JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/7/22

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:53

I wrote up the Graveman trade and said Montero would be better than Graveman within a year, nailed it. But I think teams will still be hesitant to make a big outlay for a guy who played his way off the Mariners only a year ago

Insert Witty Name Here

2:53

re: Stott, I’m a big fan of his watching him this year. How much could the eye test improve his projection over the statistically modeling? He had a horrible start to the year which makes the stats look bad. But from my semi-trained eye, I think he’s going to hit a lot better than what the projections will probably say.

Ben Clemens

2:54

Projections think he'll be an average hitter, it appears

One good thing about Steamer and ZiPS, and presumably a lot of projections these days, is that they make a good attempt to look at process rather than outcomes

2:55

and if there's signal in a player improving after a horrible start in general, that'll be incorporated in there

I will say, just generally, that Stott is the kind of player who looks better offensively than he is. Like, all postseason I kept hearing about how he was an incredible hitter. Announcers were drooling over his mature, professional at-bats, and saying he'd matured into getting big clutch hits and being a huge plus offensively

2:56

Maybe! He also hit .136/.255/.227 this postseason

Josh

2:56

Most likely to get and accept a QO is...?

Ben Clemens

2:57

Huh. Taillon I guess? It's someone in that range, a nice player but not one who's likely going to get 8 figures

Taijuan Walker maybe?

Oddball Herrera

2:57

Agreed, it's kind of a mixed bag in that both Buxton and the Twins got what they probably should have expected. Here's another way to put my question, and sorry if it's stupid - let's say you have Buxton who produces 4 wins in 350 randomly distributed ABs for $15 mil, and you have theoretical player A who will produce X wins, but over a full season's ABs. Would you accept a value of X < 4 over having Buxton? If so, how much less?

Ben Clemens

2:58

I personally would need X>4, because Buxton has the random spike healthy seasons (in theory)

Particularly given his contract shape. That said I'd just sign both players

4 wins for $15 million is a bargain

2:59

The argument about whether it's better to have a full season of solid production or meteoric performance for half a season plus injury replacement is very hard to answer

Judge prediction

2:59

Judge's 7 year WAR prediction is now 34 WAR. So... this season basically turned him into a projected HOF player (that would be high 60s with a, uh, pretty good peak). That's a pretty big season, to understate it greatly.

Ben Clemens

2:59

Yeah

It's the best non-Bonds season of my lifetime

And I'm not that young

Insert Witty Name Here

2:59

Re: re: Stott, he was a rookie playing in November. He was definitely fatigued which is why you didn’t see those good professional ABs I was watching in July.

Ben Clemens

2:59

Yeah, it really crushed Jeremy Pena

I mean, look, I like Stott

Ben Clemens

3:01

One last thought here: projections will still care a lot about Stott crushing in the minors in 2021, and they should. He's a good hitter. His 2022 major league season definitely decreases the odds that he's a transcendent hitter though

Ben Clemens

3:00

I also think projections do a pretty good job, and that when they're ex ante wrong, it's not generally on guys like him with a minor league track record who then played a full season in the majors

Dan

3:00

A few weeks ago FG did an article that included a chart of teams that over/under performed expectations in playoffs. I noticed teams that faced Mariano Rivera where on the bottom of the list and teams that had Mariano Rivera where on the top of the list.

Ben Clemens

3:00

Turns out he's good!

Myles

3:01

How well do you understand Westworld?

Ben Clemens

3:01

Not even a little bit

Mets fan

3:02

What do you think the Mets should do with Brett Baty? He is a work in progress defensively, but the bat probably isn't quite ready for him to be the everyday DH. Mets are in win now mode, do they trade him this offseason, send him back to AAA or let him develop at the major league level?

Ben Clemens

3:02

I think sending him back to AAA is the most likely outcome

Aaron R

3:02

Does Verlander stay? if so what does the contract look like beyond $ (duration, options).... If he goes, where to?

Ben Clemens

3:02

I think he'll stay. I projected him for 2/80, so I guess I'll stick with that

Dr. Bjron Masterson

3:02

My ex-wife is a huge Dan Vogelbach fan. Please tell me he will not be signing in Chicago

Ben Clemens

3:03

I hope he will sign with the Brewers again, because he's just such a fun talisman for the town of Milwaukee. I think that will almost certainly not happen, though

Brian

3:03

Is CLE going to do anything this offseason, or is the lack of money on the books, plus the ability to bring literally the whole band back going to be the plan?

Ben Clemens

3:03

I think they'll mostly just bring the band back

This is not a club that makes splashes in free agency

Dan

3:04

I don't think having a great closer is all by itself enough to move playoff expectations but maybe if you filtered by closer who were great for multiple years you'd find a statistically significant effect on payoff overoerformance.

Ben Clemens

3:04

Good way to say this. There are some tricky issues of selection bias, and this thing I've been meaning to write about for a long time "closer half life"

Like, how long are good relievers good for on average

Connecting…

Message History

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat