JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/14/22

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

I'm going to grab a coffee really quickly, and then we'll get down to business.

2:02

Okay, let's go

Hacked off in Austin

2:02

We all know the owners have dragged their feet, but the counters from MLBPA have not set land speed records either. Why can't their be a counter from the union today?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I don't really think it matters much

The owners' proposals have thus far all been far worse than the previous CBA

The luxury tax increases they're proposing are outrageous, particularly in conjunction with the deflating cap

2:04

If you and I are debating how we split a cake, and I open with me getting 60% and you open with you getting 60%, we can meet in the middle

If I open with me getting 60% and you open with kicking me in the mouth and taking the cake

What's the point of me countering?

Guest

2:04

instead of agreeing to a CBA, would the owners and players ever just agree to binding arbitration? like where one side presents their case the the other presents theirs, and the arbiter decides?

Ben Clemens

2:04

Definitely not

Neither side would agree to it

Deep Impact

2:05

Care to take a guess at number of ABs for Daulton Varsho? He's a nice hack at catcher in fantasy.

Ben Clemens

2:05

I'm a buyer at the 400-PA level that it seems most of our projections are at (PA's easier to handicap for me than AB's)

2:06

I think he'll play enough center that his playing time will look GREAT for a catcher

I think he's a valuable fantasy asset, totally agreed

Hyde

2:06

Kelenick over or under 3 WAR this year? Does he ever have a 5 WAR season?

Ben Clemens

2:07

I'll take the under on 3 WAR this year, but 'yes' on if he'll ever have a 5 WAR season

I think those are just the safe bets

Although maybe 'no' is better for 5 WAR season

But yeah, I like Kelenic, but I don't think he's ready

2:08

No shame in that, he's 22 and mashed in the second half of his rookie year

Bob

2:08

What more do you see the Cardinals doing? Lefty bat like Schwarber and a reliever like Joe Kelly?

GBS42

2:08

The Cardinals' primary DH this year will be...???

Ben Clemens

2:08

I love the idea that the Cards are going to do more. That hasn't really been their MO in recent years, though I do think they'll get a reliever

I think their primary DH will be Lars Nootbaar

Greg

2:09

Are you of any research that looks at how players perform against pitchers/hitters of various skill levels?

Say you have a batter that is weirdly above average against ace type pitchers but weirdly below average against AAAA starters/relievers. Anything that has looked into that? I would assume it would be difficult due to small sample size, season to season variability, and the difficulty of arbitrary cutoffs for bucketing players into tiers, but it interests me nonetheless.

Ben Clemens

2:09

I haven't seen anything on it, and yeah, the sample size issues would be extreme

I remember we looked into this on Chin Music one time in regards to Tyler O'Neill, who was very bad against good pitchers in 2021 (and great against bad pitchers)

In his previous career, he'd split the other wya

Appa Yip Yip

2:09

If there was a player with only 20% hard contact, but also only 20% soft contact, and 60% medium contact, what kind of a hitter would that look like and what position would you want to roster him at?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Really depends on his plate discipline

2:10

I'm generally not a fan of medium contact guys because medium contact isn't as much better than soft contact as hard contact is over medium

If that makes sense

But if you're David Fletcher? Sign me up

Particularly if you can play an up-the-middle position competently

Guest

2:10

Let's say the lockout is still going on July 4. Would / could the players consider doing an all-star game (or even like an 8 team tournament), with a homerun derby/skills competition and sell it to a network to broadcast to replenish the strike fund? Or would the logistics be too difficult to work out

Ben Clemens

2:10

I'm guessing no

2:11

I think the logistics would be really difficult

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