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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/12/24

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Guest

2:35

RE: Boras waiting too long, I feel like people forget about Bryant, Harper, and Correa* all waiting until March to sign, and I don't think anyone would say "they could've gotten a better deal in December" (assuming everyone understood the deal with Correa's leg)

Pat

2:35

RE- Super Bowl- If SF is so scared of Mahomes scoring a TD that they took the ball first in OT, so they could get the 3rd crack at it shouldn't they have then went for it on 4th & 4 from the 5 yard line instead of kicking a FG?

Ben Clemens

2:35

probably

2:36

I think that Shanahan is just not very good at in-game decision making for how good he is at turning defenses into pretzels

Russell

2:36

How reliable is a pitcher's pull%? Do pitchers realistically have any control over the spray angle of their pitches?

Ben Clemens

2:36

Great question that I don't know the answer to!

But probably will in a few weeks b/c pulled fly balls are in the zeitgeist right now

Tom

2:36

Is there a non-rocks fall Dodgers die scenario where LA doesn't win the NLW?

Ben Clemens

2:37

Yeah I think so, in the same way that they have had a few weird blips in recent years

Giants going ham, the game 163 from 2018 or w/e

not likely but certainly possible

Tyguy

2:37

Can you say more about your home renovations? What are you working on and how are you feeling about it?

Ben Clemens

2:38

we own a place that we rent out, tenants just left, so we're replacing a lot of things, fixing some holes in the wood floors, repairing a cabinet, touching up some paint, just a lot of little jobs that you have to do all of from time to time

Uncle Spike

2:38

Thank you for not saying, 'It's gonna be May'

Ben Clemens

2:38

oh man now I'm sad that I didn't

Matt VW

2:38

Now that the Chiefs have repeated, MLB has the longest back to back drought of the four major sports by far. Is this just a luxury tax thing, or is there more to it than that?

Ben Clemens

2:39

I think that it's a length of postseason series relative to regular season thing

the best teams in football get byes fairly often which gives them a HUGE edge in winning the SB

the best teams in basketball win at a crazy clip

baseball has neither

so I think it's randomness plus disadvantageous setup (disadvantageous for repeats)

2:40

that said the Giants happening to go out of order doesn't mean THAT much

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

2:40

Boras doesn't win EVERY time, but overall he wins more money and more often than anyone

Ben Clemens

2:40

Totally agree with this

His tactics don't always work

but they work quite well on average

hebrew

2:40

i know you said no more football but someone crunched the numbers on Twitter and kicking/receiving are basically identical choices in the newfangled overtime

Ben Clemens

2:40

hit me with a link please

Mr. Burrito

2:40

Double OT question: Will the Dodgers swap Lux and a prospect for Adames? As a Dodgers fan I like Lux but I'd love Adames. His D and power would be perfect for the Dodgers...

Ben Clemens

2:40

I don't think they will

I definitely would not

2:41

I mean, I don't like what they actually did either

shortstop is not a great place to punt defense

but I'm down on Adames overall

I don't think he's bad

I just think that he's more plus than elite

and I dunno, I'm a sucker for Lux

hebrew

2:42

OT win probabilities, courtesy of Brian Burke of ESPN:

https://twitter.com/bburkeESPN/status/1509266427089506304?s=20

2:43

Rubbing oil on every pan would be insane and bad care advice. Stainless steel pans absolutely should not be treated like that - no oil till they're preheated. Bad rule of thumb that only applies to cast iron or carbon steel, and even those two should be treated differently.

Ben Clemens

2:43

Okay! very useful

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