JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/7/22

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Ben Clemens

2:40

If he's willing to pawn it, sure

MoKo

2:40

From a fan perspective, Would you consider this year playoffs format a success? I certainly thought so, as I felt more drawn to the first round than the one game wild card

Ben Clemens

2:40

Huge success from a fan perspective, to be honest

I was skeptical but I think the 3-game format was great

And the whining about undeserving teams wasn't really any louder than in years past, as best as I can tell

2:41

There's all kinds of hand wringing about how much the playoffs should reward the regular season's best teams every year, mostly when the Dodgers/Astros/Yankees get eliminated

I say, meh, it's a tournament that is super fun to watch, let's come up witih a good structure for it. This year's structure created some exciting series, thumbs up

Phil Houseman

2:41

I'm not a fan of Danby Swanson, guys been a cumulative 95OPS+ for seven years, he strikes out way too much and his fWAR for next year is significantly lower than this year

Ben Clemens

2:41

I'm not a big Swanson believer, at least on offense

2:42

I do think he's a premium defender, and he's young and plays a position that allows him to slide down the defensive spectrum if necessary

I think he's a CLEAR cut below the rest of the top shortstops though

Insert Witty Name Here

2:42

All things considered, would you be okay rolling with a Sosa/Stott middle infield? Much better defensively and I think Stotts offense will be much improved after almost a full year of reps.

Ben Clemens

2:42

I would not be. Also, I'm not sure either of them is better than Segura defensively OR offensively

Just keep Segura

Dan

2:42

Do any of this years free agents wind up pitching a position change to sign with a team that doesn't need them at their established position?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Bogaerts may

maybe some of the aforementioned corner outfielders can fake third base, or play a good first base

Dan

2:43

Stanton used to be a good defensive outfielder. Now he mostly DHs to keep him healthy and his bat in the lineup more. Is it possible for his bat to regress enough that this is no longer advisable without him regressing enough in total that he's no longer worth strating when healthy either way?

Ben Clemens

2:44

It's possible, but I think the correlations argue against it

2:45

Basically, the way I look at it is that the injuries they're hoping to avoid also make him worse in the field. He did not look good in the field this year, and his sprint speed is WAY down

so having him get healthy enough for the outfield to make sense seems unlikely, but if it does happen the Yankees will surely want to keep him healthy

Pat

2:46

Wouldn't the best "tournament" end up like March Madness? Typically in MM, 1-2 brackets go close to chalk, 1 gets totally upside down with upsets..which is kinda what happened this year? AL went close to chalk with seeds 1-2 in the ALCS. NL was crazy..& in the end, a 1 seed won.

Ben Clemens

2:46

I'd agree

Particularly with what you're saying about the vibe of March Madness, for lack of a better word

Oddball Herrera

2:47

After a season in the books, what are your thoughts on the unorthodox Buxton contract? It seemed win-win going into the season, but it *does* feel like he wasn't around enough to hit the threshold of being worth keeping around vs. trading and letting someone else roll the dice

Ben Clemens

2:47

It seems to me that the contract roughly worked. He's not going to hit any incentives this year, but he still provided a lot of value to the Twins

2:48

They disappointed, for sure, but I don't think it was b/c of Buxton basically

Dan

2:48

If your slightly better than your opponent in a basketball game you will dribble past/shoot over them dozens of times per game. If your slightly better than your opponent you will average less than an extra hit per game. Basketball upsets are way different things than baseball upsets

Ben Clemens

2:49

Oh totally. Also the talent disparities are much smaller between MLB playoff teams than between NCAA tournament qualifiers. Also the series are longer. It's not apples to apples, but the vibe of 'some upsets, some chalk' is definitely what feels best to me

James

2:49

when you create these dollar estimates, what is the dollar value u use to project how much they will be worth per win?

Ben Clemens

2:50

Sigh, if only it were so easy. I create a few $-per-WAR curves based on past players' projections and awarded contracts

I do some broad fitting of league-wide $ committed vs. league-wide projected 2023 WAR

but then I have to assume some inflation, which is tricky, and some aging curves

2:51

It's honestly a ton of guesswork, and I think last year's went pretty well but I'm always on the lookout for ways to improve these

I'll do some checking in February when this all cools down and try to improve the process for next year

Judge is a .211 career postseason hitter

2:51

Do you see Rafael Montero and Robert Suarez landing contracts to close?

Ben Clemens

2:51

To close? Eh, maybe, depending on the team. Suarez in particular is a player I may end up regretting, he probably should have been on here in the back end of the list

2:52

Like, no one was gonna say 'hey where's Mike Clevinger on your list?'

Did you see Mike Clevinger pitch in October? You only had a few innings to do so!

Montero is a guy I've always been personally high on

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