JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/21/20

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Ben Clemens

2:36

Another way to think about it is that teams are increasingly headed into non-linear player valuation

i.e. a 3 WAR player is worth a lot more than 3 1 WAR players

2:37

The good defenders and bat-only corner guys are capped out, so they naturally end up at lower valuations, because you need a combination of hitting and defense (or to be just ludicrously good at one or the other) to get to the juicy part of the value distribution

Sam

2:38

what do the cardinals do to get better? do they even do as much as go after joc?

Guest

2:38

One of you fangraphs colleagues said he thought the cards were a favorite fro Lindor, what do you think?

Ben Clemens

2:39

This would certainly be an improvement. I'm not sure if they're the favorite, but I think it's reasonable to put them in the first tier of suitors. The Indians are into quantitiy over quality in recent trade returns, which the Cardinals match up well with, and they also have a penchant for trading for stars a year before free agency and trying to extend them

Goldschmidt is a good example of this kind of trade, and I could see that happening with Lindor, though I don't think that necessarily puts them literally first

2:40

An interlude for some holiday traditions we are amending this year

My stepbrother usually makes a lovely clam dip, so we're each making it in our respective far-flung houses this year

2:41

We normally do a family book exchange -- we're doing that on a video call this year, with fancy Christmas cards subbing in for the books. We'll then mail the books out to whoever selected them

2:42

Last but not least, we are opening presents with my wife's mom on Christmas morning on a video call as well

Lots of video calls!

Jeff in T.O.

2:42

Tell me more about this clam dip????

Ben Clemens

2:42

Oh, this I can do.

It's very similar to this recipe:

https://www.foodiecrush.com/best-clam-dip-recipe/

2:43

More clam -- 1.5 cans worth of minced clams per package of cream cheese, whereas this recipe recommends 1

But same basic idea. Cream cheese, minced clams, green onions, worcestershire, and tabasco

Eat with Ruffles

2:44

I always like Clam Dip, and it just feels like the holidays because I have it exactly once a year every year

Nate

2:45

My family usually does a pretty stellar gift exchange. Since we can't be together, we gave gifts to other families. Find time this holiday season to do good! The world needs it.

Alabama Hot Pocket

2:45

Two years ago, I was reading about how Rowdy Tellez had some of the slowest bat speed in recent memory, with one expert saying it was like watching someone swing a bat underwater. Now, I'm being told that he's a statcast darling, and that he's a major sleeper. Has he improved his bat speed?

Ben Clemens

2:46

I hadn't heard that, but it probably says something that his highest EV came in 2020 in a shortened season. I don't have a good answer for you, though, because I dunno where to get bat speed data publicly

NashvilleSounds

2:46

Huh, I've never had clam dip. Given how good smoked trout dip is, I'll give it a try.

Ben Clemens

2:47

Yeah fish dips always beat my expectations

Lindor

2:47

Wouldn't my contract demands take me out of the Cards plans? Cards extended Goldy for 5 years $130M. I am probably looking at twice that as the starting point no?

Ben Clemens

2:47

Certainly possible. Thta's why they aren't my favorites to land him

2:48

You could see them focusing on Lindor because so many of their contracts fall off next year

Carpenter has a vesting option he won't likely hit

Fowler and Miller will be gone

2:49

Carlos Martinez has a club option that probably won't get exercised

If they want to sign Lindor and also don't want to exceed, say, 2019's high payroll, they easily still can

Guest

2:49

Every year I scratch my head when I look at the comp balance round of the draft & certain teams stick out---most notably, the Cards. They haven't seemed to have much trouble competing, especially relative to other teams in that set. Are they truly deserving of being in this group? Or are they the only team that seems to know what they're doing with the pick?

Ben Clemens

2:49

As I understand it, they're in the Comp Round because of Market size -- you can be there for revenue, market size, or both

2:50

Oakland is just as weird to me for different reasons -- they have a big market! It's the same market as the Giants and no one says the Giants are a small-market team

GoMs

2:50

Why aren’t Mariners in on any stars this off-season? ...or are they?

Ben Clemens

2:51

I think they are in on pitching some, and are maybe kicking the tires on people they think can be tentpoles in 2-3 years. I think they'll end up aiming for pitchers with high upside but question marks, because they can use a year to sort out what they have

2:52

Paxton would be pleasingly symmetrical and also is the exact kind of pitcher teams who are improving but not yet good should be trying to sign

Jeff

2:53

Do the Cardinals actually have anyone to trade for Lindor? Is Cleveland really bowled over by like...Tommy Edman?

Ben Clemens

2:53

I think that if the Indians are still doing the many-prospect return thing, sure

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