JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/16/24

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Dan'l

2:34

It makes no sense to keep Helsley, yes?

Ben Clemens

2:34

Not NO sense, but let me put it this way: I'd accept 90 cents on the dollar to trade him

2:35

it's not out of the question that they'd get a better return by waiting for the deadline, and that's interesting to me

but they seem serious enough about retooling that keeping a closer, and a dominant one, doesn't really track with what I'd be trying to do

SPArn

2:35

A real question - Are you a bigger believer in Herz, Parker, Irvin, or none of the above being a member of the next contending Nats rotation? 2026... please? I lean Herz b/c of the bat missing, even though it comes in a weird way (I think he throws one fastball at... 5 different velocities?)

Ben Clemens

2:36

oh man

I think it's Herz? It's him or Parker for me

Okra

2:36

I think the Rays will have huge amount of rain delays this year which will put an extra strain on all their pitchers (and likely make them underperform. Do you agree?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I don't know how exactly they're gonna handle it, but they manage to play FSL games without blowing people's arms out

I think they'll probably be able to figure it out, though I do agree that on the margin it won't be ideal

Telemachus

2:37

Do you think Milwaukee could have gotten a better package for Williams? A deal including a top 100 prospect and other pieces?

Ben Clemens

2:37

I do not

I think that the deal they got is RIGHT in line with what they need

they struggled mightily in the rotation last year and they just cannot afford to sign people given their budget constraints

they're trying to win every year

they seem to have a window right now, too: the Cardinals are taking a step back and the other teams haven't quite gotten things together yet

2:38

"oh this guy is a top 100 prospect" is probably not as appealing to them as a complementary and pretty good prospect (Durbin) plus a rotation starter for this year

Guest

2:38

I like the way you characterized the Devin Williams trade, with the Brewers rotating the wheel of effective pitchers. But at some point, if you just keep staying at the same level, you'll always get the same results. At some point, don't they have to go all-in (or at least be additive, rather than trying to maintain status quo)?

Ben Clemens

2:39

Philosophical question, really

Would you rather get a ton of so-so bites at the apple, or go more boom-bust?

I remember thinking, when the Stearns era started, that his plan of not really bottoming out and trying to compete right away was novel and fun

I think this might be a grass is always greener situation here. I'm a big fan of taking shots when you can, and I completely agree that the Brewers refuse to do that

2:40

but I definitely understand their perspective

they really want to be competitive and bring the fans out every year

SPArn

2:40

Thanks for all the fun in chat and on the website this year. Five things was my favorite read every week. Z Lowe would be proud

Ben Clemens

2:40

Thank you very much

2:41

5 things is very hard to write, just because the idea generation part of it takes a very long time and the giffing isn't automatic, but it's also my favorite thing to write, so it works out

SPArn

2:41

What are you looking forward to most, personally, in 2025?

Ben Clemens

2:42

I'm gonna limit this to baseball

2:43

because if not, it's my trip to Scandinavia that I'm planning

but: I'm excited to see what Ohtani does back on the mound

and I'm very excited to see a Chapman/Adames infield in person frequently

Danny G100

2:43

Any predictions for DeGrom this year? I keep seeing stuff like he's still a top 7 or 8 pitcher in baseball.

Ben Clemens

2:44

I think he'll still be the best pitcher in baseball on a rate basis

I truly have no idea how to handicap his health

I'm going to be very excited to watch, though

john darc

2:44

I was worried that would be your answer, that Bregman's "down years" are still better than anybody on the team not named Judge. I just worry they'll have to pay him like a superstar and it will prevent them from going after Tucker in free agency because "Oops, we spent all our money!" fake austerity nonsense.

Ben Clemens

2:44

yeah I mean, that's all well and good, but they cannot run the team back as is imo

Judge is great RIGHT NOW

give him some help

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