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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/21/20

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Ben Clemens

2:17

I've been wondering about this question myself. I don't think that baseball has a ton of ability to force the union's hand in this one, which means it's largely a negotiating tactic for now

2:18

But I'm not particularly confident in that read. The owners have been more willing to push for changes than I've expected of them in the last few years, so my read might be off

Jeff

2:18

Thoughts on Ryne Stanek's dramatic velocity drop from 98 to 96? I'm interested in that splitter and slider, but am also scared the velocity drop means injury is coming

Ben Clemens

2:18

I'm largely ignoring velo stuff for the 2020 season, because there are just too many factors conspiring to make things confusing. Changing workloads, abbreviated buildup, and change in measuring systems are just too much for me

2:19

I'd still be interested, but mindful of the fact that relievers like that aren't the most stable commodities

Matt Damon

2:19

MATT. DAMON.

Joshua

2:19

Nats send Robles, Kieboom, Crowe, and Denaburg to the Reds for Suarez and Castillo.......who says no?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Whoa, this would be some trade. All of the Nats' farm system in exchange for two studs. I thiiiiiink that the Nats would say no but that could be because I haven't revised Robles down enough in my head

2:21

If you think he's just a league average guy then maybe it's fair, but if he's still a borderline All Star-level guy a few years down the road, I think that's too much for the Nats to give

That'd be a heck of a trade though

Angel Hernandez

2:21

You think it's more likely we're going to see Yadi in Angel red or Cardinal red next year?

Ben Clemens

2:22

Cardinal Red, though I'd take the field over the Cards at this point

Guest

2:22

Is it just me or does it seem like the entire NL Central is about to be rebuilding at the same time while also saying they’re not rebuilding.

Ben Clemens

2:22

I'll exclude the Brewers from that b/c they're just doing their usual plenty-of-spinning-plates-in-the-air thing

Isolated Thinker

2:23

My wish for the holidays is for there to be fans in the stands next season. Then I can enjoy seeing which fans come up with the best Astros trash can/cheating sign. Over a year of brainstorming. Do you think Springer on a new team will still be heavily booed?

Ben Clemens

2:24

I do, at least for a bit, but not to the same extent that Correa would be if he changed teams

Andrew

2:24

How does Eugenio Suarez not carry more trade value than Kieboom? 4 Win player 17-19. Slow start last year with off season shoulder injury into above league average hitter. 11M / year extremely reasonable

Ben Clemens

2:26

Maybe I'm a little low on Suarez, and I thought he was a year older than he is. The worry, though, is that he's trending the wrong way and if his defense takes him off of third, the uptick in strikeouts that we've seen the last two years makes hiim just a guy at first

2:27

I think I'd basically say that the market for borderline corner defenders with power bats is just really saturated which drives down his value. If you think he's a plus defender, then this isn't the case, though

Guest

2:28

The reds have spent the past couple years rebuilding then decide to sell everyone off after getting booted in the first round of the playoffs? I feel like if I was a fan of the team i'd be pretty disappointed

Ben Clemens

2:28

Oh yeah I agree. If they're really tearing the whole thing down, I would be very disappointed as a fan.

I don't know if this is a where there's smoke there's fire situation, but there is a LOT of smoke around further tear-downs

2:29

I don't think anything they've done so far is unforgiveable but getting rid of their pitching core would make no sense to me

Jeff

2:29

Defense is undervalued in a vacuum. Yay or nay?

Ben Clemens

2:30

I think I'd' say that defense is over-valued by new-age, FG-reading fans at this point

Not by a huge amount, but I find people are consistently surprised that defense-first players aren't compensated 'fairly' relative to their WAR all that often

And I think it's clear that teams don't value *most* defensive contributions as having the same stability that core offensive contributions do

2:31

The amount of surprise around Kolten Wong's option being declined is one example

Teams do stuff like that a lot, they just don't pay up for one-dimensional defenders

The Ghost of Wade Boggs

2:31

Is there a divisional bottom-dweller from last year that you think you could overhaul with enough available free-agents to get them to the playoffs this year?

Ben Clemens

2:32

I think that you could do that with the Red Sox if you count them as a bottom-dweller, and certainly the last-place New York Mets

Andrew

2:32

Possible the Reds are working on more a Retool than a Rebuild? Previous rebuild saw them trade all assets not at max value. By trading a pitching piece they can add multiple assets to round out the roster and trust the Derek Johnson/Kyle Boddy development continues to work.

Ben Clemens

2:33

I mean, call it what you will, if they trade away a pitching piece for some far-off pieces, I don't tihnk that's a plus

If they're making a lateral move that's different, but I don't see how they can actually make that happen

Particularly given their stated interest in reducing payroll

2:34

If there are actually multiple cheap and controllable assets they can get back for Castillo or Gray let's talk, but I haven't seen a lot of evidence that that's how it would go

And they have a decent amount of players who are good now but not likely to be better in three years. Straddling the line between contending now and later is weird for a team with Castellanos, Moustakas, and Suarez

Jeff

2:35

What about two way defenders? Those guys with any kind of track record of hitting

Ben Clemens

2:35

I think they get properly valued. In fact, it might be that teams value roundedness more than we think they do. One-dimensional players just don't seem to get paid what we 'think' they should be worth

2:36

Wong is kind of on the borderline of this

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