JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/1/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/1/21

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Ben Clemens

2:12

But getting healthy after his shoulder bothered him the entire time he was with the Cards was big

And he's been a 121 wRC+ hitter over the past 3 years even with him being hurt for 2 of them

That's a nice batter

bosoxforlife

2:12

Is it possible, perish the thought, that 2021 is the season that has the work stoppage. Lockout or strike, call it what you will, even before a new CBA is attempted to be negotiated.

Ben Clemens

2:13

Nah, I don't think so

Doesn't really seem like a solid bargaining position for either side to move early to stop play

Guest

2:13

Do you agree that the Cardinals taking on 7yrs / $165M for Arendado is a huge risk? I feel like everyone is overlooking just how bad he was last year and acting like there is a 100% chance his shoulder is fine for the longer term.

Ben Clemens

2:13

Surplus value is only part of the picture

2:14

It's hard to concentrate that much WAR in one player, and the Cards have done a really good job finding excess value out of random roster spots

With a huge problem developing 4 WAR players

Even if Arenado ends up underwater on a surplus value front there's a ton of value in concentrating it like that

No one has looked at Cardinals rosters in recent years and thought 'oh if they didn't have Matt Carpenter on the books they'd be able to afford so much more stuff'

2:15

They've thought 'how come this team has no all stars'?

Al Roquefort

2:15

What FA signing or trade would you characterize as sneaky good and why?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I'm still gonna say Mike Minor here

The Royals needed pitching, the contract is a nice level such that if he's good while the team is bad he can be traded, and I also think it was just a bargain either wya

George

2:16

What do you make of the weird corner outfield market? Eaton, Schwarber, Joc, Rosario all got basically the same contract but it felt like the money amounts were in a extremely weird order.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Yeah, shows there was value in signing early

For players

Teams who wanted to make big acquisitions in free agency were willing to sign whoever would accept the deal first

Duffy Dyer

2:16

What is your favorite junk food?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Tortilla chips and salsa, and it's just not even close

2:17

Definitely my biggest junk food weakness

Simon Garf, Your Uncle

2:18

The Mariners have a number of prospects who have yet to make their debut (Kelenic, Trammell, Gilbert, Cal Raleigh) and a number of guys whose major league value is as yet unknown (JP Crawford, Ty France, Shed Long, Dylan Moore, Evan White). As you can see, that's a lot of uncertainty. Would you sign a few known quantities (e.g. Wong, Tai Walker) to raise the floor and give the team a chance at competing in 2021, or, just kind of sort the wheat from the chaff this season and gear up for 2022?

Ben Clemens

2:19

I think that plan is reasonable, teams signing a few people the year before they're ready and figuring out who works has been a good plan in general

I'm more into Taijuan Walker than Wong for them just b/c Wong is probably going to take a shorter deal and will cost a bit more, but I'd like either move for them if the prices were reasonable

bosoxforlife

2:19

Am i just hallucinating or are the Red Sox a lot better than they are being treated by the various media?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Oh totally agree

I think they're in the Jays/Rays tier in the ALE

Houzer

2:20

What would the Tigers need to offer Washington in order to nab Kieboom? Would Skubal do the trick?

Ben Clemens

2:20

Prospect-for-prospect challenge trades don't happen very often, and I don't see why this one would

It'd be different if they weren't both roughly similar levels -- limited MLB time should probably be in AAA

2:21

Skubal is actually older

Guest

2:21

The Fangarphs depth charts have the Yankees with the best rotation in baseball. You buying the big bounce-back from Kluber and Taillon?

Ben Clemens

2:21

I am, at least a little bit

It also helps to have Gerrit Cole!

RIP Harambe

2:21

Giants clear books post 2021 + their recent track record of free agency success = a near future dark horse?

Ben Clemens

2:21

Yes, I think so

2:22

The major downside is that the NLW is going to be really tough for the next few years at least

Matt

2:22

What do you think Willy Adames' trade value is? Seems like the Rays could roll with Wendle and Walls until Wander is ready and not suffer that much

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