JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/2/24

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Ben Clemens

2:13

one year, $10 million, but paid in 10 $1 million installments over 10 years

2:14

the Dodgers don't have a monopoly on weird, deferred-y deals. but honestly, the deferred isn't helping them out THAT much, it's the fact that they're willing to spend to win

like they're still setting aside $46 million a year for Ohtani

drhotdog

2:15

do you think the Boyd and Montas signings make the Kikuchi deal look any better?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I do

I think that every pitching deal has comein above 'consensus' and it's entirely plossible that most deals do, now that the economic picture feels a little less unsettled than a year ago

2030s

2:15

Will the Dodgers be limited by all the deferred money they’ll be paying next decade? Or will the economic realities of baseball allow them to basically shrug it off?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I don't, because of the way the escrow works

2:16

they don't get to just not think about the money until the future, they're required to set an NPV'ed amount aside in the year it's earned

so they're setting aside a bunch of money right now. I'm not 100% sure what investments are allowed with that money, but they have to pony it up now, which means they're not going to suddenly need to pay out $100 million out of nowhere in 2030 or whatever

Kevin

2:17

it seems highly likely to me that due to declining media revenue offers to mid-range free agents are going to be fewer and smaller than players and agents have come to expect. What’s your view?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I thought that before the offeseason

that certainly was the case in the 2024 offseason

I suppose we'll see. but Frankie Montas and Matt Boyd feel very mid-range to me, and they both got good deals

David

2:18

Shouldn’t the price begin to drop for starting pitching? They’re throwing fewer innings and turning it over sooner to the bullpen.

Ben Clemens

2:18

The price per WAR hasn't changed much, so I suppose what you're saying is already happening

2:19

but it's tricky, because salary is as much about scarcity as value, and good starting pitching is scarce these days

David

2:19

Wouldn’t the Yankees be better off letting Soto walk and filling roster holes with other free agents so Judge can move over to a corner?

Ben Clemens

2:19

what free agents

2:20

like, they're gonna go sign Alex Bregman and Gleyber Torres?

I think that would probably cost more per year than Soto will

do you actually think that offense would be better than one with Soto and a prospect? I sure don't

2:21

why can't Judge move to a corner even with Soto in town anyway?

I'd be trying Dominguez out in center for sure

Joe

2:21

Which FanGraphs festive light colours are you using?

Ben Clemens

2:21

I'm liking the classic ones

the A's lights look kinda cool, but I just like regular christmas colors

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:21

There have been rumblings about the Phillies trying to get out from under the Nick Castellanos contract. Is there a damaged-goods trade that would line up for the Phillies and some other partner to move him out of town?

Adam

2:22

How do you see the Phillies “shaking up” their roster? I’ve heard Bohm tossed around as a trade piece, but other than him who could you see them moving?

Ben Clemens

2:22

I'm skeptical that the Phillies can make a Castellanos trade work, because most teams are valuing him at roughly 0

like, league average hitter with completely unplayable defense

2:23

so either they're going to eat most of the money, at which point why are we doing this trade in the first place, or they're going to send out a prospect with him, and that feels like it wouldn't happen given the way Philly has operated in recent years

Bohm makes sense to me as a trade piece if they're intent on shaking things up, but they could also just run things back. It was a pretty good team in 2024, you know?

Bencle Mens

2:24

Can an Arenado to the Phillies trade work?

Ben Clemens

2:25

I don' think the Cardinals would be interested in Bohm, because the whole point of moving on from Arenado would be to take a step back for the next few years. Mayyyyybe you could get the Castellanos contract out the door, plus a prospect or two, for Arenado, but that would just be window dressing (i.e. you can choose between the Cardinals covering $30 million of Arenado's deal and trading them Castellanos and the $40 million he's owed)

2:26

So I'd say it's not impossible but depends on finding value for Bohm elsewhere

Hunter

2:26

I've heard trade rumors for the Tigers (Arenado, Bohm), but is there any realistic trade that the Tigers could make that would make more sense than just signing Bregman or Christian Walker so they don't have to bat Matt Vierling 3rd anymore?

Ben Clemens

2:26

yeah I like Walker there quite a bit

Not so into Bregman, to be honest, I feel like his swing and Comerica wouldn't be friends

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