JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/12/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/12/24

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Ben Clemens

2:51

and agree that it's not well captured by our projections

That said, Pecota has the Dodgers a hair ahead of the Braves, and they do a bit more with injury volatility

2:52

Dan's ZiPS standings have the two teams within two wins

so yeah, I think you're right

Guest

2:52

Is there a really good team right now who you think might be headed for a big, near-term fall?

Ben Clemens

2:52

I don't think this is likely, but I'll put the Astros first on this list

2:53

here's my thinking: I think that a lot of the really good teams right now are a)really good and b)built in a way that makes them pretty fail-resistant

2:54

whether it's the Dodgers and Rays with their huge record of churning out good players from within, the Dodgers and Yankees with their spending, the Dodgers and Braves with a bunch of stars to where you'd need to see a lot of injuries to have a big problem

I mean, you get the idea

the Astros don't quite fit on any of these axes, I don't think

2:55

because they don't have as many megastars, or young players on discounted contracts, or a recent farm system bonanza, or a great farm system right now

and they haven't spent at quite the top levels as everyone else

Guest

2:55

what topic do you spend the most time thinking about besides baseball?

Ben Clemens

2:55

games

I'm just a hopeless puzzle solver

I play marvel snap, magic the gathering, lots of board games, do learned league, crosswords, etc.

2:56

I just love strategy

I don't think it's an accident that all of my jobs have been daily output based rather than long term project based

played chess as a kid, loved drawing up football plays when I played in high school, etc.

baseball analysis is just a great expression of it

bosoxforlife

2:56

Is the Lucas Giolito contract the worst one of this off-season, or do you agree with me that it belongs in the pantheon of awful contracts along with Pujols, Rendon and Bonilla?

Ben Clemens

2:56

I would not remotely put it up there with the worst contracts of all time

it's just not enough money

2:57

I do agree that it was an overpay, and that's with me being a Giolito fan overall

Thomas

2:57

Russell Martin has to be pretty high on the list of French Canadian baseball players

Ben Clemens

2:57

yeah he's probably second behind Gagne since Morneau isn't french canadian

Dave

2:57

Rooting for Ben Rice to be a dude because there has never been a more apt nickname than "Uncle Ben"

Guest

2:57

Wouldn’t any team, even the low budgeteers be happy to get Snell with what the NYY offered a while ago - 6 yrs, 150mm?

Ben Clemens

2:58

I mean the low budgeteers just wouldn't because they don't have 150 million in spending power allocated to them

but.... yeah

ignoring that, yes

Ben

2:58

About football OT strategy, my only thought is that by taking the ball first if you both score the same, then you scoring on third possession means you win. But second mover can always try to outscore you (go for TD over FG, 2 over extra point, etc)

Ben Clemens

2:58

That thread posted up above was pretty definitive

it's just 50% either way b/c the effects offset

i believe that

2:59

that said it's gonna be a topic in the bay for quite a while

Guest

2:59

Thoughts on the Cardinals hiring Chaim Bloom? I've been pretty tired of their solution to every open job seemingly be "Hire Former Cardinal" and think it has had a poor long term effect on the institutional knowledge of the team and much of the reason they seemingly struggle analytically. So I'm happy about it just for that reason

Ben Clemens

2:59

I acually like it!

yeah exactly

I'm not entirely sure I agree with you on the institutional knowledge part

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