Now that is fun

They still need a third baseman, but yeah, I'm intoi this

3:19

Top end pitcher is perfect for them

I LOVE that I put 'Robbie Ray, perhaps?' in my shopping list for htem

Very results-oriented thinking, but yeah, that's me!

Porkchop

3:19

Is there any chance of a minimum team salary structure upcoming?

Ben Clemens

3:19

Never say never, but honestly no?

Appa Yip Yip

3:19

I would imagine a lot of dudes want to have a couple months to like. Get a place to live and a couch to sit on rather than scramble in February and march

Ben Clemens

3:19

I think this has a TON to do with it

I'm planning on writing about this when things cool down

like, how did I get this so wrong

3:20

And I think the combination of a bright line deadline when free agency so rarely has one

And then the uncertainty of when they'd be able to sign afterwards

Is very motivating

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