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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/12/24

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Ben Clemens

2:09

then another 10 seconds later I thought "is it good?"

then 10 more seconds I thought "wait no it's bad"

2:10

I definitely do not think this is an obvious one

I would have preferred to get the ball second in the end

for the informational asymmetry

bottom of the ninth style thing

2:11

Curious a)what our readers think and b)if there's some good FanGraphs but football style analysis of this out there

Nate

2:11

The disrespect to Abraham Toro in regards to French-Canadian players will not stand. He's French-Canadian AND Venezuelan.

Ben Clemens

2:11

Look I'm one of the biggest Abraham Toro fans on the planet

and, no

Guest

2:11

why does wOBA weigh walks and hbps differently?

Ben Clemens

2:12

So, that's a feature and not a bug. Since pitchers exert more control over when they walk a batter than when they hit a batter, walks disproportionately happen in base/out states where the baserunner is less valuable

so if you know Player A took 10 walks and Player B got hit 10 times, on average Player B probably increased his team's chances of scoring by more

dust

2:12

Morneau isn't French Canadian, the last name is a red herring

Ben Clemens

2:12

What

2:13

outrageous

Lost in Denver

2:13

Any chance the Rockies can sign Montgomery, Snell, or even Clevinger? Feels like they haven't added a top notch pitcher since Mike Hampton.

Ben Clemens

2:13

No, no, sure

Pat

2:13

The problem is the Tigers have a Top 30 prospect (Keith) & a top 75 (Jung) , one of whom is slated to play 3B. If they could get Chapman on a 1 year deal maybe, but, can't see blocking one of those 2 for multiple years.

Ben Clemens

2:13

I mean Keith is gonna be in the majors this year and we have him penciled in at second

but yeah, there are some prospect issues

"we might have a player who can play acceptably in the future so let's not get a good player now" is a defeatist mentality though

2:14

like I'm not saying everyone needs to go full Reds and sign Jeimer Candelario as their 17th third baseman

but the odds of both Keith and Jung panning out AND Chapman not getting hurt are not particularly high

Sonny

2:14

Happy Lundi Gras Ben. Like 5 playoff contenders have a Blake Snell shaped hole at the top of their rotation. Who blinks?

Ben Clemens

2:15

Happy Lundi Gras indeed. I'm in New Orleans this week, in fact (my sister in law lives here and we're visiting), so taking tomorrow off to take in the big day and then home upkeep starts in earnest

Derek

2:15

My take is the 49ers made the right call with taking the ball 1st (despite maybe not knowing the rules?) - I think they just should have been more aggressive and gone for it on 4th & 4. Definitely would be interesting to somehow quantify just how much the extra information is worth in comparison to getting the 3rd possession, though!

Ben Clemens

2:15

I've read that the Chiefs wanted the ball first too, not that that proves anything

I really think it's a nuanced question

2:16

I don't think the answer is obviously yes or obviously no. Like plenty of times the order doesn't matter at all

Random Fact Generator

2:16

Tim Wakefield is one of five pitchers in MLB history to record 15+ starts and 15+ saves in the same season

Ben Clemens

2:16

Ooh fun

New UK Fan

2:16

Re volatility, surely the equivalent is hitters and pitchers? Pitchers there's always more chance of a breakdown. (Do you know if teams factor that into their option valuation?)

Ben Clemens

2:16

They do a little, but that chance of breakdown also just feeds into the projection

fewer innings in future years, that kinda thing

Mike

2:17

I think the extra information is really important. Also, I never once thought SF was going to win that game.

Ben Clemens

2:17

As a casual niners fan, I was not feeling good about the game at any point

they just were not capitalizing and you know that Mahomes is gonna get it going by game's end

Munson Burner

2:17

John Means was the ace on some bad O's teams. What are your thoughts on him returning to form and surpassing Bradish into the #2 role on their staff?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I'm skeptical, and I do like Means

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