JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/12/24

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, let's start chatting. I'm gonna make this a brisk one hour chat hopefully, because I have an article to get finished and some home renovation supplies to buy.

2:00

It seems like the players are winning a lot more in arbitration this year-is there anything to take from this or just a 1 year thing?

Ben Clemens

2:00

Sounds interesting to look into, but I have not looked into it at all and so my first guess is that it's a one-time thing.

Axe

2:00

Are the Yankees underrated? Projections have them top tier in AL but public sentiment is down

Ben Clemens

2:00

Eh, I have no idea if they're underrated or even what underrated means

2:01

I do think that Yankees fans are more down on the team than models and betting markets though

Frank

2:01

When is prospect week?

Ben Clemens

2:01

Content starts tomorrow

The person who asks the lunch question

2:02

What's for lunch?

Ben Clemens

2:02

I had a bagel sandwich (bacon, egg, cheddar) at 11

so I guess that

(I'm in central time at the moment)

Jimmy Smokes

2:02

Am I crazy? Seems like Matt Chapman is the perfect fit to push the tigers into the top tier of contenders in the division, but they seem to be publicly signaling that they are not pursuing him. For a team on the precipice, with no payroll obligations long term and fans that have sat through a 10 year rebuild, it’s very frustrating

Ben Clemens

2:03

I'm surprised. I do think he's a good fit for them and 3b feels like a weakness still

Tacoby Bellsbury

2:03

Who's your all-time favorite French Canadian MLB player?

Ben Clemens

2:03

After looking through a list, isn't Edouard Julien the only real choice?

2:04

oh no that was active players

I mean my favorite is still Julien but I would take Gagne and Morneau over him still so far

Space Needle

2:04

What do you think is the next fashionable innovation in contracts now that options/opt-outs, deferred money, and pre-arb extensions have become pervasive?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I think it's the expanding option style contracts that a lot of pre-arb stars have signed of late

where both team and player have differing options that semi depend on performance levels

I also like the risk reversal style contracts that the Padres signed with Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha last year

2:06

where there's an out of the money team option on one side and an out of the money player option on the other

Nat

2:06

Do FG projections take into account whether a player is expecting a baby? I can't imagine the lack of sleep etc. helps with play, but I also don't know of a study. Then again, every now and then a player has a kid and does great for the rest of the year.

Ben Clemens

2:06

haha we definitely do not

Brunansky runs it down

2:07

It's been reported that the suddenly cheapo Red Sox would be interested in Montgomery "if his market collapses." But what does that mean? I assume he wants more than he's been offered so far, but surely we're talking about relatively minor differences, right?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I think that's just talking to take up space tbh

"I'd buy a 10 dollar lunch for six dollars"

okay, cool, more at 1

John Fisher

2:07

Am I paying Mick Akers at the LVRJ enough for all his fawning and watercarrying? He's been very reliable about putting out puff pieces for me anytime there's negative press.

Ben Clemens

2:08

I'm not a Vegas local so I get a lot more national coverage of the A's, but if John Fisher is somehow buying favorable coverage, he's doing a very poor job of it on the whole

Wrights_Back

2:08

In finance, we typically assess returns with regard to volatility.   An investment with the same expected return but greater volatility is typically considered inferior.
My question is - how do major league teams consider this?
ZIPS is a framework, but how is this practically used?
Eg, if I have two players with the same WAR but one has a greater volatility of outcomes, is his WAR more heavily discounted?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I think teams do to some extent, but the difference in volatility from one player to the next is not particularly extreme

like, in finance you can have t-bills and junior tranche CMBS or something

there's no baseball equivalent

mersilis

2:09

Thanks for the tag line for this chat. Was hopeful that if table games and lunch were in bounds here, then NFL overtime strategy would be too. Has FG crunched the numbers to assess just how bad Shanahan's decision to receive in OT was -- as well as his focus on getting the ball "third" when the receiving team has control over whether that "third" possession ever happens (through a 2-pt conversion or otherwise)?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Yes let's talk Super Bowl briefly

me and Sean Dolinar have been talking about this today

when the 49ers took the ball first I was like "that's really dumb"

then 10 seconds later I thought "oh wait it doesn't matter"

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