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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/2/24

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Buster

2:27

I want to do my best by the Giants, but I don’t have the Dodgers money and i don’t have their brain trust. Any way I can dislodge them from first in the next years?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I'm skeptical

I hope I'm wrong, SF is more fun when the Giants are good

2:28

we haven't really seen much of the Posey regime yet, I'll withhold judgment for a year or so until we see what their MO is, but the Giants have been pretty uninspired in recent years after whiffing on a few big free agents, and it feels tough to fix that quickly

New UK fan

2:28

How do the market dynamics vary between pitching (~everyone can use another pitcher, but there are many available) vs specific positions (maybe only a few teams need a catching upgrade but there are very few options available)

Ben Clemens

2:29

oh, good question. I think it makes for a first-one-in-wins mentality in the position player case, where there are meaningful differencdes in what someone will offer you based on when you sign and who's still looking. Pitcher salaries are a lot more static/fungible, because if the Mets don't sign you the Yankees might, or whatnot

2:30

that puts more pressure on the agents of the position players whose spots aren't guaranteed but are potentially mnore valuable. Whereas being an agent for a starter is probably a lot about calling every team and showing that your guy is healthy/working hard

Hungry guy

2:30

What's the best holiday dish?

Ben Clemens

2:30

stuffing

I actually don't think this is all that close

I like a lot of holiday dishes, but I crave stuffing

2:31

we made some this year and I devoured it in record time

it's pretty fun to make, also

Bencle Mens

2:31

Over/under Brewers' NL Central division wins in the next 3 years: 2.5?

Ben Clemens

2:31

easy under for me

not because I think they're in a bad spot, but b/c 2.5 out of 3 is just too high

2:32

at 2 I'm torn, I think I'd probably still take the under but I'd feel bad about it

Kip

2:32

Is ATL kind of screwed? They have at least three holes to fill (LF/SP/RP) and maybe more if you don't think Ozzie will bounce back (second basemen age horribly) or if Arcia doesn't improve. They have money to spend but it's not a huge amount if they want to avoid penalties (around $30 million). Their farm system isn't particularly deep and many of their best prospects project to be back end starters or relief pitchers.

Ben Clemens

2:33

the Braves had a truly ridiculous number of injuries last year, including the reigning MVP and Cy Young favorite, not to mention several other All Stars. BP's injury tracker has them down for 13 missing WAR last year, vs. a league average of around 5

so will they be as good as they were in 2023? probably not

but will we project them as the best team in the NLE again? almost certainly

2:34

Arcia is bad for a first division shortstop, and Albies might be more good than elite now (I've actually had him in that range for years, witness his slide down the trade value series)

2:35

but they just have a ton of good players still. I'd expect more in '25 out of Riley and Harris, I really like Schwellenbach and I think AJSS has some juice

Idiotic Failson

2:35

I agreed with you a lot until you thought that stuffing was better than pecan pie. What a brutal take.

Ben Clemens

2:35

pecan pie is my favorite pie

I'm just a savory over sweet kind of person

drhotdog

2:35

angels need either a 3B or a 2B. any chance they can poach HSK from san diego?

Ben Clemens

2:35

yeah, this feels very reasonable to me

I think that Kim's market is going to go one of two ways

2:36

one is that he picks a team where he's comfortable to sign a pillow contract. Maybe the Giants? Something west coast probably

Angels aren't out of the question here either

or: someone really wants him and so they offer him a nice five-year deal

and he just says eh, pillow contracts are overrated, let's just secure the bag now

2:37

that second option, I think a team doing that would more or less guarantee signing him, whereas if he's signing 2/40 with an opt out after the first year, a ton of teams would offer him that

so if you want to guarantee Kim's services, you offer him a long-term deal. If you're comfortable taking a risk that he'll sign somehwere else based on fit, enter the pillow contract sweepstakes

John

2:37

“Any pie is a good pie”

Ben Clemens

2:38

oh man, has anyone had the frozen pies from Ace Hardware?

I didn't know this was a thing and then I picked one up for this Thanksgiving because I was doing an Ace run (snow shovel, some random wrench) and remembered that they have a freezer near the checkout

I learned from my neighbor that this is a common thing at Ace locations, and the pie was absolutely amazing

like, maybe the best apple pie I've ever had

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