JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/1/21

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2:22

Out of the multitude of potential trade options (with varying levels of feasibility), which SS would you expect to make the most sense in terms of acquisition cost/performance expectations for the Reds? There are obvious financial *and* prospect limitations, but I still believe that the Reds want to make a "winning" move

Drew

2:22

How would you address SS need for the Reds ? Would you think T. Mahle would be good starting point for W. Adames trade ? Thanks

Ben Clemens

2:22

Reds shortstop questions are so hot right now

2:23

I'm not an 'industry sources' type guy but I can tell you with 100% confidence that Adames's value is a source of great disagreement across the league

2:24

Mahle is a broadly similar player to Adames at a different position, though with a lower floor and higher ceiling

2:25

I keep hearing a lot of Rays fans agitating for Luis Castillo, but I don't see it; it's an extra year of control for Adames but in exchange Castillo is a lot better right now

2:26

I think that the most likely outcome might still be Amed Rosario

Simon Garf, Your Uncle

2:26

I fail to see how the Padres do not have the best rotation in baseball. Maybe Gore and Lamet are being discounted? Or maybe I'm counting Clevinger in my mental calculus.

Ben Clemens

2:26

Yeah, eh, with Clevinger I think they might have the best rotation

2:27

I think the only thing holding them back is that thye have one of the best 10 starters in baseball as their ace

Instead of one of the best 2, like the Mets and Yankees have

Simon Garf, Your Uncle

2:27

Do you think Trevor Bauer has also befuddled the market with an amazing 2020 stat line, but underlying doubt about his future performance, particularly if "grippy stuff" may have helped the spin?

Ben Clemens

2:28

This is definitely a hot question with Bauer, but I think it misunderstands the state of the rest of the league

I hear a lot of people saying that hey, maybe enforcement will step up and Bauer will lose some spin

Yeah uh, 90% of pitchers are using grippy things on the ball

It's not like only Bauer would be affected

2:29

I think that a bigger question about Bauer's 2020 is whether his ERA is reflective of a huge step forward or just variance

It's not like he ascended to some new plane of swinging strike rate

the NLC had a weak overall slate

2:30

He ran a .215 BABIP for 11 starts and we're saying he was just some pine tar away from being an ace? Eh

Big eh from me

Isolated Thinker

2:30

What subtle move(s) can the Marlins make to remain somewhat competitive?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I think they could use a starter to spell the youngsters (Elieser Hernandez is 25 and the oldest starter in their rotation at the moment)

Red Ruffing

2:31

Fill in the blank. The next market inefficiency in baseball is ____.

Ben Clemens

2:31

I thought Kevin's answer on this earlier today was quite solid, injury prevention

2:32

I think pitcher usage remains a potential large one. Six man rotation injury research is where I'd be dropping some R&D coin if I were a tema

George

2:32

I know this is crazy, but if the Nats offered Soto for Franco, Arozarena, and Patino would the Rays accept?

Ben Clemens

2:33

I think they would, but it's so outlandish that it's hard to exactly pin down the specifics

2:34

As great as someone might be projected, Juan Soto is basically Wander Franco's ceiling

Because Juan Soto is basically everyone's ceiling

And he's still cheap too!

Carlos Chick Correa

2:34

Are the Rays admirable for doing a lot with a little or deplorable for not getting a better stadium and having cheapskate owners?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I'd argue that they are both of these things

2:35

It's impressive to see what they do with their constraints

Restriction breeds creativity, and seeing how the Rays front office makes it work is cool

That said, the fact that Stu Sternberg gives them so little to work with, that sucks

2:36

They are just using the fact that MLB has a weird structure that lets you squeeze excess value out of players' first 3-4 years to pay no money

We're supposed to celebrate that? They could be better by spending more money, I don't know how it's admirable that they don't spend more

bosoxforlife

2:37

Do you think teams are fighting a ghost when they try to find a way to prevent pitcher's arms from falling off but still get enough usage to warrant the massive salaries?

Ben Clemens

2:37

I do in some cases. If you have Jacob deGrom, yeah, shut up with the 6 man rotation

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