JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/16/24

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Henry Dodger

2:45

Do you think next off-season's free agent market might be cooler with the CBA being just one year from done, or is there no causation there?

Ben Clemens

2:45

I think it depends on how the internal conversations are going, and also very importantly on how the tv deal fallout is looking at that point

Right Field

2:45

Tucker put up a 180RC+ last year with good fielding and baserunning. His fluke shin injury aside, is he right up there with Soto as one of the best players at the moment?

Ben Clemens

2:45

well one way of looking at it is just projections. He has a 5.1 WAR projection over 672 PA. Soto is at 6.8 WAR in 686

2:46

Tucker's WAR projection is 15th in baseball, so that's definitely star level

And if you aren't as bullish on the various defensive value adjustments propping people up, you could dock Cal Raleigh, Michael Harris, and William Contreras out of that list and get him to 12th

2:47

but let's put it this way: in an abbreviated season, Tucker put up the best numbers of his career, by 30+ points of wRC+, and projection systems think that probably he's not suddenly that good on a go-forward basis

2:48

in a full season, Soto put up the best full season of his career (not as good as 2020 on a rate basis), but by meaningfully less

and our projection systems think he'll be not too far from the hitter he's been most of his career, though they seem to like his plate discipline-driven producdtion a little more on a go-forward basis

2:49

either way, both are great. But the fact that SOto has 4 seasons better than Tucker's best season, and is younger, probably means that Soto is better

Guest

2:49

With a last place finish, and one of the worst farm systems, should the Jays start a fire sale and try to get some value for their top assets?

Ben Clemens

2:50

If Vlad is not interested in an extension, then maybe

if he is: you don't get Vlads very often, maybe pay him and keep trying to win

Sir Nerdlington

2:50

how can the cubs ‘be going all in’ per the post-Tucker trade reporting and yet still treat the CBT like a salary cap? It’s like we’re rooting for the brewers except, ya know, without the division titles.

Ben Clemens

2:50

No, the Brewers are way better at maximizing their roster

2:51

but yeah, kinda wild imo

SPArn

2:51

Re: the what are they going to do, ask Tucker to DH/Happ to sit occasionally, comment - I guess Tucker being an upcoming FA is a wrinkle in what I'm about to say, but are we... overrating the human element there? Like, they're handsomely paid... the Cubs should probably be able to ask them EXACTLY that lol. I feel like we also just learned from the Reds that there's no such thing as too much depth/just let these things work themselves out because they likely will

Ben Clemens

2:51

okay so, you could always try that

one wrinkle is the budget element

and clearly the Reds weren't in love with their experiment b/c they went ahead and traded India as soon as they didn't have pressing injury issues

2:52

but the human element matters! also they're trying hard to re-sign Tucker and also presumably to find some contract extensions for young and good players

and they'd inevitably stunt PCA's growth by doing this

one place where the Reds differed is that it was pretty obvious who needed the most playing time (Elly, McLain)

and those guy shappened to be the young players

Danny G100

2:53

I think what I meant with the suzuki take was that Happ, PCA will keep their jobs with Bellinger being traded.

Ben Clemens

2:53

so if they trade Bellinger, I guess things get a little easier

but that's still one of Seiya, Happ, or Tucker DH'ing a ton

Bellinger to the Yankees, maybe?

Leric A Ongenhagen

2:54

holy cow Cubbies. If they land Luzardo, do you think they own the NLC? How would tank them against the entire NL if they have Luzardo?

Ben Clemens

2:54

Maybe I'm just a dummy, but landing Luzardo wouldn't move the needle much for me at all

2:55

I'm not a big MIchael Busch believer, and for whatever reason I can't talk myself into Hoerner even though I think the data disagrees with me

but I do think they're co-favorites in the NLC with the Brewers

David Stearns

2:56

Pete Alonso doesn’t have much of a market does he just return to the Mets on a Bellinger type deal?

Ben Clemens

2:56

Yeah, I think that's in the cards, although "doesn't have much of a market" is pretty theoretical at this point

Yukon Cornelius

2:56

Is Kerry Carpenter closer to a future star or full time platoon player?

Ben Clemens

2:56

i think he's closer to a future star

I don't think he *IS* one, necessarily

2:57

but if you hit that well against righties, I'm gonna let you bat against lefties too

DeeBo

2:57

Do you think free agent market "dollar per WAR" calculations miss the point? I get how there's a market average, but each team's own dollars/WAR tolerance would seem to depend on their budget + ability to develop (cheap) talent internally through the minors

Ben Clemens

2:57

100%

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