JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/12/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/12/22

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Ben Clemens

2:22

I think there's some confusion between an 'ace' and a number one starter that just carries down

To me, a number one starter is more like the top 20 guys or so. Then you have some borderlines, who I'd call good number 2's, let's call that 21-40. Then you've got your fringe-y #2s, excellent third starters, 41-60

2:23

Then it's just degrees from there

I don't think that's what everyone views it as, but that's how I see it

Chiefsnark

2:23

Would you care to discuss the Tigers-Braves trade? Here in Detroit the assessments have varied.

Ben Clemens

2:23

I wrote about it last week

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-braves-and-tigers-swap-production-for-...

Personally, I like the Tigers' side

Guest

2:24

Whither the trades? The FA market has been moving but no fun trades. Too many teams coming out of rebuilds so there are few clearly defined sellers?

Ben Clemens

2:24

It's easier to make trades when there aren't free agent signings going on

I expect that they'll pick up in January

Sad Red Sox Fan

2:24

Is there any reason to be optimistic about a Devers extension? With only one year until free agency and the contract values other players are getting right now... it feels like Devers will want to hit the market

Ben Clemens

2:25

I'm skeptical, just based on the way the Sox have handled recent extension talks

2:26

Sure, maybe they've just had their eyes on Devers the whole times and lowballed X and Mookie as a result

2:28

But that seems more like wishful thinking than anything else

crying

3

They just seem to be less interested than previous Red Sox regimes in signing long extensions to homegrown players

I hope I'm wrong, I like it when players stay with a team their whole career, it's just more fun

Guest

2:29

Word is the Cardinals offered Ryan Helsley for Danny Jansen and the Jays turned it down. Would you have accepted that trade?

Ben Clemens

2:29

as the Jays? Yeah

I find that trade really confusing, though

if it was before Contreras was signed, then mayyyyyybe? But even then it seems like a lot for Jansen

RTJ

2:30

What's your most controversial take on a FA move so far this offseason? A team that missed on a player or something else

Ben Clemens

2:31

I think that we'll look back on the Rangers signing deGrom and Heaney as the start of a new core for them

2:32

and that they'll be one of the big dogs in the AL for the next few years

Sabey Sabes

2:32

Feels like Boston is readying to go up for sale the way Henry spends and keeps buying into other leagues.

Ben Clemens

2:32

That wouldn't shock me

Dan

2:33

Mr. Derrick Goold reported the return the A's wanted from the Cards for Murphy: Nootbar, Donovan, & Graceffo. Do you make that trade as a Cards fan? And do you make that trade as an impartial analyst?

Ben Clemens

2:35

I think I'd turn it down as both, because as both an impartial analyst and a Cards fan, I'm really high on Nootbaar

That said, it's close! That's a very A's kind of ask, multiple interesting but not wildly high ceiling players

Eugene

2:37

Hoyer seems dead set against long deals. From a time value of money perspective, seems favorable to teams to spread the value out over more years. Also lowers annual luxury tax bill. What are reasons a team would prefer to pay the same total out over a shorter number of years? Worries that future owners wouldn't be willing to free up the 40 man spot from an old, overpaid vet? Something else?

Ben Clemens

2:38

Same total over a shorter number of years? there aren't many reasons

It's basically some kind of sunk cost fallacy

You might get extra production in those extra years!

2:39

I suppose there's some chance the guy you sign could be a jerk and just ruin the clubhouse, but then just cut him

2:40

Now, if you hvae to chip in some extra money, though at a lower AAV, to get those extra years, that changes things a bit I suppose

TheVoiceInYourHead

2:41

Stop working. You work too hard. Take a day off. It's baseball for chrissakes! Have a donut. Leave the house and get a breakfast burrito. Or two. Ask for extra salsa. Leave a one dollar tip. And drink some wine tonight. Definitely that. You deserve it.

Ben Clemens

2:41

This is pretty close to an accurate play-by-play

Alex

2:42

I don't think the Giants are cheap, it seems like they care so much about value that it keeps them from winning most high priced free agent chases. I think Farhan does not want to go 4+ years on any pitcher. No 7-10+ year contracts for hitters either (Judge was exception).

Ben Clemens

2:44

I'm really not sure about that, we'll see. I'm overall okay with what they've done so far, namely hunt the best free agents and not go too wild for marginal upgrades

I think the Haniger deal also suited them quite well, just team building wise

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